College football odds: Betting trends for New Year's Six bowl games

The 2021 bowl season has officially commenced, and the College Football Playoff is right around the corner. 

To help get you set to make your wagers on this eighth edition of the College Football Playoff, we wanted to take a historical look at gambling trends and patterns in these games alongside some of college football’s most prominent postseason finales. 

As you would imagine, betting results have been rather evenly split over the years in college football's biggest bowl games — almost freakishly so, in fact.

- Favorites are 167-165-5 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games when both teams are ranked since 1978.

- Since 2000, the over/under results in ranked versus ranked bowl matchups have been nearly identical, with the under hitting 88 times and the over hitting 84 times.

- Since 2010, underdogs are 45-46-1 against the spread in Bowl games in matchups where both teams are ranked

Yet there is one trend that sticks out: Favorites are 211-124-2 straight up in ranked versus ranked bowl matchups since 1978.

As for this year's games? FOX research analyzed both semifinal matchups as well as the other four New Year’s Six bowls for 2021. Here's what you need to know.

CFP

COTTON BOWL: (1) ALABAMA (-13.5) vs. (4) CINCINNATI 

The Bearcats are currently 13.5-point underdogs against Alabama according to FOX Bet. 

That would be the second-highest spread in any CFP game, with the Tide closing as 18.5-point favorites against Notre Dame in last season’s No. 1 versus No. 4 matchup. 

The Tide failed to cover in that game having won by 17, but covered as 13-point favorites in another No. 1 vs No. 4 game against Washington in 2016. Overall, Nick Saban’s Alabama teams are 3-3 ATS in CFP semifinal games and 5-1 straight up, with the lone loss coming in the 2014 season against Ohio State. 

It’s also worth noting the Crimson Tide has been favored in all six semifinal matchups, and that the No. 1 seed has won it all the last two seasons (2021- Alabama, 2020- LSU). Surprisingly the under has hit in five of those six games despite Alabama’s dominance. Alabama is just 11-12 ATS in bowl games since 2000, but 16-7 SU (including CFP matchups).

Cincinnati has played in three New Year’s Six bowls all-time, going 1-2 ATS and 0-3 SU. 

The Bearcats covered last season as 9-point favorites in a 24-21 loss to Georgia. They are 3-1 ATS against Alabama since 1978, despite losing all four contests.

ORANGE BOWL: (2) MICHIGAN vs. (3) GEORGIA (-8)

The Bulldogs entered the SEC championship as 6.5-point favorites and lost to Alabama by 17, despite a dominant regular season. Michigan, on the other hand, dominated the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes covered a 12.5-point spread against Iowa, with a dominant 42-3 victory.

Despite that victor, the Wolverines are 8-point underdogs against Georgia in what will be their first CFP appearance ever.

On the flip side, Kirby Smart’s bunch will be making their second appearance in the Big Dance, having won and covered against Oklahoma during the 2017 season. The Bulldogs then went on to cover as 3.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss in the National Championship Game, in what most now remember as Tua Tagovailoa's coming-out party.

Michigan and Georgia have only met twice all-time, with the last matchup coming in 1965. 

The Wolverines have lost their last two New Year’s Six bowls despite being favored in both (2018 Peach Bowl, 2016 Orange Bowl). Their last such win came in the 2011 season against Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl where they covered as 2.5-point favorites in a 23-20 game. Since 2000, they are just 6-11 ATS in bowl games and 5-12 SU.

It's been a different story for the Bulldogs, as they've gone 14-8 ATS and 15-7 SU in bowl games during that same span (including CFP games). 

Michigan has also hit the over in 13 of 17 bowl games since 2000, while Georgia has hit the under in 12 of 22 games in that same span. Expect Michigan defensive end, Aidan Hutchinson, to make an impact, having recently been named as a Heisman finalist after not even being on the board to start the season.

REST OF NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS

PEACH BOWL: (11) MICHIGAN STATE (-2.5) vs. (13) PITTSBURGH

Michigan State is 5-3 SU in New Year’s Six bowls, having made three straight appearances from 2013-15.  The Spartans were actually underdogs in all three games, going 2-1 ATS as well as 2-1 SU. 

Pittsburgh is in a similar position, going 4-8 SU in such games, with only one appearance since 2000, losing and failing to cover versus Utah in the Fiesta Bowl in 2005.

Despite the under hitting in 13 of the last 21 Peach Bowls, this game features two of the most prolific offensive players in the country. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett, another finalist for the Heisman Trophy, has tossed 42 touchdown passes with 4,319 pass yards to go with it. The Spartans have their own playmaker who comes out of the backfield in Kenneth Walker III, who is second in the FBS in rushing yards with 1,646. 

The Panthers rank third nationally in scoring at 43.0 PPG, while Michigan State is putting 31.9 per contest. With the over currently hovering around 63, this seems like a smart bet.

ROSE BOWL: (7) OHIO STATE (-6.5) vs. (10) UTAH

Ohio State is 20-14 SU all-time in New Year’s Six bowls but has dominated in recent memory, going 10-4 both ATS and SU since 2000. The Utes have only appeared twice in such games, making the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and 2009 Sugar Bowl. Kyle Whittingham was at the helm for both outings, covering and winning against Pittsburgh and Alabama, respectively. 

FIESTA BOWL: (5) NOTRE DAME (-2) vs. (9) OKLAHOMA STATE

This year’s Fiesta Bowl features Notre Dame taking on Oklahoma State in what will be Marcus Freeman’s first game as the head coach of the Fighting Irish. ND hasn't fared well in New Year’s Six games, going 11-13 SU all-time and 0-6 since 2000. 

In those six matchups, the Fighting Irish went 1-5 ATS and hit the under five times.

Mike Gundy’s squad is coming off an upset loss versus Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game and will look for just its second win in a New Year’s Six bowl game in the last 20 years. The Cowboys are 4-4 SU all-time in such games and 1-4 ATS since 2000. 

SUGAR BOWL: (8) OLE MISS vs. (6) BAYLOR (PICK 'EM)

Two of the hottest coaches in college football will face off in the Sugar Bowl, as Lane Kiffin will look to earn Ole Miss its fifth New Year’s Six bowl win since 2000. The Rebels are 11-6 SU in those games all-time and have only dropped one contest over the last 20 years (lost to TCU in 2014). 

Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS since 2000 in New Year's Six games (4-1 SU). 

Dave Aranda’s Bears will be looking for the program’s first New Year’s Six bowl victory since 1979. It would be Baylor’s third such win ever as they are 2-6 all-time in those contests.

Baylor is 0-3 ATS and 0-3 SU in New Year's Six bowls since 2000.