2024 College Football picks Week 8: Fade UCLA, USC; Over Colorado team total
College football Week 8 is here, and I expect for this weekend's slate of games to validate some things that we bettors already know.
For example, UCLA is in shambles and so is USC. But just because the Bruins and Trojans have looked dismal so far doesn't mean they can't get right this weekend. Or does it?
Keep reading to see how I'm wagering on those games, plus the Colorado-Arizona tilt.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, OCT. 19
UCLA has eight offensive touchdowns this season. The Bruins rank 132nd in points scored, 111th in yards per play and 118th on third down. Their defense isn’t much better.
It is 66th in yards per play and 120th in points per drive. Its havoc rate is 101st, and it is dead last in the country on third down.
Yet, somehow UCLA is 3-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games against LSU, Oregon, Penn State and Minnesota. It makes no sense other than the argument that the bookmakers put a "Deshaun Foster tax" on UCLA after its poor performances against Hawaii and Indiana in Weeks 1 and 2.
Anyway, UCLA is getting corrected this weekend at Rutgers.
Rutgers is a brutal watch on offense with its poor quarterback play. But it might not matter much in this contest. The Scarlet Knights can run the football, and while UCLA does stop explosive runs, the Bruins don't have a particularly efficient run defense. That third-down defensive number makes me somewhat optimistic about Rutgers' ability to pass the ball when needed in this game.
It’s entirely possible that I will only need 13 points from the Knights to cover because I don’t know how UCLA scores in this contest without forcing turnovers. The Bruins are better at passing than they are at running the ball, but that is where Rutgers excels on defense — pass coverage.
I think UCLA struggles to score this weekend.
PICK: Rutgers (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points
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Wagering on a situation here. And that situation is that USC is a mess.
The Trojans are 3-3 after close losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State. I keep hearing people say that they are three plays away from being 6-0.
Not only is that not true, but it's also a loser's mentality.
USC keeps losing defensive players to the injury report, while seeing defensive regression by the week because SC does not have depth. On offense, the Trojans can move the ball until they can’t anymore (like in end-of-game situations) and their offensive line is bad.
Now, after basically ending any playoff opportunity or Big Ten title game chances with a loss to Penn State, they travel all the way across the country to play a Maryland team that has had one extra day of rest after a super embarrassing loss to Northwestern.
Maryland’s defense is 39th in EPA against the run and 48th in pass rush pressure rate. If the Terrapins play to their ability, they should slow down USC’s offense.
Maryland’s offense doesn’t generate explosive plays at a high rate, but it does pass the ball OK, which is easier against USC because SC can’t rush the passer.
I expect Maryland to score in this game. I like the Terrapins to cover, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright.
PICK: Maryland (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
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Colorado @ Arizona (4 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
What we know about Colorado is this: If the Buffaloes are facing a defense that cannot pressure quarterback Shedeur Sanders, he will dominate that defense.
The Buffs scored 38 points against Baylor, 48 against UCF and 28 against a good Kansas State team. Now they face an Arizona defense that is poor.
Arizona ranks 113th in pressure rate and in the 70s for overall defensive havoc rate. The Wildcats are beat up in the secondary, so they will have to pressure Sanders to get any defender near.
Well, pressure opens up opportunities for the Colorado wide receivers to have one-on-one matchups.
It appears Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. will be on the field for the Buffs this weekend, so I do expect fireworks for the Colorado offense.
Also, if Arizona scores like expected, the Buffs will need to keep up. I will take Colorado Over 27.5 points
PICK: Colorado team total Over 27.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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