Big Ten Games To Keep An Eye On

By Jason McIntyre

The Big Ten announced last week it would only play in-conference games in 2020. But from a purely football perspective, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the conference.

Yes, we’ll all miss Penn State vs. Virginia Tech, Michigan at Washington, Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin and Ohio State at Oregon.

On the flip side, the move doubles down on the drama of conference games for playoff contenders like Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State.

Here are the five Big Ten games I’m most looking forward to this Fall — and how I'll be betting on them.

(All lookahead lines via FOX Bet.)

September 18: Iowa at Minnesota (-3.5) 

The Gophers won 11 games last year, but the two losses are what everyone remembers. And one was to the Hawkeyes, a thrilling 23-19 game in which they fell behind 20-3 but nearly rallied to win.

In four years, PJ Fleck took Western Michigan from 1-11 to 13-1; in three years, he took Minnesota from 5-7 to 11-2. He’s one of the best coaches in America. And he’s got his entire offensive line returning intact, as well as QB Tanner Morgan.

The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, lost 3-year starting QB Nate Stanley to the NFL and return seven other offensive starters, including do-it-all receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette. But removing two non-conference games means the Hawkeyes open the season going on the road with a first-time QB — Spencer Petras — who has thrown 10 passes in his career.

So Minnesota, seeking revenge against a rival in its home opener in 2020, is only favored by a little more than a field goal? The hook feels like a giveaway here.

I’ll take the Gophers at home to cover. Fleck’s Gophers are 16-9-1 ATS in the last two years (64 percent), one of the most profitable teams in the country.

September 26: Wisconsin at Michigan (-3)

Due to the non-conference games being canceled, the Badgers' game against Michigan will not be preceded by a game against a dangerous Appalachian State team, or a showdown vs. Notre Dame that was to take place in Green Bay the following week.

This is Wisconsin’s toughest game on the schedule, it’s on the road, and it's against a team it shellacked last year 35-14. Wisconsin actually led 35-0 in a total embarrassing no-show from Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines.

One interesting stat that leads me toward the Badgers once more: Paul Chryst has worked wonders on the road since taking over in Madison. Wisconsin is 17-8 ATS on the road over the last five seasons. At 68%, that’s tied for fifth best during that span.

October 24: Ohio State (-6) at Penn State

This is probably the most important football game of the year in the conference. Michigan vs. Ohio State will understandably get more hype, but for Penn State, this game will likely determine if they can make the playoff.

At home, presumably under the lights in Beaver Stadium, it’s interesting Ohio State is favored by this many.

Without knowing how many — if any — fans will be in the stadium roaring for the blue and white, I still love PSU getting the points. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State in the last three tries, but two of the losses came by just one point.

This will be OSU coach Ryan Day’s most difficult road game since taking over as head coach. Meanwhile, James Franklin is a cover machine; since 2016, the Nittany Lions are 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%), fourth best in college football.

November 7: Penn State (-6) at Nebraska

Nebraska was one of the biggest disappointments in college football last year, with Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers going 5-7 and not even qualifying for a bowl game.

There were pockets of Heisman hype for sophomore QB Adrian Martinez going into the season, but he regressed following a promising freshman year, and was replaced in the season finale against Iowa.

Assuming Martinez wins the starting job — not a given — the Cornhuskers offense will return 92 percent of production from a season ago, second most in the country (Cal is first).

This game is a tough spot for Penn State. Off the seismic home showdown vs. Ohio State, there are back-to-back road games against Indiana and Nebraska. Then they return to Happy Valley for a game against Michigan State.

Still, James Franklin was 3-1 last year as a road favorite, and I’ll back the Nittany Lions here as a favorite.

Penn State’s offense returns nine starters, including future NFL running back Journey Brown, who should be able to find holes against a rush defense that gave up 188 yards per game last season, ranking 94th in the country.

November 28: Michigan at Ohio State (-11.5)

Jim Harbaugh is 0-5 against the Buckeyes, and his Wolverines have been humiliated by a score of 118-66 in the last two meetings between the teams.

Outside of the Super Bowl he took the 49ers to, this is the biggest game of Harbaugh’s coaching career. He was hired to beat the Buckeyes.

The line is going to be inflated because of perception, but you still have to look at the Buckeyes as value at home getting less than two TDs. The talent gap is just so wide.

Ohio State ranked second in Rivals' recruiting in 2017 and second in 2018; Michigan was fourth and 27th. The Buckeyes had five players selected in the first 75 picks of the 2020 NFL Draft and still have far more talent than the Wolverines.

Sure, the Buckeyes only return six starters on offense and five on defense, but by the time this game rolls around Thanksgiving weekend, a whole batch of future NFL players will have emerged for Ryan Day’s title contender.

Since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2015, Michigan is just 3-7 against the spread when an underdog. You don’t want to back Harbaugh when he’s a dog.