2024 College Football picks Week 13: Back Michigan to cover, fade Oregon State

The third College Football Playoff bracket was revealed earlier this week, and I'm sure a lot of fans are excited to wager on some of those top-ranked teams this weekend, since those are the ones at the forefront of our minds.

There's nothing wrong with that. 

However, I'm taking a different approach.

I'm looking, instead, at a few games featuring squads that will be nowhere near the Playoff — except for maybe one.

Remember, there's value all over the board, not just in the top dogs.

Let's dive into my best bets for college football Week 13.

(All times ET)

SATURDAY, NOV. 23

No. 16 Colorado @ Kansas (3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

I make this wager every week, and I'm not stopping now. I'm taking Colorado's team total Over 30.5 points.

The Buffaloes are a scoring machine this year. They are led by potential No. 1 draft pick Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and his army of talented wide receivers, featuring Heisman front-runner Travis Hunter. The Buffs have scored over 34 points in all but one conference game, and the one where they didn’t was against Kansas State. That was the best team they’ve played on their conference slate. 

There are only two ways to slow down Colorado’s offense, and one is more important than the other. 

You must be able to hit Sanders in the pocket and make him uncomfortable. Kansas cannot do that. The Jayhawks pass rush is ranked 91st by PFF. The Kansas pressure rate is 74th, which is why it allows a ton of explosive passing plays. Also, if this game turns into a shootout — which is another way Kansas can win — Colorado will score a ton of points. 

I like Colorado Over 30.5 points.

PICK: Colorado team total Over 30.5 points

Northwestern @ Michigan (3:30 p.m., FS1)

This line is a tad disrespectful to Michigan, and I’m ready to pounce on it. 

While the Wolverines are not what they were in 2023, they are not a bad team. But Michigan -10.5 indicates that it is bad.

UM has lost to Texas, Oregon, Indiana at home and then Illinois and Washington on the road. All five of those are bowl teams and three are Playoff squads. Northwestern is 4-6, and the six losses are to teams that are generally in the same grouping as Michigan. Northwestern lost 24-5 to Washington, 41-24 to Indiana, 23-3 to Wisconsin, 40-14 to Iowa and just last weekend, 31-7 to Ohio State. 

One trend I’ve been following this season and have been using to guide my wagers is taking competent teams off a bye. 

Michigan is competent, although its offense tends to frustrate everyone. But the Wolverines have had two weeks to prepare after a competitive loss to Indiana. Even though the record isn’t what they wanted, they are still playing hard. 

Northwestern's defense is not terrible, but I don’t think it can stop Michigan’s rushing attack for four quarters. The Wildcats defense is awful on third down, and that’s because it is last in the country in average third down distance for the opposing offense. That will give Michigan the opportunity to run on third down.

Something else to consider is that Northwestern’s offense is very bad, and this matchup favors Michigan. The Wildcats are 129th in points per drive and have a three-and-out on nearly a third of their drives. Michigan’s defense is above average, even with some injuries at cornerback. 

Northwestern will be lucky to get to 10 points in this game. I like Michigan to cover.

PICK: Michigan (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points

Washington State @ Oregon State (7 p.m., CW Network)

Washington State’s outstanding season was slightly derailed last weekend with an upset loss at New Mexico. But the Cougars should bounce back this weekend against Oregon State. 

Oregon State started 4-1, including a win against potential Mountain West Championship Game participant Colorado State. But since that win over the Rams, the Beavers have lost five in a row, and each loss has gotten progressively worse. For example, they just lost to Air Force 28-0 last weekend. 

Oregon State has issues and injuries at quarterback, injuries at running back, and has only one reliable receiver. The team has only scored four passing touchdowns this season. 

The Beavers defense is not good and that unit also has injury issues. It is 110th in points per drive, 115th in EPA against the pass and 116th on third down. That won't be a good matchup against a Washington State offense that’s very good. The Cougars offense ranks 10th in points per drive and gains a ton of explosive plays. It will score often against the Beavers.

On the other hand, Washington State's defense isn’t great and can be scored on, but not by the Beavers. Oregon State does boast a decent offensive line and run game, but it doesn't score touchdowns. 

The Beavers' last three games saw seven points against Cal, 13 against San Jose State and zero against Air Force. SJSU and Air Force do not have excellent defenses. 

I like the Cougars big in this game.

PICK: Washington State (-12.5) to win by more than 12.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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