College football odds Week 12: Bet on Oregon against Utah (and more)
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
The final College Football Playoff push is here, with Oregon going to Utah and Ohio State hosting Michigan State. Plus, it's time to see if UCLA can win back the victory bell in Los Angeles.
Let's get into what bets I like in those games, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Oregon at Utah (-3 at FOX Bet)
My playoff-hopeful Oregon Ducks are heading to Utah to face the resurgent Utah Utes. The Utes started slow, made a QB change, and have now scored at least 34 points over their last six games.
This game is a matchup of teams that believe in owning the line of scrimmage, playing solid defense and limiting mistakes by their playmakers. Oregon and Utah are tied in offensive points per drive, ranking 13th, and defensive points per drive, 52nd. Oregon scores 35 points a game, while Utah scores 35.4. Oregon allows 22 points per game, whereas Utah gives up 23. I can continue this exercise, but I hope you all get the picture. These are two very equal teams, and both will try to win this game in their own ways.
Utah started the season with Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer under center. But after a slow start, they inserted captain Cameron Rising into the lineup. The Utah offense attempted to spread it out and let Brewer work which did not fit their personnel. But, the team made that move to accommodate Brewer's skill set as a passer, but it just didn't pan out. Which leads us to Rising.
Ever since returning from their week five bye, this Utah offense has been the image that offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has always wanted. The coaching staff said the offensive line was their deepest in years entering the season, yet that unit played very poorly to start. They got no push upfront and were a mess handling protections in a spread-out offense. Utah's passing game suffered in the spread offense because they don't have dynamic wide receiving options. But, since the unit made the switch back to a traditional pro-style attack with Rising at QB, the offensive line has improved, and the passing game has gotten back to what they want. Play-action pass and heavy usage of their tight end packages.
Utah has an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brant Kuithe, who is tied with receiver Britain Covey with 36 catches on the season. They employ excellent blocking tight ends, including Dalton Kincaid and Cole Fotheringham — who should put on 50 pounds and be an All-Pac 12 left tackle. These changes and getting back to the team's core principles have driven this offense into high gear.
The Utes also have a three-headed monster at running back featuring Tavion Thomas (122 rushes for 742 yards), Micah Bernard and TJ Pledger. All three average above 5.9 yards per carry, and Utah ranks 16th in rushing success rate and ninth in explosive rushing.
As mentioned above, their passing attack is very heavy on targeting the tight end without high-end receiving options. Utah is successful when passing, but they lack an explosive element to their passing game for that reason. Their offensive line is good at avoiding pressure on the quarterback because they're rarely in third and long situations. The team ranks 18th in the country at gaining a first down before third down. So Utah's game plan on offense will be running the football and targeting tight ends. It's not complicated.
Oregon will counter that game plan very simply. Oregon's rushing defense is only allowing 123 yards on the ground per game. The Ducks will use their big bodies in the front seven to dent Utah's offensive line. They have massive bodies upfront that can make life difficult for opposing offensive lines. Oregon's middle linebacker Noah Sewell leads the team in stuffs and is second in tackles for losses. Look for him to have a big game.
Anytime Oregon has been physically challenged this season, they have always risen to the task. One area where Oregon's defense can be had is in the passing game, but that isn't the strength of what Utah does well.
Oregon allows passing yard chunks but is excellent at limiting explosive plays. They rank eighth in the country at making offenses work for their yards. The Ducks also rank 24th in coverage grade against tight ends, which will be a significant factor in this game.
Oregon's defense has dealt with injuries, but as players have gotten back healthy or moved around to different positions, they've settled in. Of course, it's helpful to have the best player in college football rushing the passer. Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, and his pressure rate is near the top of the country. He gets home quickly, often under 2.5 seconds, at a rate of 19%. He's a freak show, and Utah will need to account for him all game long.
If the Utes want to win, they'll need to run the football, limit Thibodeaux's production and find their tight ends. Oregon's path to winning this game is even more straightforward. The Ducks will need their defense to play like we know they can. Honestly, even an average performance in this game would be good. But what Oregon needs more than anything is to work around quarterback Anthony Brown's bad stretches.
Oregon is proficient at running the football, even after losing running back CJ Verdell, their best offensive weapon. Backup Travis Dye has 1200 all-purpose yards and averages 6 yards per carry. An emerging star is his backup Byron Cardwell, who has 41 carries for 320 yards on the season, good for almost 8 yards a carry. For good measure, the signal-caller Brown has also added 600 yards of his own on the ground.
The Ducks' run game can get loose because of their offensive line. Travis Dye gets nearly 3 yards before contact, and Cardwell is at 4.4 yards!! That is impressive, considering Oregon has played 20 plus offensive line combinations.
Oregon ranks second in rushing success rate. They are also first in stuff rate, meaning they are the best in the country at converting on third/ fourth and short. Their goal is to lean on the defense the entire game and use vertical movement off the ball with enough wrinkles of Brown keeping the ball or using the RPO to keep defenses off balance.
For years Utah's run defense was elite but not this season. They are "only" 52nd in success rate and 86th in explosive rush defense. So, Oregon will do what they always do. Which is, pound the rock and force Utah to stop them. Ultimately, Oregon's offense on the road will come down to their quarterback, who is a roller coaster in the passing game.
Oregon's passing game numbers are statistically ok, but the team struggles to get explosive plays down the field because of their quarterback. Oregon has the wide receivers that can make plays, but Brown rarely attempts downfield passes. Oregon ranks 90th in the country in pass attempts over 20 plus yards. Brown can look fantastic for quarters at a time and then, for 15 minutes, look like a freshman.
Brown is not at his best on third downs, which is why Oregon, just like Utah, needs to move the ball on early downs to keep him out of those situations. However, Utah's pass rush ranks 78th in pressure rate, so Brown should have time to throw if Oregon can play to their standard on the offensive line.
When Brown is on though, the Oregon offense is difficult to stop. Utah ranks just 118th in air yards per attempt on defense, so the opportunity will be there for the Oregon QB. But, again, you just never know if this is the drive that Brown will play well on or not.
One thing is certain about Brown though, he never panics. He will keep trying to make plays, and it shows, as he has led Oregon back from deficits this season. Utah will hope they can force Oregon into getting the bad Anthony Brown in this matchup.
When two teams are incredibly similar in approach and success, we need to explore other factors, like coaching and special teams. Utah under Kyle Whittingham was the model for special teams' success. They have multiple kickers and punters in the NFL, and that was a reliable unit for them. However, this season, Utah's special teams unit is ranked 123rd. They've had multiple punts blocked and do not return kicks all that well. On the flip side, the Ducks rank fifth in special teams and are outstanding in their return game. I'd bet Oregon returns a kickoff for a touchdown on Saturday.
When it comes to the coaching staff, both are outstanding, but I think Oregon has the wild card in offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. He is widely regarded as one of the best play designers in college football, and he always seems to have the right play called up at the right time. That's important in a road game where you need to have poise in big moments.
Moorhead will be tested to find ways to slow down Utah's linebacker Devin Lloyd, who is a game-wrecker. Lloyd does everything well. He's got 17 tackles for a loss and 15 stuffs. He's also second on the team in sacks and pressures, even though he's rarely lined up in a pass rush position before the snap. I'll be curious to see if Utah uses Lloyd to mirror the movements of Brown to avoid the QB from being an issue in the run game.
Lastly, Oregon plays exceptionally well in big games under Mario Cristobal, especially away from Autzen Stadium. In his four seasons at Oregon, he's won two of three bowl games, including a Rose Bowl. In that span, Oregon has beaten Washington three times and USC twice. He's won both Pac-12 Championship Games. And, don't forget, Oregon went to Ohio State earlier this season and won. Oregon played great for 58 minutes against Auburn in 2019 before losing. Out of all those big games, only a single win, Washington in 2018, was at home.
There's something about this team in big moments on the road instead of a home game against a 1-8 Arizona team. You will get Oregon's best punch at Utah. They will not be intimidated by Utah's conference success at home — they haven't lost at home since early in 2018.
I'm taking my Ducks +3 in a big game. It does not fail.
PICK: Oregon (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
UCLA (-3 at FOX Bet) at USC
Wager against USC, and you will win money. It's simple.
USC is a broken program that does nothing well this season. The Trojans' best player in Drake London is out for the year, and they are completely lifeless, only beating teams at a severe talent disadvantage. And even then, it's ugly.
Since Clay Helton got fired after Week 2, USC had beaten Washington State (the first game after the firing) and Colorado and Arizona, the two worst teams in the Pac-12 South. They covered against Colorado and did not against Arizona. Otherwise, they've lost by 18 to Oregon State, 16 to Utah and 15 to both Notre Dame and Arizona State.
USC's offense, either led by Kedon Slovis or freshman Jaxson Dart is lost without London at wide receiver, who got injured late against Arizona. Even though London's missed USC's last five quarters, he's got 55 more targets than the next receiver. The Trojans' offense ranks 117th in explosive plays, and 79th in the country at turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Their offense can't move anyone off the ball, and while UCLA's defense isn't special, the Trojans are even worse.
The best unit in this game is UCLA's rushing attack which is ranked 10th in rushing success. USC's defense ranks 91st at stopping the run. If USC happens to stop UCLA's run game, the Bruins don't have to worry about the USC pass rush as their pressure rate is 108th in the country.
UCLA is going to put up 40 on USC in the Coliseum. This entire season teams have exercised demons against USC. Utah won in the Coliseum for the first time in 100 years and Oregon State for the first time since 1960. Look for more of the same, as UCLA will embarrass USC this weekend.
PICK: UCLA (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
Michigan State at Ohio State (-19 at FOX Bet)
This matchup presents a challenging game to handicap. I think the number is larger than it should be, but Ohio State is rolling, while Michigan State has been so-so after beating Michigan, losing to Purdue and winning by enough against Maryland.
Ohio State's offense ranks first in efficiency and points per drive. They can move the ball at will, and Michigan State will have issues defending them. Michigan State's defense comes in ranked in the mid-30s in points per drive, and it does a decent job of shutting down explosive plays. However, the Spartans don't have a dynamic pass rush, and unless C.J. Stroud just has an awful game, it's hard to imagine Michigan State holding Ohio State under 45 points.
Michigan State's offense has some explosive elements, with Heisman candidate running back Kenneth Walker, who has nearly 1500 yards rushing on the ground this season.
But, for how good Walker's numbers are, you'd expect better rushing efficiency, and that's not there with the Spartans. Ohio State's rushing defensive number is better than Michigan State's offensive number. Ohio State leads the Big Ten in sacks and ranks 25th in pressure rate. Michigan State's offensive line ranks 66th in allowing pressure. So, even if Ohio State is looking ahead, I fail to see how Michigan State keeps this game close.
Give me the Buckeyes!
PICK: Ohio State (-19 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 19 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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