College football odds: Why it's Alabama and Georgia vs. everyone else

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Through five weeks of the college football season, it’s crystal clear that the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs are the two best teams in the country – then there’s everybody else.

But how large is the gap between the Twin Towers and the rest?

I placed a phone call to legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, who has been making his own power ratings for four decades. White has a tangible number on every single college football team and he uses these ratings to help create point spreads for sportsbooks.

"Alabama and Georgia are clearly 1-2, then there’s a noticeable drop down to everybody else," White told me. "Alabama is the highest-rated team at 134.5, and I’m up to 130.5 on Georgia. The Bulldogs were vastly underrated before the season at 119.5. I’ve already raised their rating 11 points.

"I still might be a little low on Georgia, but the constant injuries to quarterback JT Daniels have me a little hesitant."

White speaks quickly, but nowhere near as quick as the numbers seemingly ping around in his head. This business is about speed and accuracy and it’s imperative that all the mathematics line up. After all, there are high six and seven-figures on the line in some of these major college football games.  

After White recalibrates his weekly power ratings, he takes the two numbers and subtracts the lowest from the highest to get his neutral-field point spread.

"I would make Alabama -4 vs. Georgia on a neutral," White said.

"The betting line would probably open Bama -3, though. There’s so much betting love for Georgia in the market. There are a lot of people that think this game should be closer to a pick ‘em. So you can’t open Bama -4 at this very moment, because bettors would be waiting to whack +4.

"But things change so fast in this industry. If Alabama blows out Texas A&M on Saturday and Georgia struggles and ekes by Auburn, I might adjust Alabama to a seven-point favorite over Georgia, that fast."

What if Alabama loses and Georgia rolls?

"Then Georgia is the new top dog, and they’re favored," White said.

Highest-Rated 2021 College Football Teams (by Kenny White’s power ratings)
Alabama: 134.5
Georgia: 130.5
Ohio State: 125
Oklahoma: 125
Clemson: 123
Cincinnati: 122.5
Michigan: 120
Ole Miss: 120
Texas: 119.5
Florida: 118.5
Penn State: 118.5
Iowa: 118

According to White’s ratings, Alabama (134.5) would essentially be a 9.5-point favorite vs. Ohio State (125) and Oklahoma (125). The Tide would be laying 11.5 points to Clemson, 12 to Cincinnati, 14.5 to Michigan, 15 to Texas, 16 to both Florida and Penn State and 16.5 to Iowa.

Georgia (130.5 power rating) is -5.5 against Ohio State (125), -8 versus Cincy (122.5) and so on.

One team that has just plummeted in White’s ratings is Clemson. Like most wise guys, he was high on quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, the speed and skill of the Tiger playmakers and a defense that’s loaded with NFL talent. But through the first few weeks of the regular season, reality has outweighed perception:

"Clemson was a 134 and they’re a 123 now. I’m down 11 points on them."

White’s lowest-rated team is the Butler Bulldogs (FCS) at 52.5, which is an 82-point free fall from Alabama at 134.5. His lowest-rated FBS squad is UMass at a 76 rating (58.5 net). White said he would probably kick the spread up a smidge and open Alabama -61 with a total of 67 against the Minutemen.

(Brain explodes.)

"If they really wanted to, they could win by 80," he cracked. "They could name the score." 

Before White and I said our goodbyes, I felt obligated to ask if there was a longshot that was worth a wager to win the College Football Playoff. Obviously, we know Alabama or Georgia are likely to win the whole thing, but is there value anywhere else on the betting board?

Forever the numbers guy, White responded with a team that checks a couple important boxes in his mathematical mind. He circled a team that he’s upgraded every single week – one that likely finishes the season undefeated and crashes the playoff party as a team outside the Power 5.

"Cincinnati is the most interesting because of the price (+2500 at FOX Bet)," White analyzed. "They have a talented enough team to get to the College Football Playoff. I think they’ll run the table after beating Notre Dame. Cincinnati would probably be a 10-point underdog in the semifinal and a 6-point ‘dog or so if they make the national championship." 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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