College football odds: Ohio State vs. Michigan betting trends to know

One of the oldest rivalries in college football resumes on Saturday when Ohio State and Michigan square off for the 117th time ever in the Big House at Ann Arbor (12 p.m. ET, FOX).

A sold-out stadium, No. 2 and No. 6 fighting for a College Football Playoff spot, Big Ten title implications, and just plain bragging rights — this matchup has all the makings of a classic heading into Saturday.

But what about from an odds perspective? To help you get ready to place your bets on "The Game," we wanted to offer up all of the betting trends you need to know.

Let’s start off by taking a dive into how each team has performed this year thus far.

For more on how to bet Ohio State versus Michigan, check out three reasons to bet on the Buckeyes and three reasons to bet on the Wolverines.

MICHIGAN

Jim Harbaugh’s squad has gone 9-2 against the spread this season and is defeating teams by an average of 20.6 points per game through 11 weeks. However, since taking over as head coach in 2015, Harbaugh has never beaten Ohio State and has lost by double-digits in four of the five matchups.

Still, Michigan has been tabbed as favorites in 10 games this season, with the lone exception prior to Saturday coming at Wisconsin, where Michigan covered and won outright by double-digits. Much of its resurgence after a 2-4 season in 2020 can be attributed to Cade McNamara’s play at quarterback. The junior has tossed 14 touchdown passes with just two interceptions along with leading Michigan to the second-highest scoring offense of any Big Ten team.

The over has hit in five of 11 games this season under his command.

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OHIO STATE

Ryan Day’s bunch, which has been the favorites in every game so far this season, is 6-4-1 ATS but 6-2 in their past eight games. They've also faced three top 15 opponents in Penn State, Oregon and Michigan State.

The Buckeyes handed the Spartans a 56-7 loss last week, which is notable considering Mel Tucker’s squad handed Michigan its only defeat of the season thus far. Various sportsbooks had Ohio State as a 4.5 to 6 point favorite before their trashing of Michigan State, and now the line sits at eight points.

Much of that shift was related to CJ Stroud’s stellar play versus the Spartans, as he finished the game 32-for-35 for 432 pass yards and threw six touchdowns in the first half alone of the blowout victory. The performance has shifted him to the front runner for the Heisman, edging out Alabama’s Bryce Young.

With Stroud under center, the Buckeyes have hit the over six times this season.

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HISTORICAL LOOK

While Michigan does own the all-time edge 58-52-6, it has dropped 15 of the past 16 matchups against the Buckeyes, having lost eight straight since the Wolverines' last win in 2011.

Odds-wise, Michigan is 19-23 against the spread versus Ohio State since 1978 and 2-3 ATS since 2015 (meaning, of course, that the Buckeyes are 23-19 ATS over that same span). When an underdog versus Ohio State, the Wolverines are 11-10 ATS and 5-4 ATS as a home underdog since 1978.

Should the line close at 8 or perhaps even higher, it would be the third consecutive time Michigan has been a home underdog of 8+ points against Ohio State, which has never happened since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. In fact, Michigan will now have been a home underdog versus the Buckeyes in five consecutive instances, which has also never happened in that same time frame.

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In regards to the total, the matchup has seen various high-scoring games. Since 2000, the over has hit an astounding 15 of 20 times, including the past seven matchups between the two (since 2013). Ohio State currently leads all of FBS in total offensive yards per game (559.5), yards per play (7.98), and points per game (47.2). The Wolverines aren’t far off in the latter two categories, ranking 15th in FBS in scoring (36.9) and 25th in yards per game (447.9).

The matchup has seen over 50 total points scored in seven consecutive meetings, with four of those games surpassing over 70 points recorded- including the last two. In what will be the 24th instance all-time in which both teams enter "The Game" ranked in the top 10, it could be fireworks for 60 minutes.

Add it all up, and a slight lean toward Ohio State to cover and the game to go over the scoring total might make the most sense for your betting dollar.

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