Big 12 Preview: Oklahoma still rules league, must watch for Cyclone warning
By RJ Young
FOX Sports College Football Writer
Editor's Note: The story of the 2021 college football season, like several of the seasons before it, is David vs. Goliath. In each of the Power 5 conferences, there is a very familiar prohibitive favorite and defending champion. As he previews the five conferences this week, RJ Young breaks down the behemoth in each league and identifies the potential Davids who could shake up the College Football Playoff race this fall. RJ started with the Big Ten and now previews the Big 12.
Ahead of Big 12 media days this year, 39 media members were asked to participate in preseason polling.
Of the 39, 35 picked No. 2 Oklahoma to win the Big 12 championship.
For the past six years, they would’ve been right. What’s more? Oklahoma has won the Big 12 title 14 times in 25 years, including when the league still had 12 teams.
OU has been so dominant in the Big 12 that the joke is the league should’ve been renamed the Sooner Conference years ago, but that’s taken by the Sooner Athletic Conference. Regardless, "Big 12" has mostly become shorthand for "Oklahoma" in the College Football Playoff era.
It’s not that Oklahoma has made the CFP four times in six years. It’s that OU has been the only Big 12 representative to do so, and the Sooners have grown tired of carrying the conference on their backs.
So they've decided to change their residency from the Big 12 to the SEC, as you might’ve heard.
For more up-to-date news on all things Oklahoma, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
The Sooners might do that with quite a statement if my predictions are to become fact: Oklahoma is fielding its best team since 2017 and the first one since then that I feel is capable of winning the national title.
The defense returns veterans at linebacker in Brian Asamoah and Nik Bonitto and features ballhawks, such as D.J. Graham at cornerback.
The offense is laced with firepower, starting with the howitzer where Spencer Rattler’s right arm should be, two outstanding tailbacks in Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks, and perhaps the second-best wide receiver room in the country with Marvin Mims, Theo Wease and Jadon Haselwood.
It’s all put together by a coach many believe to be one of the smartest in college football: Lincoln Riley.
Riley doesn’t know what it’s like to not be Big 12 champion at Oklahoma. Since joining the program as offensive coordinator in 2015, he has rented a hotel room near AT&T Stadium in December and celebrated at midfield every year.
Winning the Big 12 title in Norman is no longer celebrated but expected, like graduating high school or moving out of your parents’ house — or putting up 40 a game.
This season, when expectations could not be higher for the program — both in Norman and nationally — few neutrals expect anybody other than Oklahoma to win the provincial title.
But if another team is capable, it might just be Iowa State.
BIG 12 CONTENDERS:
Among those 39 voters in the Big 12 media poll, the four who did not pick Oklahoma all picked Iowa State. That’s not an accident.
The Cyclones are coming off the best season in school history. In 2020, they were one of just two teams to beat Oklahoma, made the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time and beat Pac-12 champion Oregon 34-17 in the Fiesta Bowl for the first major bowl victory in their history.
All of the stars from that 2020 team return, led by the first unanimous All-American in Iowa State history, RB Breece Hall. Also returning are a four-year starter at quarterback in Brock Purdy; the nation’s best returning linebacker in Mike Rose, who had 96 tackles and four interceptions in 2020; the Big 12’s best returning tight end in Charlie Kolar; and the only returning Power 5 player with double-digit sacks in 2020 in Will McDonald.
For more up-to-date news on all things Iowa State, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
ISU coach Matt Campbell fronts a team that could prove to be his best all time one year after fielding Iowa State’s best of all time.
There’s little question that ISU can get back to the Big 12 title game. The question the Cyclones have to answer is: Do they have what it takes to win the Big 12 Championship?
Along the way, they’ll face a preseason Top 25 Texas and more than a handful of teams — including Oklahoma State, Texas Christian and Kansas State — capable of handing them an L.
But for the first time, Iowa State will walk into every game knowing it’s as good or better than every team it plays. That is the kind of attitude that wins championships.
Perhaps it’s because the roster is always full of four- and five-star players. Perhaps it’s because Texas hired an offensive coordinator who won a national title as an offensive coordinator elsewhere.
For more up-to-date news on all things Texas, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
Perhaps it’s because everything is bigger in Texas — including the Longhorns’ ego. But I’m writing about Texas' chance to win the Big 12 title in large part because the AP ranked the Longhorns No. 21 and because the chasm is not so wide between them and the Sooners that we can count them out like we can with, say, Kansas.
But I’m honestly perplexed by Texas. I see a team that has all of the ingredients to cook every team they play, yet the Longhorns have found ways to light their own kitchen on fire every year since 2009.
They’ve been so adept at this that even Texas legislators are roasting them like pit barbecue off Sixth Street. Earlier this month, UT president Jay Hartzell testified before the state senate at a hearing called the "Future of College Sports in Texas," in which he was asked to defend the school's move to the SEC.
In the course of that hearing, state senator and Texas Christian alumna Lois Kolkhorst asked Hartzell what UT's annual athletic budget is.
"It’s over $200 million," Hartzell said. "It’s probably 220, 225, in that range," which he acknowledged likely makes Texas the biggest spender on college athletics in the country.
"And that’s without a winning football team of late," Kolkhorst said.
"In spite of our football team," Hartzell said. "We’ve been winning, just not like we’d like to win."
"[Texas is] 3-7 against the Horned Frogs, so maybe your fan base would rather lose to Alabama than TCU," Kolkhorst replied.
It’s worse than that. Texas is 2-7 against Texas Christian in its past nine meetings. No matter, Hartzell was roasted.
The only way to redeem yourself after being righteously sick-burned by a state senator is to win the Big 12 title. Steve Sarkisian has the players to do it, and athletic director Chris Del Conte hired the best (former Alabama) staff money can buy.
Now the Longhorns have to do what no one in Austin has since Instagram launched, the Bitcoin network was created and running back Bijan Robinson was 7 years old: Win the league.
This is traditionally the Oklahoma State spot on the program, but doubts remain about quarterback Spencer Sanders’ ability to take care of the football and whether the OSU defense can hold up for an entire season.
But play defense and turn out first-round talent? That’s what the Horned Frogs do. Texas Christian coach Gary Patterson isn’t scared of asking players to change positions, either. He has moved former high-school wide receiver Shadrach Banks to linebacker and former LSU outside linebacker and 2019 national-champion Marcel Brooks to wide receiver.
To back up starting quarterback Max Duggan, Patterson added former Oklahoma quarterback Chandler Morris while keeping expectations down for perhaps the player with the best chance to break out this season in running back Zach Evans.
For more up-to-date news on all things TCU, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
At one point during the 2020 cycle, Evans was the No. 1 running back in the country and signed with Georgia. He eventually enrolled at TCU last fall and is set to lead the Horned Frogs' rushing attack to new heights as the program’s first five-star signing.
Pick: Oklahoma
OU is so over winning the Big 12 that the Sooners are leaving the conference. With the most talented roster in the league, the Sooners ought to win their seventh title in a row.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The No. 1 Ranked Show with RJ Young." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young, and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.