Auburn Football vs. Mississippi State: Matchup and Prediction
Sep 26, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn football Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) runs the ball past Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker Richie Brown (39) during the third quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
As we roll into week six of the college football season, we’ll breakdown the match-ups between Auburn football and Mississippi State for this weekend’s game in Starkville.
After five straight home games to begin the Auburn football season, the Tigers will travel for the first time all year as they face Mississippi State.
I’ve been saying all week that this will be the deciding game for both schools. I’m not sure how Mississippi State makes it to a bowl game without a win this weekend, and I don’t know how Auburn can have a successful season without a win this weekend.
That being said, there is a lot on the line for both coaches in this matchup.
The Bulldogs started out the year on a sour note by getting upset at home by South Alabama. They bounced backed with an SEC win over South Carolina, and a three point loss to LSU. Then they won in a shootout against UMASS.
I’m still not really sure what to expect from this Mississippi State team, and I don’t think they know either.
Auburn fans can pretty much say the same thing as the offensive play-calling has been up-and-down all season. The one thing we do know is that the Auburn defense has been solid all year.
This series has been split the last six seasons with Mississippi State winning the past two games. Two of the three times Auburn has won this game the past six years they’ve gone on to win the SEC.
I can’t express to you enough how important this game is for Auburn, so let’s see how the two teams matchup.
Sep 24, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (7) evades a tackle by Massachusetts Minutemen line backer Steve Casali (34) during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mississippi State won 47-35. Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi State Offense vs. Auburn Defense
The Mississippi State offense has been pretty good all year as they’re averaging 28.5 points per game and have scored at least 20 points in every game they’ve played.
They’re also averaging 433.8 total yards per game, and it’s split pretty evenly with 219.5 on the ground and 214.2 through the air.
A lot of that has to do with the emergence of sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. He leads the team in passing with 603 yards and 5 touchdowns, as well as in rushing with 329 net yards.
He is a very dynamic athlete, not much unlike Trevor Knight who Auburn has already faced this season.
The other player on offense for Mississippi State that you have to keep an eye out for is wide receiver Fred Ross. So far this season he’s caught 25 passes for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns.
I ask for it every week, but Kevin Steele never seems to listen, but I hope Carlton Davis is matched up against him all game.
Another wide receiver to watch out for is Donald Gray as he has caught 18 passes for 258 yards and a touchdown this year.
Fitzgerald is their main runner, but Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert are the running backs. Holloway has rushed for 191 yards on 41 attempts, while Shumpert has gone for 144 yards on just 26 attempts.
The offensive line has given up eight sacks in four games, but six of those came against LSU. If the Auburn defensive line can get six sacks in this game, I really like our chances.
Oct 1, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers lineman Andrew Williams (79) and linebacker Tre
Defensively for Auburn they’ve allowed just 16.4 points per game this season, and 358.4 total yards per game.
They’re allowing just 156 yards on the ground per game, and 202 through the air.
I know Carlton Davis is good enough to shut down their top receiver, which should allow Auburn to use an extra defender in the box to spy Fitzgerald.
If the defensive line can keep Fitzgerald inside the box and force him to scramble up the middle or throw the ball away, I think we can slow this offense down.
I don’t think Mississippi State will be able to just line up and run the ball against our front seven, and I don’t think Fitzgerald has the ability to light up our secondary through the air.
The only way they have success against us is if we lose containment on Fitzgerald and allow him to run for 100-plus yards.
I think at the most they score 20 points again, but I expect our defense to hold them in the teens.
Oct 1, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers running back Kerryon Johnson (21) is tackled by UL-Monroe Warhawks linebacker Chase Day (32) during the first quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Auburn Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
The Auburn offense is now averaging over 30 points per game and 488.6 yards of total offense per game. However, we have to put that in perspective and look at how they did against good competition.
Against teams outside of the Sun Belt conference, Auburn is averaging just 15.6 points and 349.6 total yards. To be fair, those three teams all possess one of the best defenses in the country, and Mississippi State does not.
The Bulldogs have given up 23.2 points per game this season, and 356.2 total yards. They really have yet to play a team with an explosive offense, so it’s hard to judge just how good their defense is this year.
Sep 24, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Massachusetts Minutemen quarterback Andrew Ford (7) makes a pass while defended by Mississippi State Bulldogs line backer Richie Brown (39) during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mississippi State won 47-35. Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
There is no questioning the talent of Richie Brown at linebacker. The senior leads the team with 28 total tackles to go along with 2.5 tackles for a loss and 1 sack.
They have two seniors on the defensive line, A.J. Jefferson and Johnathan Clavin, who have combined for 13 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks this season.
The Auburn offensive line, which has surrendered 11 sacks this season, will have their hands full with those two.
Again, it’s really hard to say how good this Mississippi State defense is because they haven’t played anybody. Looking at last year this defense gave up just 23.2 points and 391.2 yards per game.
Last year they held Auburn to just nine points, even though the Tigers had 25 first downs and 389 total yards.
The difference in this year’s game will be whether or not Auburn can convert on their red-zone opportunities. Last year they reached the red-zone four times against Mississippi State and came away with just six points.
This year teams have scored touchdowns on 9-out-of-14 trips inside the red-zone against Mississippi State. I think that gives Auburn some hope that they can come away with a few touchdowns inside the red-zone this season.
Oct 1, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) scores a touchdown as UL-Monroe Warhawks safety Justin Backus (20) and linebacker David Griffith (14) defend during the first quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Game Preview
Auburn is the more talented team in this game, but that doesn’t mean they will win.
The Bulldogs have plenty of talent on their side too, and if Auburn doesn’t bring their A-game on the road they’ll be coming home sad.
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The difference to me in this game will be Auburn’s ability, or lack of ability, to score touchdowns. They were able to kick six field goals against LSU to win the game, but I think they’ll need to get at least one touchdown against Mississippi State to win.
The Bulldogs have enough offense to score 16-20 points on our defense.
Last year Sean White did a great job of moving the football against this Mississippi State defense, but struggled to get the ball in the endzone. Surely Gus Malzahn and Rhett Lashlee can come up with some plays inside the red-zone to help our offense finish these drives.
If they can, I think Auburn wins this game fairly easily. However, if they keep having to settle for field goals, this game will come down to the last possession.
You also can’t deny the fact that this is Auburn’s first road game of the year, and you don’t know how some of these young players will respond. If Mississippi State comes out and punches Auburn in the mouth, they could get down and roll over.
I don’t see that happening in what the coaches and players know is a must-win game.
The defense will play lights out and slow down that Mississippi State attack, and Gus Malzahn will come up with a few plays inside the red-zone to give Auburn some much-needed touchdowns.
My Prediction:
Auburn – 24
Mississippi State – 13