College football odds Week 10: Hendon Hooker new favorite to win Heisman

When Heisman Trophy odds first hit betting boards at sportsbooks across the country, the talk was primarily on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud.

Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker was an afterthought long shot, at odds of +6600 (66-1) and beyond, depending on where you bet.

Fast-forward two months into the college football season, though, and it's a different story with odds to win the Heisman Trophy, as Hooker is now the favorite to win the award.

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New Leader

Yes, Stroud is still very much in the mix, at a short price of +175 at BetMGM. But Young, who opened as the +250 favorite, has since stretched out to +3300, the eighth choice. That's due in no small part to Hooker and the Vols: Tennessee beat visiting Alabama 52-49 in overtime in Week 7.

Now, in the wake of the Vols' 44-6 Week 9 thumping of Kentucky, Hooker is the favorite in the Heisman odds market. BetMGM has him at +100, an even-money bet, meaning a $100 wager would win $100 if Hooker lands the annual award.

One big note: Hooker opened at +6600.

"There's been a ton of action on Hooker all over the country, but it's hottest in SEC country, between our [mobile] apps in Tennessee and Mississippi," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said. "The biggest payout I see is a bet on Hooker at 12-1 to win about $6,000. Someone did get $100 on him at 50-1 to win $5,000. But there are not many huge tickets out there."

Hooker is No. 1 in ticket count at BetMGM, No. 3 in money wagered on, and he's the book's second-largest liability in the market. The only worse outcome is Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels – who's No. 1 in money wagered on – but he's no longer on the odds board after missing the past few weeks with a shoulder injury.

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Joel Klatt recapped the No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 19 Kentucky.

Odds Progression

As noted above, Hooker opened +6600 in BetMGM's Heisman futures odds, which first went up after last season's College Football Playoff championship game. BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said the book moved Hooker to +5000 shortly thereafter and didn't touch his odds again until the season was underway.

"The big jump came after the Florida game when he moved from 40-1 to 16-1," Magee said. "Then after the 'Bama game, it was off to the races with tickets coming in on Hooker."

Following the win over Alabama, Hooker shot to the +600 second choice – behind Stroud's -110 price – and now sits in the favorite's seat at even money.

FOX Bet opened Hooker as an even longer shot, at +8000, and like BetMGM, quickly adjusted to +5000. Just before the Vols beat Alabama, Hooker was all the way into +1100, and he moved to +550 after that big home victory. FOX Bet now has Hooker at +110 and Stroud at +200.

But this week could make or break Hooker's Heisman hopes: No. 2 Tennessee travels to No. 1 Georgia in a game certain to reshape College Football Playoff odds, as well.

"It's difficult to give the edge to either QB based on their stats or team success," said Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet trading operations senior manager. "If Hooker can take down No. 1 Georgia this weekend as a 9-point underdog, I expect he'll have his Heisman moment, and further secure his spot as the favorite. If Hooker plays well, but Tennessee loses, the Hooker-Stroud Heisman battle may look closer to a coin toss."

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A Smaller Win, But Not a Loser

For both FOX Bet and BetMGM, Hooker is a worse outcome than Stroud in what's pretty much a two-man race in the Heisman Trophy odds market. However, neither book actually loses to either outcome – it's just a matter of winning less.

"We have managed the market well, and as things stand, both Hooker and Stroud would be a positive result for our book," Brossman said.

Magee noted that Hooker is a small winner for BetMGM.

"We were pretty aggressive in moving his prices, as we've been tracking Tennessee every Saturday," Magee said. "We stayed pretty ahead of everyone, so, fortunately, we still have a [profitable] book for Hooker. Stroud would be a much better result.

"If Hooker walks into Athens and takes down Georgia while playing well, you'll definitely see a big swing in his odds going forward."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.