Best 2024 college football futures, head-to-head bets from Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
The 2024 college football season is almost here, so it's time to get those preseason futures bets in before it's too late.
I've already shared one round of my best futures bets, both in written form and on my "Bear Bets" podcast. I've also given out my favorite national title and College Football Playoff futures plays.
But, if you read this space, you know I like to share picks at the prices I get them at, basically give actionable bets that you can all make.
There are a few more numbers that popped up that I fired on recently, so let's dive into more of my best college football futures bets for the upcoming season.
Ryan Day to win Bryant Award
The Buckeyes went hard in the portal. And, Day brought in Chip Kelly to be the offensive coordinator, OSU signed the No. 1 recruit in the country in Jeremiah Smith, and it all will need to work out with the immense pressure under Day to succeed.
Awards like this are narrative-based, and if Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the Big Ten, Day is a lock to be Coach of the Year.
PICK: Ryan Day to win Bryant Award (+1200)
Jeremiah Smith to win Biletnikoff Award
Speaking of Smith — I already have a 150-1 lunch money bet on him to win the Heisman. But I also jumped at 30-1 when I saw the Biletnikoff prices posted. He’s that good.
PICK: Jeremiah Smith to win the Biletnikoff Award (+3000)
RJ Harvey to win Doak Walker Award
Harvey had a monster second half of the season and finished with more than 1,400 yards when he was a semifinalist for this award. UCF is now in a Power Four league and the Knights will have more opportunities on the big stage to show the nation what Harvey and the UCF offense can do.
PICK: RJ Harvey to win Doak Walker Award (+5000)
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Penn State to make College Football Playoff
There isn’t a Power Four team that was able to benefit from expansion more than Penn State.
The Nittany Lions no longer have to play Ohio State and Michigan every year, which means finishing 10-2 and third in the Big Ten East is no longer likely. But 10-2 in the new-look Big Ten and 12-team playoff gets State into the CFP.
The Nittany Lions are still loaded on defense, and while I don't fully trust quarterback Drew Allar, I do trust the running game and that defense to win at least 10 games and find itself in the Playoff as an at-large.
PICK: Penn State to make College Football Playoff (-142)
Missouri Under 9.5 wins
People are high on the Tigers, but I think it's mainly because of the schedule narrative; the Tigers face just one top-six SEC team (Alabama).
Yes, Brady Cook and Luther Burden are very good players, but gone are a half dozen or so defensive contributors and DC Blane Baker. Also gone is RB Cody Schrader.
The Tigers were 4-0 last year in one-score games, including a game against MTSU. Will that continue? It's not like Auburn, Oklahoma and South Carolina will be gimme wins for this team. If you aren’t good enough, a loss will find you — regardless of schedule perception.
Maybe the Tigers will prove to be that good, but 10 wins to beat me?
I'll take my chances.
PICK: Missouri Under 9.5 wins (-125)
Big 12 Under 1.5 teams in College Football Playoff
This mishmash of the old Big 12, Pac-12 and AAC has one-bid league written all over it. I can't see several 10-win teams here and 9-3 in this league isn't going to get you in.
Look at the preseason poll. There's just one Big 12 team in the top 12, and it's barely in as Utah is No. 12.
There are no gimmes but also no great teams.
PICK: Big 12 Under 1.5 teams in College Football Playoff (-150)
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Kansas to have more wins than Arizona
You could take about eight Big 12 teams and put them in a head-to-head bet like this with each other, and you'd find little difference between them. However, I'm backing the Jayhawks in this one. I'm not as high on Arizona this year as others are, given the losses on the defensive side of the ball for the Wildcats and the staff turnover in Tucson with Brent Brennan taking over after Jedd Fisch left for Washington.
I played their win total at Under 8 wins, but that number is gone.
This is another way to, in essence, fade Arizona, since I think Kansas will do just fine with new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes after losing Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State. If Jalon Daniels can stay healthy, the Jayhawks should threaten for nine or 10 wins, despite not having a true home stadium this season.
PICK: Kansas to have more wins than Arizona (-115)
Syracuse to have more wins than Wisconsin
I'm high on the Orange this year, as Mackey Award favorite Oronde Gadsden returns and Syracuse brings in Kyle McCord at quarterback from Ohio State. The coaching change to well-regarded former Georgia assistant Fran Brown should also be a plus.
I took Syracuse at Over 6.5 wins, but that number is gone now. So this is a way of doing the same thing, as I think Wisconsin will be hard-pressed to win seven games this year. The Badgers face USC, Rutgers, Iowa and Nebraska on the road, in addition to hosting Alabama, Penn State and Oregon.
Whether Tyler Van Dyke can recapture his early Miami form will go a long way to determining how much success Wisconsin will have in 2024.
PICK: Syracuse to have more wins than Wisconsin (-105)
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Iowa State to have more wins than Virginia Tech
These are two squads that I believe have major sleeper appeal entering 2024. Not many teams have as much returning production as the Cyclones, who saw players like Rocco Becht and Abu Sama gain a ton of experience last year. The Hokies looked like a different team with Kyron Drones under center. But Virginia Tech does have six road games, including at Miami and Syracuse, while Clemson and Rutgers visit Lane Stadium.
It still feels like the Hokies aren't quite there yet in terms of nine wins or so, whereas Iowa State has a schedule where it could reach nine wins. Yes, the Cyclones do have Iowa, Kansas and Utah away from home, but they could easily reverse one-score losses from last year against the first two in 2024.
I'm high on both teams, but just a tad higher on Iowa State.
PICK: Iowa State to have more wins than Virginia Tech (+160)
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UCF to have more wins than SMU
SMU is viewed as a sleeper in the new-look ACC, but the Mustangs' lack of recent success against Power Four teams gives me pause.
Maybe this roster is built so that they'll be better equipped to compete at this level, but recruiting ranks do not suggest that. There is no Miami or Clemson on the slate, but they do have a tough three-game run of Florida State, Louisville and TCU, which will go a long way in determining if SMU is deserving of the hype.
On the other hand, I love UCF this year. The addition of KJ Jefferson along with Doak Walker hopeful RJ Harvey should give the Knights a potent offense. The defense was rebuilt with a ton of Power Five transfers and new coordinator Ted Roof.
Gus Malzahn has this program in a good spot as it heads into its second year in the Big 12. UCF has Colorado, Arizona and Utah at home, which gives the Knights some help against teams that are thought to be near the top of the league.
PICK: UCF to have more wins than SMU (+160)
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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