2026 College Football Week 9 Expert Picks: What To Make Of USC-Ohio State

A college football big dog will enter Week 9 with a new puppy under center.

Here is how I'm wagering the weekend on the college gridiron.

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I will absolutely hate watching USC attempt to cover this game on Saturday night, but it’s the right spot to back the Trojans. 

USC is off an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin, where it scored just seven points with -17 rushing yards. It’s the type of loss that could potentially cost a coaching staff its job. 

There’s motivation to get right this weekend at home, where USC has always played better under Lincoln Riley. USC routinely scores in the upper 20s, into the 30s, and sometimes into the 40s at home. Quarterback Jayden Maiava completes 72% of passes at the Coliseum vs. just 59% on the road. He’s got more touchdowns and the USC ground game is far better at the crib as well. 

USC’s offense is playing an Ohio State defense that’s good but not as good as in years past. It doesn't hit the quarterback as often and the run defense is just slightly worse. The Buckeyes do allow a decent amount of air yards per target and USC’s pass game can generate those explosive plays. 

I think even the most hardcore Buckeye fan would tell you that USC will score in this game.

Ohio State lost starting quarterback Julian Sayin for the season during its win against Indiana. Now, OSU is starting one of two quarterbacks making their first college football start, on national TV, against a blue blood football program. 

It’s a major game to land under center for the first time. 

Ohio State is off the bye, and it will have some new offense. OSU is healthier on the offensive line, but it has had trouble running the ball with any consistency this season. It is 98th in yards per rush (excluding the quarterback runs) and 125th in yards before contact. That's just not clean enough for the Buckeyes. 

Still, this offense has the best player in the sport in Jeremiah Smith, who can carry this thing by his lonesome against pretty much any defense, let alone this poor USC group. 

The Trojans' D is horrendous, sitting 116th in points per drive. It is terrible in the red zone and can’t rush the passer. So Ohio State should be able to score, but I’m not sure how clean it will be with a new quarterback.

When picking a favorite to cover a game, you need to have a number in your head about the final score. Is Ohio State beating USC 28-21? 31-24? 28-20? 

What’s the number where they cover this game? 

To me, 28-24 feels more likely. Or maybe 24-20, or 27-24. 

I like USC and Ohio State to win.

This is an excellent spot to back the Red Raiders — back home after a poor performance at Cincinnati last weekend. 

Texas Tech is not the same team it was last season, but it is also not the team we saw against the Bearcats. The Red Raiders have beaten Houston and Oregon State, as well as Colorado and Arizona State before losing this past weekend. They are 57th in points per drive on offense, but have been poor in the red zone, as they can’t run the ball as efficiently this season. 

The Tech defense is 26th in points per drive and can still rush the passer fairly well. It’s not what it was last year, but it is still one of the better groups in the sport. Arizona’s defense doesn’t tackle well, and it isn't great on third down either.

Arizona is now ranked and on the road after winning five straight games. The best team it has played during this five-game run is the same Bearcats team that just beat Tech. Even after the win over Tech, the Bearcats rank just 49th in SP+. The other four teams Arizona beat during the streak are all 70th or worse. 

The lone Arizona loss was to BYU, which most closely resembles this Tech team. In that game, BYU was able to pressure Noah Fifita into mistakes, and I’m not sure Arizona’s offensive line is up to the task in this game. 

The Wildcats' rushing game is 98th in yards before contact and the line allows too many sacks. Arizona’s offense is excellent on third down, but it has a high percentage of third-and-long opportunities.

I just see a difficult spot for the Wildcat offense in this game.

I’m in on Tech in this game.