2023 College Football Week 12 predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
Week 12 of the college football season is here, and I like several underdogs to bark this weekend.
I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I've got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
We're coming off a winning week, so let's keep this thing rolling!
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 12.
Last week: 6-4 (36-44-1 season)
(All times ET Saturday)
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No. 24 Tulane @ FAU, noon, ESPN+
The Green Wave have just the one loss to Ole Miss (without quarterback Michael Pratt), but Tulane finds itself in a close game nearly every week. Each of the last four games have been one-score games, and even their 31-21 win at Memphis required a comeback.
Maybe it will ultimately catch up with them. Maybe it won't. But this could be a tricky spot on the road against Tom Herman's team as the Green Wave plays UTSA the following week, which will have AAC title game implications.
FAU has been so bad the last two weeks that it would be perfectly understandable to see Tulane come in a little lethargic.
PICK: FAU (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright)
No. 6 Oregon @ Arizona State, 4 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App
There's a long list of recent struggles in the state of Arizona for the Ducks, and this is likely too many points here, as Oregon has the Civil War next week and potentially a Pac-12 title game in a couple of weeks.
Often, when teams are on the outside of the CFP top four looking in, they tend to press and try to put up a big number to impress the committee. But outside of getting drilled at Utah when the QB situation was a complete disaster, ASU has played really well since the final week of September. I'll take the points.
PICK: Arizona State (+24) to lose by fewer than 24 points (or win outright)
RELATED: College football Week 12 by the numbers
No. 5 Washington @ No. 11 Oregon State, 7:30 p.m., ABC
This line has moved too much for my liking, and I haven't heard anyone like the Huskies this week. Sure, the Beavers have been close to unbeatable in Corvallis the last two years, but UW has been finding ways to win games all season.
I think the Washington offense will give Oregon State problems here. It would surely be a Cinderella story for the Beavers to ruin UW's undefeated season in its final Pac-12 home game, but all stories don't always have a happy ending.
PICK: Washington (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Illinois @ No. 16 Iowa, 3:30 p.m., FS1 and FOX Sports App
What does offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz have in store for us in his final game at Kinnick? My guess is it will be glorious, given that the Hawkeyes put up more than 20 points only once in the last five games.
Being that Iowa can't score and Illinois' last four games have been decided by three, four, one and three points, it feels like an autoplay on the 'dog. The 30.5 total, well, there isn't a chance in the world I'd bet the Over.
PICK: Illinois (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
I can't imagine laying this many points with a team coming off a 31-6 loss to a bad Navy team.
Yes, the Blazers have a couple of high-scoring wins over USF and FAU, but their defense has been dreadful all season and Temple QB E.J. Warner should be able to put up enough points to hang around.
PICK: Temple (+8) to lose by 8 points or fewer (or win outright)
Wake Forest @ No. 19 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m., NBC
Outside the loss to Ohio State, the Fighting Irish have blitzed people in South Bend, winning by 53, 24, 28 and 51 points.
After an ugly performance at Clemson two weeks ago, this looks like a classic spot off the idle week when a team just lets out its frustration against an inferior squad in its final home game of the season.
The Demon Deacons have so many problems on offense that I can't see many points here at all. The most they've scored in ACC play is 21, and with the QB problems they have, I'd be stunned if they came close to that here.
Sam Hartman should feast on his former team.
PICK: Notre Dame (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points
Nebraska @ Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m., NBC
I really am wishing for the worst by betting on two Big Ten West games this week, but while the Badgers have been incredibly disappointing, this number feels like one where the 'dog will be popular.
But this is Nebraska, who has turned it over a whopping 27 times this season, including four games with at least four.
Wisconsin may be boring and predictable, but at least I expect it to take care of the ball and capitalize on short fields when the Huskers inevitably turn it over.
The Badgers haven't lost four games in a row since 2008, so it's hard for me to wrap my head around this program being this down.
PICK: Wisconsin (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points
NC State @ Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., ACCN
The Wolfpack defense has allowed 30 points in the last three games, and only once has it allowed more than 21 in an ACC game.
If they can beat Clemson and nearly pull an upset of Louisville, who’s headed to the ACC title game, they are certainly capable of going to Blacksburg and winning against a Hokies team that's been up and down this season.
PICK: NC State (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
No. 7 Texas @ Iowa State, 8 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app
Iowa State did a really good job of confusing Quinn Ewers last year and nearly pulled the upset in Austin. The young Cyclones have grown up throughout the season, and Texas has had trouble finishing off games, but the Texas defense will be up for the task this week.
Expect everyone to be just a bit more locked in with a berth in the Big 12 title game at stake. The team knows it has to raise its level as RB Jonathon Brooks is out for the year.
PICK: Texas (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
Cincinnati @ West Virginia, 2:30 p.m., BIG 12/ESPN+
Cincinnati finally broke its seven-game losing streak last week, which shows me the team hasn't quit on the season despite four one-score losses.
That’s a great sign for Scott Satterfield’s bunch. WVU has a chance to win eight games in a season in which not much was expected from the squad. But as the year has gone on, the defense has worn down some — outside of blowing out an awful BYU team. Feels like too many points here, with these two teams pretty evenly matched.
PICK: Cincinnati (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON ML
Virginia +155
Rutgers +895
Illinois +135
Washington +120
Stanford +215
Temple +230
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BEAR BYTES
Now it's time to have some fun with my "Bear Bytes."
These little "bytes," as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.
Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:
Since 2021, there have been nine games in which an AP top-10 team has been favored by a field goal or less against an unranked team. Those nine teams went 2-7 against the spread (ATS) and 3-6 outright. Florida State came back to beat Clemson 31-24 earlier this year as a 1-point favorite. Louisville currently ranges from a pick' em to a 1-point favorite at Miami.
No. 21 Kansas State @ No. 25 Kansas
This is the first time since 1995 that Kansas and Kansas State meet with each team entering at least four games over .500. That year, 6-1 K-State beat 7-0 Kansas 41-7.
No. 6 Oregon @ Arizona State
Since 2013, there have been five times a ranked Oregon team has gone to Arizona. Four times Oregon left as a loser, three times as a double-digit favorite. That includes 2019 when No. 6, 9-1 Oregon lost at 5-5 ASU 31-28 as a 13.5-point favorite. The Ducks did blow out Arizona 49-27 in Tucson last year.
This is the first meeting between two Mountain West teams 8-2 or better since 2018, when 10-2 Fresno State beat 10-2 Boise State 19-16 in the MWC Championship Game.
No. 5 Washington @ No. 11 Oregon State
Since 1978, there have been 11 instances of a top-five team as an underdog away from home against a team with at least two losses. Those 11 teams went 2-9. Six of the nine losses came by at least 14 points. The last such instance came in 2010 when 11-0 — and eventual national champion — Auburn beat 9-2 Alabama 28-27 as a 4-point ‘dog in Tuscaloosa. Washington is currently a 1.5-point ’dog at Oregon State.
Since the start of 2021, Oregon State is 17-1 at home, covering all but one game. In Pac-12 games, the Beavers are 11-1 straight up (SU) and a perfect 12-0 ATS. The lone on-the-field loss was a 17-14 loss to USC last season.
This is the first time since 2017 Arizona has been favored over a ranked team and the first time since 2014 Arizona has been favored in a ranked matchup.
Iowa’s last four games have seen 21, 22, 17 and 22 total points. Five straight and 12 of Iowa’s last 15 games have gone Under, despite just two games in that stretch seeing a total of 40 points.
No. 24 Tulane @ Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman is 14-4-1 ATS as an underdog against ranked opponents. That includes four outright wins in four games as an AAC head coach at Houston in 2015-16.
Minnesota @ No. 2 Ohio State
Ohio State has failed to cover the week prior to Michigan in eight of the last nine instances.
No. 20 North Carolina @ Clemson
Clemson would finish with a losing record in ACC play for the first time since 2004 if the Tigers are upset by UNC.
Top 10 Dominance
Top 10 teams this season, when favored by double-digits, are 72-2 straight-up. The two losses were both by ACC teams — Clemson losing to Duke and North Carolina losing to Georgia Tech. Will we get a CFP-altering upset over the next three weeks?
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.