Arch Manning can lead Texas to title, but staying on bench will benefit him

Arch Manning's dress rehearsal to be Texas' starting quarterback went about as well as anyone could've hoped after Quinn Ewers went down with an oblique injury.

The redshirt freshman completed 69.4% of his passes for 806 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions to go with 82 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns over Texas' last three games, starting with when he took over for the injured Ewers on Sept. 14 against UTSA. More importantly for the Longhorns, Ewers led Texas to decisive victories over the two starts he made, including its SEC opener against Mississippi State on Saturday. 

Texas' offense hasn't missed a beat with Manning in at quarterback since Ewers' injury. It's scored a touchdown on 16 of the 29 drives that Manning's been in at quarterback over that stretch, helping Texas rank eighth in total offense and 11th in scoring offense this season. 

Even though Manning's impressive outings didn't come against the toughest opponents (UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi State), FOX Sports' Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd each believe that he's shown enough to prove he can lead the Longhorns to the promised land.

"Whether he's the starter at Texas or not — and Ewers is their starter and he's going to be their starter and they want him back, he's their leader — but Arch has solidified them as a national championship contender because now it doesn't matter if their quarterback stays healthy," Klatt said on "The Herd." "They're still a premier team in the country with him at quarterback."

"They can win the national championship with Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers," Cowherd interjected.

"I think that's true, that's absolutely right," Klatt said in agreement. 

Despite Manning's impressive play and perception as an elite prospect, he's likely set to head back to the bench soon. The expectation in Austin reportedly is that Ewers will return and start for Texas when it plays archrival Oklahoma on Oct. 12 following its bye week. 

Klatt believes that Manning, who was the No. 1 quarterback recruit in the class of 2023 by 247 Sports, would be the starting quarterback for every team in the nation but three (Texas, Shedeur Sanders' Colorado and Jalen Milroe's Alabama). However, he also thinks that Manning will benefit from continuing to sit behind Ewers and that the redshirt freshman knows that's the case, too. 

"That family will know, and I've been told by those around him, they understand two truths about developing quarterbacks for the long run," Klatt said. "One is don't play too early, particularly in college because you can be ruined. So, he went there with the objective to develop for a couple years without being the starter, that was the objective at Texas, under a guy that's going to teach him an NFL style of system that'll be good for him long term. That's Steve Sarkisian. That's No. 1. 

"No. 2 will be the more reps you get in college, the better your success is likely to be in the NFL. If you look at the guys who've won Super Bowls since Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl, you'll see that, on average, the quarterbacks that are winning Super Bowls stayed for about 36 or more starts in college football, they attempted well over 1,400 passes, a lot of them have 50-60 touchdown passes and 900 completions. What do you see? Experience."

In this new era of college football, many quarterbacks of Manning's caliber have transferred in order to gain starter reps elsewhere. But Klatt argued that even if Manning isn't playing, he's in one of the few best programs in the country to develop as a quarterback.

"Steve Sarkisian isn't at other places," Klatt said. "So, fine, transfer, but where? Not saying there aren't other places you could go and really get developed as an NFL passer. Ohio State might be one of those. But where are you going to go? … It's also who are you being taught by. You could make the argument that, even as a backup, Arch is being developed better for his longterm success as a quarterback under Steve Sarkisian."

Sarkisian might have the best track record of quarterback development for any college coach. As an assistant coach and offensive coordinator, he helped develop current FOX Sports analysts Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez as well as Jake Locker, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, all of whom became first-round picks in the NFL Draft.

It seems like a good bet that Manning will join that list someday, and Klatt is willing to wager he'll become more than just a first-round quarterback.

"The future of football is so bright," Klatt said. "I think in 10 years, we're going to be talking about an incredible NFL Sunday matchup between Arch Manning and Dylan Raiola. … There are some players in college football that we're going to be watching for a long time. Manning is one of them." 

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