College football odds: 3 bowl bets you need to make today

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After the appetizers of the early bowl games, we get to the meat of the bowl schedule, as the New Year's Six and playoff games are finally here! 

Let's jump into my three favorite wagers of the week, with odds via FOX Bet.

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (7 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN)

Pittsburgh's Heisman finalist quarterback Kenny Pickett opted out of the Peach Bowl, but that isn't deterring me from picking the Panthers in this game.

Pittsburgh has an explosive offense that Michigan State will have trouble defending even with a backup quarterback. The Spartans' pass defense is ranked 111th in the country, and they also rank 112th in third-down success rate and 75th in pressure rate. So even with a backup starting for the Panthers, their offense will be fine in this spot. 

This game also isn't a regular-season game where the backup only has a week to prepare. Quarterback Nick Patti has had a month to get ready for this game, which leads me to believe the Panthers will score enough.

Michigan's State's offense revolves around running back Kenneth Walker and his 1,636 rushing yards. Walker has opted out of this game, so the Spartans will need to find another way to move the ball. The concern for me is MSU's offensive line. Walker made the offensive line better, and without him, I do not believe the team's offense will function well against a feisty Panthers defense that ranks 17th in points per drive and ninth in third-down success rate.

Look for the Panthers to win this game outright.

PICK: Pittsburgh (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (1 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

This game will be low-scoring as both teams struggle more on offense than defense. And usually, when I expect a low-scoring game, I like to take the underdog.

Oklahoma State won their Big 12 title game despite their quarterback throwing four interceptions. The Cowboys win behind a defense that ranks third in points per drive and fifth in explosive play rate. 

Oklahoma State is going to win this game because Notre Dame's offensive line can be had in the trenches. And while the Fighting Irish has played better over the past month, they've played weak opponents during that span.

Notre Dame ranks 84th in rushing success rate, and their best running back option, Kyren Williams, has opted out of the game. Notre Dame ranks 106th in sack rate on the defensive side and does not make plays against the blitz either. The Fighting Irish are mediocre on third down, too, and I do not expect them to move the ball much against this Cowboys defense.

Oklahoma State's offense can be functional when their quarterback doesn't throw four interceptions. But, overall, look for the Cowboys to rely on their defense to set up field position in this game. 

The Pokes will struggle at times against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass. But, Notre Dame does allow some explosive plays on standard downs, which Oklahoma State could take advantage of. And for as much trouble as the Cowboys' offense can have, the unit does rank 29th on third down success rate.

Lastly, this game matters more to the Pokes than the Irish. It's the biggest bowl game for the Cowboys in years, so they'll want it more.

PICK: Oklahoma State (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Ohio State vs. Utah (5 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

My favorite bowl game sees a new participant this season when the Pac-12 champion Utah Utes head to Pasadena for the first time to face Ohio State, who is making their 16th appearance, in "The Granddaddy of Them All." This game comes down to two things for me: motivation and toughness.
 
Utah is beyond excited to play in this classic bowl game after winning the conference during a season they did not expect to have. The Utes started nine new players on defense and had to make a quarterback change in their third game after starting 1-2. Utah also had to play through tragedy, with two players passing away within the last calendar year. The program's strength to excel during these tragic times cannot be understated. The Utes want to win this game deep down in their core.

On the other side are the Ohio State Buckeyes, who did not win their conference for the first time since 2016 after losing to Michigan handily for the first time in 12 years. Ohio State's playoff aspirations were crushed in Ann Arbor, and sadly for this prized bowl game, the Buckeyes won't have the same motivation as the Utes.

The Buckeyes were supposed to play in the College Football Playoff, but instead, have to "settle" for the Rose Bowl. Also, OSU will be without a myriad of its best players. The Buckeyes' explosive wide receiver duo of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have opted out, as well as their left tackle and best defensive lineman. I would not be surprised if more Buckeyes skip this game by the time it is all said and done.

Now to the game itself. The matchup favors the Utes' style of play, as they will attempt to run the ball as Oregon and Michigan did against Ohio State. The team ranks 23rd in rushing success rate and 16th in adjusted line yards. Utah's offensive line is not as good as Oregon or Michigan's unit, but it does enough with its triple-headed running back lineup. Tavion Thomas is the bell cow of the rushing unit with 5.6 yards per carry, and he's tough to bring down. 

The Utah offense as a whole has really taken off behind quarterback Cam Rising, an efficient passer in this run-heavy, play-action offense. Since the Utes' Week 5 bye, they've won eight of their nine games while scoring at least 28 points in every game. 

Utah's passing offense ranks 22nd in success rate, but they do not have explosive receiving options. They use their tight ends often to get mismatches against smaller defenders and find holes in the zone with Britain Covey. The Buckeyes' defense should limit Utah's passing game, but I see OSU struggling to be physical enough to shut down Utah's rushing attack. This will lead to third and short situations, and Ohio State's defense ranks 79th in third-down success rate. This means it will be a long day for the Buckeyes' defense.

Ohio State's offense is fantastic, and it has taken advantage of having better athletes at receiver and a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who can sling it. However, the Buckeyes will be without their best playmakers in this game, not to mention their left tackle, against a stout Utes defense.

Utah's defense is led by its All-American Devin Lloyd. For those who haven't watched the Utes play much this season, you will enjoy watching number 0. He's all over the field and has the speed to chase down Ohio State's speedy running back TreVeyon Henderson. 

Utah's pass defense also ranks 10th in success rate and 44th in pressure rate, led by Mika Tafua's 9.5 sacks. Anytime Ohio State has faced a defense that can punch back this season — Michigan, Penn State or Nebraska — the offense hasn't had its usual success. Well, guess what? Utah's defense can hit OSU back.

I'll take Utah with the points but look for them to win outright.

PICK: Utah (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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