College football odds Week 14: Best bets for conference championships

College football Championship Weekend is finally here! I'm counting the days, as this is one of my favorite weekends of the season.

Sure, some teams got here because of favorable schedules and because they dominated weaker competition on their side of the conference. But then you also have teams like Georgia, who took down several top-ranked teams, and Michigan, who got past The Ohio State last weekend.

So before you dive into this awesome slate of games, check out my best bets for college football Week 14 (all odds via FOX Bet).

No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC (8 p.m. ET Friday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

USC faces Utah for the Pac-12 title game. This is a rematch from earlier this season when Utah got the thrilling victory in Salt Lake City. In that game, the Trojans jumped out to a quick 21-7 lead, and then the Utes slowly climbed back. Utah scored a late touchdown plus a 2-point conversion with 48 seconds left to win. 

The final score was Utah 43, USC 42. An instant classic with 59 first downs and 1,118 total yards combined. I expect another close game in Las Vegas.

These teams approach the game of football very differently. USC’s offense is high-powered, and led by their incredibly talented quarterback, Caleb Williams. Without him, SC would not be in this game. The Trojans spread out opposing defenses to find favorable matchups before attacking with their elite weapons. Receivers Jordan Addison, Tahj Washington and Mario Williams each average 15 yards per catch or more. Running backs Austin Jones and Raleek Brown are able to supplement the passing attack, where they take advantage of defenders more focused on the aerial display.

Utah’s offense ranks ninth in points per drive. The Utes focus on rushing the ball, finding their tight ends and not making mistakes. Their rushing success rate ranks fifth in the country, and they are superb when rushing in critical situations. Quarterback Cam Rising has an ability to calmly find his targets while also capitalizing on his legs. 

However, their passing attack does not have the elite weapons USC has. Utah’s top target is tight end Dalton Kincaid, a future Day 2 NFL draft pick. Kincaid leads the team in targets with 90. Devaughn Vele, the one reliable wide receiver on the Utes, is next with 81 targets. After that, it drops to 38 targets for Micah Bernard — their third-down back. Essentially, Utah’s passing game is Kincaid and Vele.

What sets these squads apart are their defenses. USC’s defense finished the regular season ranked 107th in points per drive while forcing 26 turnovers over 12 games. 

Utah’s defense finished 28th in points per drive. However, the Utes were prone to allow points against the better offenses they faced this season. UCLA and USC each scored 42 points in back-to-back weeks against the Utah defense. 

The Trojans defense is led by highlight-reel players like Tuli Tuipulotu, a stud who leads the country with 12.5 sacks. The Utes defense, on the other hand, is a collective effort. They just play well together.

On paper, you’d take the more well-rounded team with championship game experience in the Utes. However, USC has an "it" factor in Williams. Caleb cancels out all other issues that the team might have. He almost never gets sacked, and if he does have to run, he’s flat-out faster than the defender chasing him. There’s just no answer at the moment to stopping this offense. 

USC is a ridiculous plus-23 in turnover margin. That's eight turnovers better than No. 2 (Duke University). Even more impressive is that USC is plus-11 in turnover margin in its four games against ranked opponents. SC has only lost a single fumble this season, and Williams has been outstanding at avoiding interceptions. The Trojans seem to have the mojo, and no matter how often we think their turnover luck is over, it’s clearly not. Nothing I've seen makes me believe this is the game where it all goes sideways.

Utah needed a career game from Kincaid, some questionable penalties and a 2-point conversion to win at home. While I do believe the Utes defense will have more answers than the first meeting, I’m taking the Trojans to win and cover. This is their season. 

PICK: USC (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

No. 14 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia (4 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

This one feels fairly simple to me. When Georgia wants to play like Georgia, not a single team in the country can beat the Dawgs. 

UGA has played four ranked teams — Oregon in Week 1, South Carolina in Week 3, and then conference teams in Tennessee and Mississippi State in the latter part of the regular season. The Bulldogs dominated all four opponents, rendering the games almost uncompetitive by the second half. They are about to do the same to LSU — a team that just got blown out by the Texas A&M Aggies.

The Tigers' guide to keeping the game close? Making sure the things they struggle at don’t show up all at once in this game. They don't generate explosive plays well enough to stress the Dawgs' first-ranked defense. Their offensive line is ranked 104 in pressures, which isn’t ideal against the fierce Georgia defensive line. LSU's defense is not good against the run or on third down, and that squad will need all of these things to improve in this game to keep it close. I'm wagering against that happening. 

I will take Georgia to cover this game. 

PICK: Georgia (-18.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 18.5 points

Purdue vs No. 2 Michigan (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

Last season, Michigan beat Ohio State in "The Game." Then the Wolverines made the short trip to Indianapolis, where they routed Iowa on the way to their first playoff appearance. This season, they’ve beaten Ohio State and are on the way to Indianapolis to rout Purdue before making a second straight playoff appearance. 

We know exactly what Michigan is. Big Blue ranks eighth in points per drive on offense. Their rushing attack wears on their opponents. The passing game can hit explosive plays, but Michigan prefers that their running game leads their offense. Purdue’s defense is decent against the run, ranking 39th in rushing success rate. However, the Boilermakers struggle to stop explosive plays, both in the run and pass. That won't be helpful when facing Michigan's style of offense.

Michigan’s defense is third in points per drive; Purdue’s offense is 70th. Over time, I would expect Purdue’s offense to set up Michigan's offense with short fields and easy scoring opportunities, which will help the Wolverines to win by at least three touchdowns.

I’ll take Michigan to cover.

PICK: Michigan (16.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 16.5 points

No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 23 North Carolina (8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

Let's root for points in the ACC Championship game. 

Clemson’s offense can sometimes sputter and look disjointed, but it does score points. Clemson ranks 28th in points per drive and has scored 30 points or more points in 10 of 12 games.

This Tigers offense is facing a Tar Heel defense that’s atrocious. UNC ranks 111th in points per drive. When Clemson has faced a defense ranked worse than 53rd overall, the Tigers have scored anywhere from 31 to 51 points. Clemson is going to score nonstop Saturday in Charlotte against the Tar Heels.

North Carolina is in this game because of its offense but, more specifically, because its quarterback. Drake Maye has thrown for 3,847 yards with 35 passing touchdowns. He also leads the team in rushing, with 629 yards and six rushing touchdowns. 

Clemson’s defense is outstanding, but when facing the three offenses that ranked in the top 34, Clemson allowed 31, 28 and 45 points. 

North Carolina can score. Tar Heels must score to keep it close. I like the Over in this contest.

PICK: Over 63.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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