College football odds: The three teams that can actually win the title
In the race to win the College Football Playoff (CFP) national championship trophy, three teams' odds are head and shoulders above the competition — Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. But with one week left in the regular season, can bettors be confident that the next team to win it all will come from this bunch?
Let's look at the top-10 current CFP national championship odds heading into rivalry weekend.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS (via FOX Bet)*
Georgia -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Ohio State +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Alabama +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Cincinnati +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Michigan +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Oklahoma +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Notre Dame +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Oklahoma State +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Ole Miss +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010.00 total)
Baylor +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010.00 total)
*Odds as of 11/22 at 11 p.m. ET
Betting Georgia, Ohio State or Alabama wins you anywhere from about $18 to $50 on a $10 wager. After those three favorites, we see teams' odds lengthen drastically, and the bucks that bettors could pocket increase exponentially if a longshot wins. From a betting perspective, that also means the champion will most likely come from those three powerhouses.
We've seen this story before in the CFP. In the seven years since its inception, the Crimson Tide have five championship game appearances with three wins. The Buckeyes have two appearances and one win. The Bulldogs have had one appearance but lost the big game to Bama. And this doesn't even account for these teams' combined 11 semifinal appearances.
A tale as old as time. But why is this story playing out the same way again this season?
Coach Kirby Smart, his Dawgs and their defense have been the story this season, as they are the clear favorites to win it all. Their No. 1-ranked D allows FBS opponents an average of just 7.6 yards per game and has been lauded all year as being historically good. A huge part of that dominant defense is 6-foot-6, 360-pound defensive lineman Jordan Davis, who has captured the hearts of Bulldog faithful and the attention of bookmakers. FOX Bet currently has him listed with the seventh-best Heisman odds at +8000.
The Silver Britches aren't too shabby on the other side of the ball. Their scoring offense averages 40.3 points per game and ranks No. 7 in the country with 56 touchdowns. The Dawgs face in-state rival Georgia Tech on Saturday and are 35-point favorites. A win against the Yellow Jackets will give UGA a 12-0 record, making them undefeated in the regular season for the first time since 1982.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day and his Buckeyes have the second-best odds to hoist the trophy, with a 10-1 record that's first in the Big Ten East. Season after season, the Buckeyes' high-octane offense keeps them atop their conference and the college football rankings. This year is no different. OSU's offense ranks No. 1 in the country averaging a whopping 559.8 yards per game and scoring an average of 47.2 points.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been an integral part of Day's offense as he's passed for 3,468 yards and 36 touchdowns this year. Stroud's play has been so impressive that he is leading the Heisman odds at -200 on FOX Bet.
Ohio State faces one of its toughest challenges Saturday against Michigan. As early 8.5-point favorites, a win against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor will cement OSU's place in the Big Ten title game and keep its CFP playoff hopes alive.
Finally, there's the beast that is Bama. Coached by Nick Saban — also known as college football's Bill Belichick — the Crimson Tide is on a path to yet another title. College football enthusiasts, oddsmakers and even casual fans know that when it comes to this sport, Tuscaloosa is Title Town USA.
With the third-best odds at FOX Bet, Alabama's one loss to Texas A&M in Week 6 was just a minor bump in the road. Since then, they've been on a five-game winning streak and have college football's No. 2 scoring offense. And what you get in Bama is a balanced attack as their total defense ranks No. 8 in the nation.
With quarterback Bryce Young at the helm, his 3,584 passing yards and 38 touchdowns have kept the Tide and his Heisman hopes near the top. FOX Bet has his odds at +150 to take home the hardware in New York in December. And a Heisman isn't the only trophy on Young's mind.
Alabama will face in-conference rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, and the winner will be awarded the James E. Foy, V-ODK Sportsmanship Trophy. Alabama has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game to battle Georgia, but with a loss already, Saturday is a must-win for the Tide to stay alive in the CFP.
In addition to sharing space on top of the odds, these three favorites have intertwining storylines. Georgia's Smart was defensive coordinator under Saban for four national championships (three from the Bowl Championship Series era, one from CFP). Day was head coach at OSU when Justin Fields — a quarterback who transferred from UGA — led the Buckeyes to a championship appearance in January 2021 which they lost 52-24 to Alabama. And Saban — well, Saban is coaching royalty and somehow, even in their imperfect seasons, all roads still go through Tuscaloosa.
The combination of their strengths of schedule, top-ranked recruiting classes and preseason rankings give UGA, OSU and Alabama head starts at the beginning of each season. They say that the rich get richer, and in college football, the ones who start off at the top — especially when they handle their business on the field — stay on top.
Regardless of how dominant these powerhouses have been this season, a fourth team will round out the group that gets in. But who will be that lucky team?
We asked FOX Bet's head college football trader AJ Devine for his insight.
"As for the fourth spot, I think it’s pretty wide open," Devine said. "Cincinnati probably has the upper hand at the moment, but as we’ve seen from the Committee, they’ll look for any reason not to include them.
"If Michigan were to beat Ohio State and then go on to win the Big Ten Championship, Michigan’s resume would be too strong to overlook."
As for the Oregon team that was No. 3 before losing to No. 23 Utah, he noted that "Oregon’s got a tough road ahead and has almost no chance of making it in."
And speaking of Utah, if chaos ensues, Devine considers the Utes to be a team that could sneak into playoff position.
"If we’re talking chaos scenarios, I don’t think it would be terrible to take a flyer on Utah at 300-1," the oddsmaker continued. "They’ve got three close losses to pretty good teams, and if they win out by beating either Oregon again or taking revenge on Oregon State in the Pac-12 Championship, they could have a decent resume for the committee to consider."
It's easy to understand why most bettors will bet the Bulldogs, Buckeyes or the Tide to win the CFP National Title. But, are you betting on a team that's been there and done that, or are you looking to cash in on a darkhorse? This upcoming weekend will be fun to watch.
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