Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's College Football Week 9 Expert Picks, Best Bets

We went 3-2 in Week 8, as we continue to piece together a winning season. 

And with how crazy this college football season has been, we'll take it. 

Let's keep it rolling.

Here's how I'm wagering on Week 9, along with my Bear Bytes.

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Last Week: 3-2
Season: 21-17

Notre Dame has pounded the service academies the last few years, with no game closer than 35 points. Some might call this a look-ahead spot. I call it a chance to get the mojo back after an idle week following the loss at BYU. This one shouldn’t be close.

BYU has run the gamut of emotions the last two weeks — from the high of one of the biggest wins in school history to an overtime loss at UCF last week. Next week is the Holy War at Rice-Eccles against Utah, in a game the Cougars have to have. BYU will win this week, but this feels like a go-through-the-motions type of game in a weird spot. 

Barring a bunch of IU turnovers, I just don’t know how the Gophers score in this one. The Indiana defense is still very good and should make life miserable for a pretty vanilla Minnesota offense.

The last time Missouri took the field, it got blasted by Ole Miss and looked awful offensively. Yes, the next three games are looming: Texas, at Georgia and Kentucky. But to make those games matter and potentially get to 9-3 and into the CFP discussion, the Tigers can’t slip up here. Arkansas snapped its SEC losing streak last time out, but asking for two wins in a row is a lot.

Last Week: 2-0, +3.15
Season: 10-13, +2.21

Boston College +210
Cincinnati +245
Auburn +400
FIU +440

Last week, five of the eight ranked teams on the road against unranked opponents went down. And if Michigan had a competent offense, it likely would have been six of eight. This week, seven ranked teams are on the road against unranked opponents.

There have been five ranked underdogs against unranked teams this season. Those ranked teams are 4-1 outright, with Tennessee’s loss at South Carolina last week the lone defeat. We have two more this week: Wisconsin at Iowa and Northwestern at Oregon.

Over the last three weeks, the AP’s top two teams are a combined 2-4, with three losses to unranked teams. Both No. 1 Miami and No. 2 Ohio State are on the road against unranked opponents this week.

Five Power 4 teams remain winless in conference play: Colorado (0-4), Penn State (0-4), Maryland (0-4), Michigan State (0-5) and Vanderbilt (0-5).

Just four Power 4 teams remain undefeated in conference play: Miami (5-0), Utah (4-0), UCLA (5-0) and Ohio State (4-0).

There have been four games this season in which a top-seven team was a single-digit favorite away from home against an unranked opponent. Those favorites went 0-4 ATS and lost twice outright:

• BYU (-7.5) lost 39-31 at UCF
• Indiana (-7.5) won 13-6 in overtime at Michigan
• Texas (-7.5) lost 27-24 in overtime against Oklahoma
• Indiana (-9.5) won 20-17 at Nebraska

Really close to losing all four outright. 

This week, No. 2 Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite at USC, and No. 6 Utah is a 6.5-point favorite at Cincinnati.

No. 25 WISCONSIN @ IOWA

Dating back to 2020, Iowa is 24-6 in regular-season games with a spread between -4 and +4. Wisconsin has lost its last four meetings with Iowa, scoring 10, 6, 10 and 0 points. Iowa hasn’t lost to both Minnesota and Wisconsin in the same season since 2014.

AUBURN @ No. 12 OLE MISS

If Auburn pulls the upset, Alex Golesh will become just the second head coach to win two road games against top-12 teams as a double-digit underdog in his first year at a school. The first? Warren Powers at Missouri in 1978. His Tigers upset No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 2 Nebraska as double-digit dogs that year.

No. 17 FLORIDA vs. No. 3 GEORGIA

Since 1978, Florida and Georgia have met 18 times with a double-digit spread. There have been just two upsets: Florida won 38-20 as an 11.5-point underdog in 2014, and Georgia won 37-17 as a 20.5-point underdog in 1997.

No. 5 NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY

Over the last three seasons, Notre Dame has won all four games against service academies by at least 35 points, outscoring them 191-41.

CLEMSON @ FLORIDA STATE

Something’s gotta give. Clemson is 7-10 against Power 4 teams since the end of the 2024 season, while Florida State is 5-21 against Power 4 teams since the end of the 2023 season.

No. 1 MIAMI @ UNC

North Carolina is 3-6 at home under Bill Belichick. The Tar Heels’ three wins came against FCS schools East Tennessee State and Richmond, and a Stanford team that went 4-8 last year.

No. @ OHIO STATE @ USC

Ryan Day is 30-2 on the road against teams not named Michigan. Both losses, at No. 4 Texas and No. 3 Oregon, came by one point on essentially the final play of the game. Lincoln Riley is 5-16 in his last 21 games against ranked opponents and 4-13 as an underdog against ranked teams. Against top-10 opponents as an underdog, he’s 1-9, including 0-5 at USC. The lone win? At No. 2 Ohio State in 2017.

KANSAS STATE @ COLORADO

Colorado is 2-15 in its last 17 games against Power 4 teams.