Baylor spring football storylines: Can Bears climb back atop Big 12?

Baylor entered last season as the favorite to win the Big 12 following a remarkable 2021 in which the Bears went 12-2, won the conference title and were crowned Sugar Bowl champions. But then the team followed that success by going 6-7 in 2022, including a 1-3 record in November.

Now, head coach Dave Aranda enters his third season with a quarterback battle on his hands and a new defensive coordinator to give that side of the ball a boost after the unit gave up 26.8 points and 371.0 yards per game last season.

Like essentially every other team in the country, Baylor has not been spared from roster turnover with players entering the transfer portal. The Bears took advantage of it as well, landing Mississippi State quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who provides depth at a place where Aranda desperately needs it. Robertson could certainly win the job as early as this spring, but he will be challenged by incumbent Blake Shapen.

With all of that in mind, here are a few storylines surrounding the Bears as they begin spring ball:

QB battle brewing

Aranda named Shapen Baylor's starting quarterback at the end of last April, prompting former starter, senior Gerry Bohanon, to transfer to USF. Bohanon had led the Bears to the Big 12 championship in 2021, but after last year's spring game, Aranda went with Shapen.

Things didn't turn out as Aranda had hoped. Shapen, then a sophomore, threw for 2,709 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. In the Bears' four straight losses to end the season, including the Armed Forces Bowl result against Air Force, Shapen completed 72 of 127 passes for 839 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions.

Enter Robertson, whom Baylor snagged from the transfer portal this offseason. Robertson completed just 11 passes for Mississippi State as a freshman in 2022, but he's a former four-star recruit from Lubbock, Texas and looks the part, coming in at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds. He joins a quarterback room that is essentially bare after backup Kyron Drones transferred to Virginia Tech and four-star prospect Austin Novosad flipped his commitment to Oregon in December.

Expect Shapen and Robertson to push each other this spring, but will Aranda name a QB now or in the fall? 

How will the defense look under a new, young coordinator?

Aranda made the tough decision to fire defensive coordinator and mentor Ron Roberts after last season. Roberts coached a dominant defensive effort in 2021 when the Bears led the Big 12 in interceptions (19), turnovers (27), offensive touchdowns (29) and defensive touchdowns (three).

But the unit went backward in 2022 after losing a chunk of talent to the NFL, forcing Aranda to replace Roberts with Matt Powledge, who was Oregon's co-DC in 2022. Powledge, 35, previously served as the safeties and special teams coach at Baylor in 2020 and 2021, so he's a familiar face who knows Aranda's defensive style. 

Baylor's secondary struggled in particular last season, so how Powledge improves that unit will be a story to follow. It doesn't help that several key players transferred, but new guys joined the program, too, so all Powledge has to do is put them in the right positions to succeed. It does help that Powledge has coached under Aranda before and is familiar with the program. 

Roster turnover is never easy, but there's plenty of room for improvement and Aranda is one of the top defensive minds in the country.

Can Baylor regain its spot atop the new Big 12?

The Big 12 is up for grabs this season.

TCU had a perfect regular season up until it lost a thriller in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Texas could certainly make a run, as could Oklahoma, with both schools trying to leave their mark on the league before bolting for the SEC in 2024.

Baylor could also find itself in contention this fall. The Bears don't have to play Oklahoma or conference newbie BYU (who beat Baylor in double overtime last year) for starters. They also might have one of the best running backs in the Big 12. Last season, Richard Reese earned Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year as he set a program record for rushing yards by a freshman (972) and ranked fourth in Baylor history in rushing touchdowns (14). While the offensive line lost quite a bit of production, it was replenished via the transfer portal. And defensively, if Powledge has a defense that looks more like 2021 and less like 2022, the Bears just might be in good shape.

Nobody projected TCU and Kansas State to play for the Big 12 title last year. The league is unpredictable, so there's no reason to think Baylor won't be in the conversation this time.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

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