College football odds: Is betting on Jim Harbaugh in big games profitable?

A shot at a College Football Playoff (CFP) championship appearance is at stake as No. 3 Georgia prepares to face No. 2 Michigan in the Orange Bowl. And while fans of both teams hope that it's their squad that advances to the championship, bettors might consider both coaches' histories before wagering on this New Year's Eve matchup.

Which head coach — Georgia's Kirby Smart or Michigan's Jim Harbaugh — escapes with the win? And can either coach prove that they can meet the moment of the big game?

The 12-1 Bulldogs are 7-point favorites in this matchup between the two football powerhouses. And while the Silver Britches might be favored to win, they enter this primetime contest with a chip on their shoulders after being absolutely beat down by Alabama 41-24 in the SEC championship game. 

Georgia is anchored by a historic, No. 1-ranked defense that allowed opponents an average of just 9.8 points per game this season. But the Bulldogs showing in the conference title matchup turned out to be lackluster. From a gambling perspective, it was even more disappointing, considering the Dawgs were 6-point favorites going into that game against the Crimson Tide.

But based on Kirby Smart's record in big games — matchups against top-five teams, conference championships and title games — should bettors have expected that thumping? And more importantly, what should bettors expect from Smart in his first Orange Bowl appearance as a head coach?

Per FOX Sports research, Smart — who won three national championships as Bama's defensive coordinator — is 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and 3-5 straight up (SU) versus top-five teams during the regular season. One of those wins came against Clemson in the Dawgs' 10-3 season opener win over the Tigers. When it comes to conference championships, though, Kirby is 2-2 ATS and 1-3 SU.

Taking it a step further, when it comes to CFP semifinal games, the UGA defensive back-turned-head coach is perfect. He's 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU in this category. Yes, it's a small sample size, but still worth noting.

An Orange Bowl win would put the Dawgs back in the CFP championship game and give them a chance to win their first national title since 1980. 

On the other side is Michigan quarterback-turned-head coach Harbaugh and his 7-point underdog Wolverines.

Like Smart's squad, his team finished with a 12-1 record, but Harbaugh managed a win that Smart could not. Michigan, whose third-ranked defense allowed its opponents an average of 16.1 points per game, took home their conference title by defeating Ohio State and taking the Big Ten crown. 

But like his contemporary from the SEC, Harbaugh has also been criticized for not capitalizing on opportunities to clinch career-defining wins. And that critique certainly has some merit because when it comes to history, Harbaugh has not been kind to gamblers at this stage.

FOX Sports research finds that Harbaugh, who has never coached a CFP championship or semifinal, is 3-4 ATS and 2-5 SU against top-five teams during his career. And what about in conference championship games? Well, defeating the Buckeyes this year got Harbaugh over that hump, so he's 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU in that category.

The former San Francisco head coach hopes that he can do at Michigan this year what he did for the Niners in 2012 — coach his team all the way to the big game.

Even though the public narrative is that both Smart and Harbaugh fail to finish the drill when it matters most, do oddsmakers consider coaches' past performances in big games when setting lines? 

For that, we turn to FOX Bet content integration specialist, Jacob Blangsted-Barnor.

"I would say of the three categories — games against top-five opponents, conference championships and title games — games against top-ranked opponents is the most useful," the oddsmaker said. "The other two will be a small sample size for these two coaches.

"And I really think that when teams play their one or two top-ranked matchups in the regular season, there really is as much pressure and build-up as if it's a post-season game."

Only one of these coaches will get to add new hardware to his alma mater's trophy case with an Orange Bowl win. So are you wagering Smart to lead his Dawgs to victory or the underdog in Harbaugh to win his very first CFP semifinal matchup?

Get in on the betting action right now at FOX Bet!

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