2025 CFP Quarterfinals Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

I'm not saying it was rocket science, but 9.5 was way too many points for Ohio State against Miami. 

Now that we got that correct pick out of the way, let's dive into my picks for the second day of CFP quarterfinal play. 

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No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Orange Bowl

I expect the Oregon defense to come out with a bit of extra juice following its fourth-quarter defensive debacle against James Madison. Texas Tech — and potentially Oregon — will have trouble driving the length of the field, so big chunk plays will be necessary. Advantage Ducks, as they generate more chunk plays than any team in the country. A couple a lack of long, time-consuming drives and red zone struggles, and you wind up with an opponent that probably isn't eclipsing 24 points. 

I’m also taking a shot with Kenyon Sadiq — a huge matchup problem — to make an impact for the Ducks. 

PICK: Texas Tech Under 24.5 points scored
PICK: Kenyon Sadiq (+130) anytime TD

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana
Rose Bowl

Alabama will probably struggle to run the ball as it has much of the year and that means we’re going to see a lot of Ty Simpson dropping back to pass. We’ve seen Simpson under pressure quite a bit as a result of Alabama’s offensive line woes and that’s bad news against an Indiana front that was in the backfield most of the night against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. And even without Stephen Daley, I expect the Hoosiers to record the first sack of the game. Bama hasn't generated a ton of pressure for large portions of the season and bad weather might cause Indiana to rely more on the ground game led by Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. 

PICK: Indiana (-140) to record first sack

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Sugar Bowl

I haven't heard the words "I like Ole Miss" muttered this week and that would worry me, as this number hasn’t hit 7, with everyone seemingly on the Bulldogs. Remember, too, UGA was a 6.5/7-point favorite on its home field, and now it's on a neutral. Something seems off. So I’m staying away from that and will look at some anytime TD scorers. The UGA tight ends were huge in the first meeting, with Lawson Luckie scoring three times. Clearly, Mike Bobo likes that TE matchup in the red zone, so maybe Luckie and the other TE, Oscar Delp, have a chance to get on the board at a nice number. Trinidad Chambliss gave the Bulldog defense fits in Athens and his legs will again be a problem. 

PICK: Lawson Luckie (+390) anytime TD 
PICK: Oscar Delp (+425) anytime TD
PICK: Trinidad Chambliss (+130) anytime TD

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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