'Bear Bets': Best College Football Playoff bets, teams to fade
The countdown to the college football season is on, as Week 0 begins with a handful of games on Saturday, Aug. 24.
With a couple of weeks left before kickoff, "Bear Bets" is also continuing its countdown to the 2024 season.
Last week, the "Bear Bets" squad shared their favorite win total wagers and Heisman long-shot bets.
This week, Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by Collin Wilson of "The Action Network" to discuss their favorite College Football Playoff picks and which teams they're fading heading into the 2024 season.
Let's dive into the fun.
The first Coaches Poll for the 2024 season was released on Monday. Which top-10 team are you the most concerned about entering the season?
The Bear: Florida State
"You get 10 starters back. You lost basically everyone on defense. Are we sure DJ Uiagalelei is a Power 4 quarterback? All new skill position players. You've got the Clemson game. You go to SMU. You go to Miami. You go to Notre Dame. The Florida game at the end of the year, who knows what could happen in that one."
Wilson: Michigan
"There's four teams I can't see falling out of the top 10: Ole Miss, Penn State, Georgia and Oregon have schedules that say that they're going to win 10 games. I think they have the depth.
"Michigan doesn't have a quarterback that can throw. You're going to live on Jack Tuttle, or are you just going to pull what you did against Penn State in the second half and just run the ball up between the tackles the entire time, and not allow your quarterback to throw? That's not sustainable."
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Which surprise teams do you have missing the College Football Playoff?
Wilson: Texas (+172 to miss playoff)
"I have Texas Under 9.5 wins on an alternate line. It's +160 out there. When Steve Sarkisian came to Austin, he was on fire. He was fourth in red-zone touchdown percentage. Last year, that fell to 120th.
"This team is not as good, and when you don't have Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat on the defensive interior, you can't drop seven into coverage. I think Texas is in for some trouble."
Which team do you think is overpriced to make the College Football Playoff?
Wilson: Ohio State (-700)
"There's a lot of moving pieces to this team, and there are a lot of things that none of us can see. We don't know what the addition of Quinshon Judkins in that locker room is, because it wasn't good at Ole Miss. He had offensive linemen just leaving him on the turf and wouldn't help pick him up. … Will Howard is not a deep-ball thrower whatsoever. He had as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws when you look at passes over 20 yards.
"The price is horrible. Can somebody tell me why this team is -700 to make the Playoff and Oregon is -300 to make the playoff, but they have the same win total?"
How about the Big 12 — are there any conference title or CFP-related bets you like with the conference?
The Bear: UCF to make the CFP (+1300)
"I think everyone here is just kind of assuming that it's either going to be Utah or Kansas State that wins the conference, but I think this is a conference that you might need to look a little bit deeper. If you're looking for someone kind of really off the map to make the Playoff, I think two teams that aren't getting votes right now or are getting a few votes who could be dark horses are UCF and Iowa State."
Wilson: Bet Utah to make the CFP instead of winning the Big 12 (+240)
"You know this is a nine-win schedule and Utah could be a 10-win team. Not only do they have the pedigree of being Pac-12 champions multiple times, would the committee not love to have a home game in Rice-Eccles Stadium? Holy cow, that would be fantastic. But I think they'll have a good enough record. I don't think experience even matters."
Which team outside the top 25 do you think is most likely to surprise and make it into the top 10?
Wilson: SMU or Rutgers
"SMU has gone portal-heavy in the trench. Rhett Lashlee has something going on down there. Ridiculous defensive numbers — I'm talking top 10 in everything from line yards and coverage. Boy, did they get blessed by the scheduling Gods in the ACC. I project them at 9.5 wins.
"The other is Rutgers. You want to talk about leaving the Big Ten East division schedule and having the highest experience numbers on both sides of the ball in this conference — oh my goodness. Something's going on up there."
Which non-power conference team do you think will make the CFP?
Wilson: Appalachian State (+1400)
"They're the class of the Sun Belt. Texas State is getting a little bit too much love. They do have a game on the schedule against Clemson, and considering what App State has done with North Carolina and where that game falls on the schedule, if they can have a good showing, maybe lose by a possession or cover the game and look good there, they can take the rest of the schedule, and they can make it."
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What are your best related College Football Playoff bets?
The Bear: Penn State to make the CFP (-140)
"No team is better suited for the Playoff expansion than Penn State. If you go back over the last eight years, they would have made the Playoff in this scenario six times. The seven straight losses to Ohio State wouldn't have mattered. They don't play Michigan this year. The defense is still loaded."
Schwartz: Iowa to make the CFP (+790)
"Iowa won 10 regular-season games last season, averaging 15 points per game. If they're just a little better on offense, what do they turn into? A 10-win team, easily. They have Ohio State [on the schedule]. Tough game; gonna lose that game. No Oregon, Michigan, Penn State or USC. Their schedule is super easy."
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