Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's college football Week 7 study guide

This past Saturday was one of the best days in college football we've seen in quite some time.

For the first time since 2016 and just the fifth time since the FBS and FCS split in 1978, we saw four top 11 opponents fall to unranked teams in the same day. Top ranked Alabama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984, fourth ranked Tennessee lost to a 3-2 Arkansas team, tenth ranked Michigan lost to a 3-2 Washington squad, and eleventh ranked USC fell to a Minnesota team that walked into the game with three losses. 

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what's notable for the upcoming week.     

I've decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. 

This week, six ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with three ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We'll dive into those shortly. Nine of the teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll play this weekend, and 20 of the top 25 have action as well. 

Let's dive into my thoughts and matchups to watch for in Week 7.

Pretty in Provo

Big Noon Kickoff will be taking place in Provo, Utah this Saturday, with an undefeated Cougars squad hosting the 3-2 Wildcats. Kalani Sitake has his alma mater vying as a serious contender for a Big 12 title game berth. BYU has a rich history within the realm of college football, with notable occurrences like taking down Michigan in the 1984 Holiday Bowl, Ty Detmer leading them to an upset win against powerhouse Miami en route to winning the Heisman in 1990, and producing several NFL stars like Steve Young, Puka Nacua and Fred Warner. 

It might not seem like it to the average fan, but this is a program with a supremely rich tradition of football— and I couldn't be happier to head there this weekend.  

Red River Rivalry: SEC edition

This will be the first time in the 124-year history of this rivalry that both teams will face each other as SEC opponents. The No. 1 Longhorns are 14.5-point favorites, and will likely have Quinn Ewers back under center. I like Texas here, as I'm not sure people know how bad No. 18 Oklahoma’s offense has been. The Sooners are 117th in the FBS in offensive expected points added (EPA), which for perspective is worse than Northwestern and fractionally better than the UCLA team we've seen lose four straight games. I know crazy things happen in rivalries, and Oklahoma has won five of the past six in the series, but it sure seems like this one could get ugly, especially after Texas kind of gave the game away in last year's matchup. Sarkisian and company were up 30-27 with 1:17 left, and let the Sooners drive 75 yards for a touchdown in just five plays. Ewers is sure to remember that.  

Buckeyes visit Autzen 

Last week, I called this the "Big Ten game of the year" and now it's finally here in the form of  No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon. There are so many storylines to watch here, and it could even be a preview of the conference championship game since there are no divisions this year. Can Dillon Gabriel get it done Saturday in Eugene? He's thrown three interceptions in the last two weeks and his yards per attempt is way down from earlier in the season. Their 81% red-zone conversion rate is 94th in FBS and all three of Gabriel's interceptions have come in the red-zone— tied with Brett Gabbert (Miami (OH)) and Tucker Gleason (Toledo) for the most of any quarterback in FBS this season.

From what we’ve seen from the Ducks this season, do we think they "class out" to Ohio State’s level? Ryan Day's team has won each of its first five games by 28+ points, which has never happened in school history. They've also got NFL talent at almost every position, from freshman stud Jeremiah Smith at receiver to guys like J.T. Tuimoloau at defensive end. So what is their weakness? If they're going to take a regular season loss, it's likely to come against the Ducks this Saturday or against fourth ranked Penn State in Happy Valley on November 2nd. This one should be incredible. 

Cardiac Canes

It's now been back-to-back weeks where my Hurricanes have pulled out last minute wins against inferior opponents. Cam Ward has willed Miami to victory with some incredible fourth quarter play. The fifth-year quarterback leads the country in passing yards (2,219), passing touchdowns (20) and has thrown for 300+ yards and at least two touchdowns in every game this season. The 25-point deficit against Cal was the largest comeback for the Canes since 2003, and is the largest comeback win in FBS this season. But how long can they keep doing this? These are undoubtedly the sort of games Miami has failed to win in years past, but that doesn't mean they need to be in dog fights against unranked opponents every week. Arguably their toughest game on the schedule is next, facing a Louisville team that is coming off back-to-back one score losses against Notre Dame and SMU. Talk about a perfect time for an off week. 

Rebels to run wild in Baton Rouge

After losing a shocker against Kentucky two weeks ago, No. 9 Ole Miss got back on track with a 27-3 victory against South Carolina this past weekend despite several people thinking it'd be a spot where they struggle. Still, the Rebels are only a field goal favorite this week against an LSU team (ranked 13th) that is struggling defensively. This number seems low to me, when you consider the firepower of Jaxson Dart along with the fact that LSU has given up 35 "big plays" (rushes of 10+ yards and receptions of 20+ yards) this season. Conversely, Ole Miss leads the country in big plays generated with a whopping 83, nine more than the next best team (Miami with 74). This matchup feels like a "loser leaves town" type of game when considering CFP implications. 

Morgantown a trap for undefeated Cyclones

Last week I said Fayetville would be a trap for the Vols, and this week I think Morgantown will be the same for the Cyclones. Iowa State is the highest ranked team in the Big 12, but this is a very dangerous spot for them in a night game against a Mountaineer offense averaging 31.8 points per game behind fifth-year quarterback Garrett Greene. He was tied with Boston College's Thomas Castellanos last season for the most rushing touchdowns by an FBS quarterback with 13, and led West Virginia to a dominant 38-14 win against Oklahoma State last week. Neal Brown is 26-23-3 against the spread as an underdog in his head coaching career with 18 wins straight up in that span. Saturday could be his 19th. 

How about the Warhawks?

Louisiana Monroe is 4-1 with their only loss coming against Texas— the top ranked team in this week's AP poll. Are they the team to watch in the Sun Belt, affectionately known as the "Fun Belt" conference? They've played two quarterbacks this season, with General Booty who was a backup at Oklahoma for two seasons along with Aiden Armenta who engineered an upset win against undefeated James Madison this past week. Head coach Bryant Vincent took over UAB on an interim basis when Bill Clark stepped away in 2022, and was able to lead them to seven wins and a Bowl game victory. UAB decided to hire Trent Dilfer instead of retaining Vincent, so he spent last season as the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach for New Mexico before getting the ULM gig this season. A win on Saturday would be the Warhawks first five-win season since 2019 and move them closer to their first bowl game since 2012. From 2020 to 2023, they went 10-36. A true flip of the script could be in the works. They'll take on a 1-4 Southern Miss team this week. 

Potential MAC title game preview?

I know Northern Illinois lost to Buffalo and Bowling Green barely beat Akron, but both squads have easily grabbed the biggest headlines within the MAC this season. Thomas Hammock's squad took down fifth ranked Notre Dame a few weeks ago in a shocking upset. For perspective, MAC teams were 0-50 against AP top five teams since 1978 going into that game. The Falcons on the other hand have played two Power conference opponents closely, losing to Penn State and Texas A&M by less than seven points each. Bowling Green is favored by three points in this game.     

All about Ashton

I brought this up last week, and he backed me up by recording 186 rush yards and three rushing scores against Utah State. So how real of a chance does Ashton Jeanty have to win the Heisman? With a few undefeated quarterbacks still left and a two-way star like Travis Hunter, can a Mountain West running back really have a legit chance? Well he's the favorite at +225 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and he's currently on pace for 2,680 yards and 41 rushing touchdowns— assuming he plays in a bowl game. Both of those marks would break Barry Sanders' NCAA single-season records in each category, although remember Sanders’ bowl game stats didn’t count in his season total back in 1988. He and the Broncos face a Hawaii defense that is holding opponents to 120.6 rush yards per game, but hasn't faced anyone close to the caliber of Jeanty. 

Crucial game for Trojans 

USC played for the Pac-12 title and had the Heisman Trophy winner in 2022. But since then, it's been a disappointing run for the Trojans. Is it talent, coaching, luck or a combo of each? Since October 12th of last year, SC is 5-7— which is the same mark as Washington State and TCU, but worse than Cal, North Carolina, Minnesota, Maryland, Virginia, and Syracuse among others. So how big of a game is this for the Trojans? I'd say pretty huge, considering it feels like all the momentum after the week one upset of LSU is now gone and seemingly moving the other direction. One more tidbit to leave you with— through his first 32 games, Clay Helton was 23-9; Lincoln Riley is 22-10. 

Huge Big 12 matchup in Boulder

After the Ohio State at Oregon matchup, the game I’m looking forward to the most is Kansas State at Colorado. Can the Buffs run defense stand up to the Wildcats prolific rushing attack? Can CU score on a rugged defense (which they couldn’t in Lincoln)? Does Deion's bunch pull off the upset and really announce itself as a factor in the Big 12 race? Kansas State's Avery Johnson's 321 rushing yards are the third most of any Power 4 quarterback and as a team they average 252.2 rushing yards per game— also the third highest among all Power 4 teams. What will Travis Hunter do this week to boost his Heisman campaign? We'll have to tune in on Saturday night for the answer to all of these questions. 

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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