College football odds Week 12: Why Michigan State is your best bet this weekend (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Before rivalry week in college football, we get … upset watch.
Ohio State has to be careful against a Michigan State team that nobody is giving a chance. Before the Civil War, Oregon has a road date with Pac-12 South-leading Utah. Oklahoma likely had its College Football Playoff dreams derailed by Baylor last week, and you have to wonder if they bounce back here, knowing that the season finale against Oklahoma State matters far more.
Even though I didn't bet it, keep an eye on that SMU-Cincinnati line. The Bearcats haven't covered in four games, and this is their last test of the season — the only opponent that stands between the Bearcats and the Playoff.
With all that said, let's jump into my best bets of the week, with odds via FOX Bet.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-19 at FOX Bet)
It's been a weird season for the Buckeyes so far. They lead college football in scoring with 46.3 points per game, and they're dominant in almost every offensive category. But, from a gambling perspective, they've been less than impressive.
Ohio State is just 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and 3-3 as a home favorite, including losing by a touchdown as 14.5-point favorites against Oregon. As 18.5-point favorites at home against Penn State, they won by just nine.
On the other side, Michigan State is not a very good team outside of Heisman Trophy candidate Kenneth Walker (leads the country in rushing with 147 yards per game). We've seen the Buckeyes struggle to contain the run (see Minnesota and Oregon), but they haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since those early-season struggles. Improvement, or just a reflection of the team's weak schedule?
Ohio State has won five straight in this series, including the last four by 40, 24, 20 and 45. But, this one should be close. I'd also look at a low-scoring first half and possibly the under. Either way, I'm taking the points.
PICK: Michigan State (+19) to lose by fewer than 19 points (or win outright)
Oregon at Utah (-3 at FOX Bet)
The Ducks are third in the College Football Playoff rankings, but they're nowhere near the third-best team in the country. And that may be on display Saturday evening in Rice-Eccles Stadium, where the Utes are undefeated this season.
The Ducks are the public side here, but I can't back senior quarterback Anthony Brown on the road. Yes, he burned me once when I tried to fade him against the Buckeyes. Still, he's struggled recently, throwing two interceptions against UCLA in a narrow win, passing very poorly against Washington and then using his legs (123 rushing yards) to beat Washington State.
This wager is more of a bet against the Ducks on the road than on Utah. The Utes nearly got caught looking ahead to this game last week but pulled away from a bad Arizona team late. Utah QB Cameron Rising has been fantastic in his first season as a starter throwing 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Give me the Utes!
PICK: Utah (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Iowa State at Oklahoma (-4 at FOX Bet)
The Cyclones have been one of the country's biggest disappointments this season, going from a preseason top-10 team to 6-4 with losses to teams like Texas Tech and West Virginia. It feels like yesterday since Iowa State beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl and there was playoff talk in Ames.
ISU has struggled, and clunky starts have hurt the senior-laden Cyclones. But the line here suggests this game will be close. Oklahoma was favored initially by 8.5, but then the number came crashing down to four.
Iowa State beat Oklahoma at home last year but lost the Big 12 Championship Game by six. And they lost the 2019 regular season matchup by just one after a failed two-point conversion.
The tempo and opponent-adjusted SP+ rankings have Oklahoma ranked 11th in the country and Iowa State 12th. But, the rankings also say Oklahoma's defense is the worst of the Top 25 teams.
I like Iowa State in this spot. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline.
PICK: Iowa State (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.
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