The Big Picture: Is a CFP First-Round Bye Actually a Disadvantage?

Ryan Day walked into the interview room with a blank stare on his face. No. 2 Ohio State, the defending national champion, had just been stunned by No. 10 Miami in a 24-14 loss in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl. And Day was dejected.

Much of the pregame chatter was about how lethal the Buckeyes' defense — statistically the best in the country — was, and how the Hurricanes’ offense would probably struggle against it.

What transpired on New Year’s Eve, though, was that Miami dominated the line of scrimmage, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Hurricanes harassed the Buckeyes, sacking quarterback Julian Sayin five times and limiting them to 45 total rushing yards. On the other side of the ball, Miami was physical in the running game, rushing for 157 yards. On the Hurricanes’ final touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, they ran the ball eight times out of the 10 plays.

Ohio State had been ranked the No. 1 team in the country for most of the season. Only after the Big Ten championship game loss to Indiana were they unseated. But even the best teams get rusty. The Buckeyes had 25 days in between the conference title game on Dec. 6 and their first CFP game on Dec. 31 after earning a first-round bye. As a comparison, NFL teams will only go about two weeks off between games if they earn a first-round bye.

So, is getting the first-round bye worth it anymore? It’s supposed to be a reward for a successful season. A team gets to reset and get players healthy. But in these first two years of the 12-team playoff, it’s arguably become some kind of disadvantage instead.

[MORE CFP: 4 Takeaways From Miami's Cotton Bowl Win Over Ohio State in CFP Quarterfinals]

Last season, all four teams who earned first-round byes — Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State — lost their first playoff game in the quarterfinals.

This year, it wasn’t just Ohio State who kept that streak going. No. 4 Texas Tech, the Big 12 champion, was shutout by No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl on Thursday, 23-0. And then No. 3 Georgia was stunned by No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, knocking out the reigning SEC champs in the same round as last year. 

Only Indiana, the No. 1 overall seed, won its quarterfinal game. Seven out of eight teams losing in the past two years? That’s a trend.

What’s more is that the teams who played in the first round outscored their opponents who had a bye in the first quarter, 51-3, over the eight quarterfinal games in the past two years.

Day can offer an explanation for this. A year ago, after Ohio State beat Tennessee in the first round in Columbus, he spoke about how his team built momentum because it played in the first round and therefore didn’t have to create momentum entering the next game. It went on to crush Oregon in the Rose Bowl, 41-21. 

Day and his players were mindful of that entering this year’s CFP.

[2025 College Football Playoff Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each CFP Semifinal Game]

"It’s been chippy the past few days," Day told reporters at media day earlier this week when asked about the almost four-week layoff. "They’re tired of practicing against each other. They’re barking at each other in practice, almost getting like the preseason again. So, that’s a good sign. That means we’re ready to go hit somebody else. These guys are highly, highly motivated, and they know that sometimes the most difficult game is the first one in the playoff. 

"And so that’s been our focus, starting really fast in this game and playing for 60 minutes."

But after the final whistle Wednesday night, Day’s tone was quite different. He took the blame for the way his team started the game, getting down 14-0 by halftime.

"We worked really hard during the last three weeks leading up to this game to come out of the gates and win the first quarter, win the first half, be ready to go," Day said. "I thought we had an excellent plan. I think the guys bought into it. But at the end of the day, we didn’t get it done, and that starts with me and goes down from there. I take responsibility for not getting the guys ready. 

"We spent an inordinate amount of time putting the plan together to get everybody ready to go play in that first half, and we didn’t win the first half. So, you know, we’ve got to figure out what that was and learn from it moving forward."

[MORE CFP: 4 Takeaways From Ole Miss' Dramatic Sugar Bowl Win vs. Georgia in CFP Quarterfinals]

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire was asked about his team’s lengthy break as well, and if that was a reason for the disappointing performance. It had been 26 days between the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 6 and the Red Raiders’ loss to the Ducks on Jan. 1. 

Georgia had the same number of days off. But unlike Ohio State and Texas Tech, the Bulldogs didn’t look like the hiatus impacted them the same way, as they had a 21-12 halftime lead.

Are these losses by teams that earned byes just a coincidence or the result of a few bad matchups? For instance, last year, Boise State and Arizona State earned byes as conference champions because the initial seeding rule was to give the four best conference champions a first-round bye. That rule has since changed to instead reward the top-4 teams, regardless of whether they won their league.

"We believe in this program you don’t make excuses, and you don’t let anybody make them for you," McGuire told reporters after the game. "We’ve got to do better. If this is going to be what the College Football Playoff is, then we’ve got to find a way to be better to win that game."

Even so, you can’t deny there is some impact of having too much time off before a playoff quarterfinal game. Time will tell whether the CFP committee addresses this in some way moving forward.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!