2026 College Football Odds: Fade Arkansas Win Total; Back WSU

These days, college football is all about change. That includes rosters, coaching staffs, conferences and beyond.

Two teams that are undergoing some form of change are Arkansas and Washington State, and I think the two programs will head in opposite directions next season. 

Allow me to explain and lay out my best bets for both squads. 

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Arkansas Razorbacks' Over/Under win total

Arkansas hired Ryan Silverfield in December after a successful stint as the Memphis head coach. 

Silverfield’s teams featured high-octane offenses and suspect defenses, but that’s what you see at the Group of 5 level. You need to pick your poison, and he chooses to be able to score. 

I’d expect that philosophy in Year 1 for him at Arkansas, but that’s more difficult to execute in the SEC in your first season.

The offense will either feature returning quarterback KJ Jackson or Memphis transfer AJ Hill. Jackson attempted only 54 passes last season, while Hill barely played at Memphis. The rest of the offense is built with half returning starters, half portal players — the usual build for a new coach. 

Still, I trust Silverfield to have a competent offense.

Silverfield hired Ron Roberts to run the defense. Roberts just spent two years at Florida and knows the conference well. He’s got a tough job in Year 1, though. The Arkansas defense was one of the worst in the power conferences, and Arkansas went to the portal to address the roster heading into 2026. 

It’s hard to say what the defense will be this season with so much newness, but on its face I’m not sure where the dynamic playmakers come from. The defensive rebuild will take a while.

The Arkansas football schedule is difficult and that is the No. 1 reason the Razorbacks are going Under their win total. They have three non-conference games that include a trip to Utah. At best, they are 1-2 in those, with nine conference games on deck. 

It’s freaking brutal. 

There is Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Tennessee and LSU, and Arkansas will need to win at home against Missouri and South Carolina to get close to four. 

I just don’t see it happening this season. 

Washington State Over/Under win total

The Cougars' program has weathered the two-year storm without a conference. It has been rocky, it has lost coaches and talent, but it continues to win amongst all the noise and chaos. 

Washington State has won eight and seven games the last two seasons, respectively, with two different coaches. It enters this season with another new coach. Kirby Moore was the offensive coordinator for Missouri the last three seasons, where the offense was high-powered and multidimensional. His quarterback should be UC Davis transfer Caden Pinnick, who was electric as an Aggie last season. 

I’m always hesitant to get excited about an FCS transfer to an FBS power conference team because those transactions rarely live up to the hype. However, an FCS transfer to a Group of 6 team has a strong track record. 

The Cougars return enough offensive linemen to feel good about that group. They will need some skill players on the outside to step up. The Cougars' run game should be good from Day 1 with the return of Kirby Vorhees.

Former Oregon State head coach Trent Bray was hired to run the defense, and he'll have a group of transfers. Bray has a proven track record, but it's hard to gauge what this defense will be with all the new parts. It's nothing different than other programs in the same position as the Cougars.

The Cougars are back into a fully functional conference, as the Pac-12 has expanded back to eight teams for this season. They will need to win four of the seven conference games to feel comfortable about winning five games. They have a win against Duquesne in the non-conference and most likely three losses against Washington, Kansas State and Arizona. They do get a second game against Oregon State to round out the 12-game schedule. 

In other words, the plan should be to sweep Oregon State, beat Duquesne and then win two other conference games. I believe in this squad.