College football odds Week 14: Why Alabama is your best bet this weekend (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Conference championship weekend is here with postseason positioning and conference titles on the line. I'm loving this week's board, so let's jump into my best bets of the week, with odds via FOX Bet.
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (12 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
When researching this game, two things stuck out to me. First, there's no Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game for the first time since 1988. And the second thing that jumps out is the point spread.
In the earlier meeting, Oklahoma State was a 4-point favorite at home in early October. In that game, Baylor was in a tough spot, coming off an emotional win over Iowa State — surviving on a failed 2-point conversion in the final minute — and started slowly before losing 24-14. Two months later, and on a neutral field, Oklahoma State opened as a 6.5-point favorite? It seems a little high, which is why the number has come toward Baylor. Toss in the fact that Oklahoma State was coming off a thrilling win over rival Oklahoma last week, and there's a letdown opportunity for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys.
Still, it's tough to back Baylor here, given the uncertainty at quarterback. Dual-threat starter Gerry Bohanon is nursing a hamstring injury and hasn't played since leaving the win over Kansas State on Nov. 20. So now your likely starter is freshman Blake Shapen? He was a more highly touted baseball recruit than football (he's playing both at Baylor).
When you don't trust one QB situation, and on the other side, you have the up-and-down Spencer Sanders, the safe move is to play the under.
I'd lean to the Baylor side — always give me the underdog in the rematch plus the off-the-rivalry win spot for the Cowboys — but the under is my best bet in this game.
PICK: Under 46.5 points combined at FOX Bet
No. 21 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (4 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
Houston is no pushover. Led by junior quarterback Clayton Tune, the Houston offense has topped 40 points seven times this season. Tune has 19 TDs and just two interceptions over the last seven games. Outside of a hiccup against Memphis, he's been terrific since the season-opening drubbing against Texas Tech when he threw four interceptions.
After two rocky years in Houston, Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are rolling, and they can give the Bearcats fits behind "Sack Avenue" — a fearsome defensive line that is fourth in the country in sacks (41).
One tiny knock on Cincy QB Desmond Ridder (42-5, AAC career leader in total offense) is he holds the ball too long. He's taken 18 sacks this year, and Georgia got him eight times in the bowl loss last year. Still, it's tough not to like the favorite here to win.
Cincinnati hasn't lost a home game at Nippert Stadium since November 2017. They've won 26 straight at home. You have to wonder if the early College Football Playoff rankings rattled the Bearcats in November, and as a result, failed to cover against Navy, Tulane, Tulsa and USF in a nervy four-game stretch.
They were utterly dominant against a good SMU team and covered easily against ECU last week. The Bearcats control their destiny now, and a victory would make Cincinnati the first non-Power 5 school to make the College Football Playoff.
The Bearcats defense is led by potential first-round pick Ahmad Gardner in the secondary. Look for that unit to shut down the Cougars passing game and for Cincinnati to pull away in the second half to finish an undefeated regular season.
The total has come down from 55 to 53.5. I have my eye on the first half under, as I see the Bearcats coming out a little skittish with so much on the line against the tough Cougars defense.
PICK: Under 27 first-half points combined at FOX Bet
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama (4 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)
Here is the wildest stat of championship weekend: Since 2008, Alabama has only been an underdog five times under Nick Saban. That's in 192 games. In those five games, the Crimson Tide has won four of them. For the trivia nerds: Tim Tebow and Florida beat Alabama 31-20 in 2008 to cover the spread. Simply put, Alabama isn't used to being in this situation. And the public is all over undefeated Georgia.
Out of principle, you have to take Nick Saban in this spot. Yes, the Crimson Tide are probably a year away. The backfield is too depleted — a freshman in the SEC title game is a big ask — and the offensive line that has struggled for much of the season (permitted seven sacks vs. Auburn, and four vs. Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M) faces an elite defense.
Georgia leads the country in scoring defense and yards per play allowed. It's not unreasonable to think that Alabama totally gets shut down and blown out here. But give me the underdog.
I'd love this number at 7, but there's a reason the sportsbooks are so reluctant to hang the line at a touchdown. Every professional gambler would take it.
Georgia hasn't played a close game since the opener against Clemson, and no opponent has been within two touchdowns of the Bulldogs in the second half.
I'm not sure Bill O'Brien is the guy to cook up a plan to pull the upset here, but the Georgia offense has trouble getting margin. If QB Bryce Young can get the ball to Jameson Williams (13 TDs, 20.67 yards per catch) or John Metchie (90 receptions, seventh in the country), the Tide are a couple of splash plays from making this game interesting.
The coach under the most pressure on championship weekend is Kirby Smart (0-3 vs. Saban), so give me the dog.
PICK: Alabama (+6.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
It's a miracle Iowa is even here. First, rallying to beat Nebraska on the road last week, and then needing Wisconsin to choke against lowly Minnesota. But here we are.
The Hawkeyes are double-digit underdogs and feature perhaps the worst offense to ever reach the Big Ten title game. This upset would be epic given how difficult it has been for Iowa to score points this season.
The Hawkeyes were extremely lucky to start 6-0, riding turnovers (plus 13, third in the nation), and a ridiculous six non-offensive touchdowns (three interceptions, one fumble, one kickoff and one punt).
If you just look at the numbers, there are zero cases for Iowa to win this game, much less keep it close. Michigan is statistically better in every facet of the game. Of course, that leaves out that the Wolverines are coming off the biggest win the school has had in the last decade, taking down Ohio State. Jim Harbaugh has finally broken through to the conference championship game, and the playoff looms.
Short of Michigan losing focus and fumbling this game away, the Wolverines should roll here. Still, you know the gambling truism about double-digit favorites — nobody's ever made big money in the long run, laying 10 plus points.
Given what Harbaugh has been through the last few years — constantly losing the big game — it would be on-brand for him to blow this game just a week after finally toppling rival Ohio State. But the talent gap is too significant, and I'll be surprised if the Wolverines don't hammer the Hawkeyes.
PICK: Michigan (-11 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 11 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.
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