Auburn's next two games will likely determine Gus Malzahn's fate

Right or wrong, Gus Malzahn’s footing as Auburn’s head coach is uneasy at best.

With Alabama’s success to the north, the pressure is on Malzahn to make up for the team’s lackluster effort amid high expectations in 2015. No ultimatums have been put on the fourth-year head coach, but the message from on high couldn’t be clearer — contend for the SEC West this season or you might be looking for another place to work next year.

We don’t know if Auburn is capable of that level of play. There are signs that say yes — the defense has looked markedly improved from its 2015 form and the ill-conceived three-man quarterback rotation the Tigers trotted out in their season-opener against Clemson seems to be over — but until we see the Tigers on the field against their SEC peers, we’re just guessing.

We don’t have to wait long to find that environment, though: Auburn welcomes Texas A&M and LSU to the Plains in back-to-back weeks, starting Saturday.

There wasn’t much of a build-up, but we’ll find out exactly what Auburn is made of by the end of Week 4. Are they contenders or a middle-of-the-pack squad?

Malzahn’s job rides on the outcome.

The two contests could not be more perfectly suited to determine Malzahn’s fate. Both games are at home — leaving no viable excuse — and both come against other coaches who are feeling the heat this season.

Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin didn't exactly have a long-term lease on his job in College Station heading into 2016 — and while the burner might be off after an overtime win against UCLA, a loss to Auburn could turn the heat back on with ease. Every game is critical to Sumlin, and therefore the Aggies, this season, so there’s little room for caveats — on either side — coming out of that contest. The outcome will stand as the verdict and one party will not like where a loss leaves them.

LSU coach Les Miles entered the season in an even worse predicament than Malzahn. Miles was moments from being fired at the end of last season and is looking like he’s on his way out of town following a loss to Wisconsin in Week 1. He’ll survive until Auburn, but given LSU’s issues at quarterback, Auburn will not be given any slack for losing to them — despite a high preseason ranking.

These are de-facto elimination games. The fall-out might not come immediately, but it’s hard to see all three of these coaches surviving the year, and the outcome of these two contests in Jordan-Hare Stadium will probably go a long way to determining those fates.

One loss in the next two games would likely put Malzahn in a hole he’d struggle to dig himself out of going forward this season — only an Iron Bowl victory could possibly save him.

If he loses both contests, pushing Auburn to 1-3 on the season, he might not even make it to that Iron Bowl.

So while the boosters haven’t leaked anything and the athletic director has stayed silent, make no mistake: Gus Malzahn’s career at Auburn hangs in the balance over the next two weeks.