College football odds Week 14: How to bet Utah-USC

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The Utah Utes and USC Trojans will face off Friday night for a showdown between top 20 teams that will determine which squad wins the Pac-12 conference.

The 9-3 Utes come into this game after defeating Colorado 63-21 in Week 13. Utah's three losses this season were to Florida, UCLA and Oregon.

The Trojans got an impressive 38-27 win over Notre Dame last weekend. The only blemish on SC's resume this season was a 43-42 loss to these very Utes in Week 7. 

Can Southern Cal keep its College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes alive with a win at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas? Or will Utah get its second win over the Trojans this year to win the Pac-12?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between Utah and USC, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet).

No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC (8 p.m. ET Friday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Point spread: USC -3 (USC favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Utah covers)
Moneyline: USC -154 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $16.49 total); Utah +120 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 67.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

USC faces Utah for the Pac-12 title game. This is a rematch from earlier this season when Utah got the thrilling victory in Salt Lake City. In that game, the Trojans jumped out to a quick 21-7 lead, and then the Utes slowly climbed back. Utah scored a late touchdown plus a 2-point conversion with 48 seconds left to win. 

The final score was Utah 43, USC 42. An instant classic with 59 first downs and 1,118 total yards combined. I expect another close game in Las Vegas.

These teams approach the game of football very differently. USC’s offense is high-powered, and led by their incredibly talented quarterback, Caleb Williams. Without him, SC would not be in this game. The Trojans spread out opposing defenses to find favorable matchups before attacking with their elite weapons. Receivers Jordan Addison, Tahj Washington and Mario Williams each average 15 yards per catch or more. Running backs Austin Jones and Raleek Brown are able to supplement the passing attack, where they take advantage of defenders more focused on the aerial display.

Utah’s offense ranks ninth in points per drive. The Utes focus on rushing the ball, finding their tight ends and not making mistakes. Their rushing success rate ranks fifth in the country, and they are superb when rushing in critical situations. Quarterback Cam Rising has an ability to calmly find his targets while also capitalizing on his legs. 

However, their passing attack does not have the elite weapons USC has. Utah’s top target is tight end Dalton Kincaid, a future Day 2 NFL draft pick. Kincaid leads the team in targets with 90. Devaughn Vele, the one reliable wide receiver on the Utes, is next with 81 targets. After that, it drops to 38 targets for Micah Bernard — their third-down back. Essentially, Utah’s passing game is Kincaid and Vele.

What sets these squads apart are their defenses. USC’s defense finished the regular season ranked 107th in points per drive while forcing 26 turnovers over 12 games. 

Utah’s defense finished 28th in points per drive. However, the Utes were prone to allow points against the better offenses they faced this season. UCLA and USC each scored 42 points in back-to-back weeks against the Utah defense. 

The Trojans defense is led by highlight-reel players like Tuli Tuipulotu, a stud who leads the country with 12.5 sacks. The Utes defense, on the other hand, is a collective effort. They just play well together.

On paper, you’d take the more well-rounded team with championship game experience in the Utes. However, USC has an "it" factor in Williams. Caleb cancels out all other issues that the team might have. He almost never gets sacked, and if he does have to run, he’s flat-out faster than the defender chasing him. There’s just no answer at the moment to stopping this offense. 

USC is a ridiculous plus-23 in turnover margin. That's eight turnovers better than No. 2 (Duke University). Even more impressive is that USC is plus-11 in turnover margin in its four games against ranked opponents. SC has only lost a single fumble this season, and Williams has been outstanding at avoiding interceptions. The Trojans seem to have the mojo, and no matter how often we think their turnover luck is over, it’s clearly not. Nothing I've seen makes me believe this is the game where it all goes sideways.

Utah needed a career game from Kincaid, some questionable penalties and a 2-point conversion to win at home. While I do believe the Utes defense will have more answers than the first meeting, I’m taking the Trojans to win and cover. This is their season. 

PICK: USC (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

A rematch from one of the best games of the season. In the first edition, USC led or was tied with Utah for over 58 minutes before a 2-point conversion by Cam Rising gave Utah the 43-42 win. 

The teams combined for 61 first downs and 1,118 yards of total offense. Don’t be surprised if the rematch is just as exciting. 

This one will be played in Vegas, where USC is expected to have a slight home-field advantage. If you are worried about Trojans QB Caleb Williams thinking about the Heisman Trophy award and a spot in the playoff, just remember that this is a revenge spot for the Trojans after that devastating loss. SC was lit up by tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first meeting, and the team has struggled defending that position all season. 

The total has been bet up from 65.5 to 67.5, and USC has taken early-week money as well. This is Utah’s fourth trip to the Pac-12 title game in five years, which could be an edge when it comes to preparation and fearlessness. If this hits 3.5, you’ve got to take Utah and the hook. I suspect this will be a close game, and I'm leaning USC. But points will be slightly tougher to come by thanks to the earlier meeting. 

Trojans on the money line is just too steep for what should be a tight one. 

PICK: Under 67.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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