Big Ten Championship preview: Michigan State, Iowa battle for supremacy
The stage has been set, even if the participants are a bit of a surprise.
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1) will meet Iowa (12-0, 8-0) in Indianapolis on Saturday for the Big Ten Championship (8:17 p.m. ET on FOX).
This matchup is essentially a play-in game for the College Football Playoff, as Iowa and Michigan State are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. Few would have predicted a Big Ten championship game without defending national champ Ohio State -- much less one with Iowa -- but this is an intriguing pairing. Let's take a look at the game from both sides.
WHY IOWA WILL WIN
An opportunistic defense
Iowa ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring defense, giving up 18.7 points per game, but the Hawkeyes have big-play ability. They lead the conference with 17 interceptions and have taken four of them back for touchdowns. Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year Desmond King leads the nation with eight interceptions and will be key to slowing down now-healthy Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook, who can make all the throws but has a penchant for putting the ball in danger. Iowa has shown to be more than capable of taking advantage of such mistakes.
Underdog mentality
All season, doubters have downplayed the Hawkeyes' success. Boring, ordinary, and lucky are a few of the nicer adjectives analysts and writers have used to describe this football team. It would be naive to think the Hawkeyes haven’t heard all of the criticism and been feeding off it. Most people outside of Iowa City aren't giving the team much of a chance to leave Indy with the Big Ten title, but this type of constant criticism is what keeps teams from becoming overconfident when they win a lot of games. Motivation won't be lacking.
WHY MICHIGAN STATE WILL WIN
Connor Cook
Michigan State brings the Big Ten's Quarterback of the Year back to Indianapolis, where he starred two years ago in a title-game upset of Ohio State. Cook is back from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the Spartans' big win over the Buckeyes two weeks ago, and he has a deep receiving corps to utilize if Iowa’s Desmond King is able to neutralize Big Ten Receiver of the Year Aaron Burbridge. Cook has improved as a game manager but still has a knack for knowing when to take a deep shot. He will be a handful for the Hawkeyes.
A rejuvenated running game
Michigan State expected to have one of the best running games around this year, but offensive line injuries scuttled those plans for much of the season. During the past two weeks against good defensive fronts, however, the Spartans have run for 203 and 188 yards. Any defensive coach will tell you the toughest offense to stop is one with balance, and the Spartans have a deep backfield for Cook to lean on.
Better athletes
Michigan State and Iowa both are well-known for finding diamonds in the rough in recruiting and developing those players into NFL prospects. MSU has typically recruited at a higher level, though. The Spartans' classes have averaged a 29.8 national ranking and checked in at 3.5 in the Big Ten over the past four years; the Hawkeyes have average rankings of 43.2 and 6.8 in the same time period, per Scout.com. Maybe more noteworthy: Michigan State has signed 22 four-star prospects and one five-star prospect in the past four years, while Iowa has brought in eight four-star and no five-star recruits.