2024 College Football bowl game picks, predictions: Back Memphis to win, cover

Bowl season is the toughest market to wager on in college football. For most teams, we don’t know their motivation, what their rosters look like or what their depth charts look like. 

There are players who have entered the portal that are off the depth chart but also players still on campus who are not playing the bowl game. We don’t know those players until kickoff. 

And you also have to remember that certain teams will have coaching changes, even with a bowl game on the horizon. So, in those cases, there will be an interim coach on the sidelines who is unlikely to be the coach immediately after the game, as the new staff takes over. 

Players might look to show out to impress the new coaching staff or give possible portal locations one more game to study. 

Now that I've given you that context, here are my favorite wagers of the early bowl season.

(All times ET)

No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia (9 p.m., Dec. 17, ESPN)

The Tigers fit the profile of a team motivated to play. 

Memphis is a Group of Five team playing a Power Five team. That Power Five squad might not be elite, but to the Memphis players and staff, the name of the opponent carries enough weight to want to win. 

The Tigers have few players in the portal, and not many who would sit out this game. So they will have a full roster after just beating Tulane on Thanksgiving and having won 10 games. 

This set up has been a typical postseason for Memphis, which has dominated bowl games in its last three appearances. The Tigers had a 25-10 win over Florida Atlantic in 2022, a 38-10 win over Utah State in 2022, and then last season, a huge win over Iowa State by a score of 36-26. We know what we are getting from Ryan Silverfield’s squad in its bowl game.

Now, let's look at the Mountaineers.

They went 6-6 this season and fired head coach Neal Brown. Their final game of the season was a 52-15 loss to Texas Tech. How motivated is this team for an early bowl game against Memphis in Frisco, Texas? 

West Virginia has players entering the portal, players too injured to practice this week and even the athletic director admitted the school wants to play an early bowl game so it can move to next season already. 

I like Memphis to win and cover.

PICK: Memphis (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Notre Dame to win CFP

Before you get too emotional about this wager, let me explain. 

This is not a wager made because I think Notre Dame is the best team in the postseason or is a team that can win the title. It’s a play on a number and situation. 

Notre Dame has Indiana in the first game of the playoffs. The Fighting Irish have better players than Indiana and over the course of 60 minutes, they should be able to wear down the Hooisers and win. I think they probably cover the touchdown spread, but it doesn’t matter for this wager. 

The Irish just need a win. 

A win would have Notre Dame playing Georgia, which is without its starting quarterback. Georgia fans would say this is a good thing, but it is not. No matter how much you attempt to justify that take, there’s a reason he’s a backup and Carson Beck is starting. 

To further my point, DraftKings has a look-ahead line for this game with Notre Dame as the favorite! 

Can the Dawgs rally around Gunner Stockton for a win in their first playoff game? Absolutely. But good luck finding offense against Notre Dame’s defense when you have trouble running the ball before your quarterback went out. 

You get the point — Notre Dame can certainly win that game. 

So now the Irish are into the semifinals to play one of three teams — Penn State, Boise State or SMU. It most likely will be Penn State and that game would be close to a pick 'em. At that point, you can put that +800 ticket to use to start hedging off if you’d like. 

It’s a good wager to have in your back pocket for the Irish with their CFP path. 

PICK: Notre Dame (+800) to win the the CFP

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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