2023 College Football odds: TCU, Florida State to cover, other Week 1 picks

Week 1 of the college football season is finally here!

Watching and wagering on football, beginning Thursday and ending Sunday night, is a glorious way to spend Labor Day weekend. 

Here are my three favorite wagers for the days ahead. 

Let's dive in!

Florida at No. 14 Utah (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Utah’s starting quarterback, Cam Rising, isn't going to play. The announcement for this won't come out until the last minute or even at all, so Florida has to expect Rising to play. To make it worse for the Utes, their preferred option, Brandon Rose, injured his knee two weeks ago and won't be available either. So Utah is rolling with its third option in Bryson Barnes, plus a wildcat-type package for Nate Johnson. 

Obviously, none of this injury news is good for Utah’s offensive operation against Florida. The Utes will run the football, play-action pass and generally design an offense around helping their quarterback prevent mistakes. Given the team's limitations, punting and letting their outstanding defense work is the ideal plan for this Week 1 game. 

Florida is starting Graham Mertz at quarterback, a former five-star prospect who spent four seasons at Wisconsin, starting for nearly three underwhelming seasons. He completed just under 60% of his passes while throwing for 38 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. A new home with the Gators might rejuvenate his career, but I’m not expecting much in the Salt Lake City altitude. The Utes defense is legit and will be ready and willing to stop the Florida offense. The Utes defense is also aware of its outsized role in having to win this game, with the offense not being at 100 percent. 

I like the Under in this contest.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined 

 Colorado at No. 17 TCU (Saturday, noon ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)

There has never been an experiment in college football like the 2023 Colorado Buffaloes team. Deion Sanders was hired as the Buffs coach in early December and went to work on the roster. Nearly 70 new players will put on a white Colorado uniform at TCU this weekend. The Buffaloes have 41 of 44 players in their two-deep, taking their first snap for Colorado. There’s so much unknown, and most often, in these situations, you have to wager against that team. 

We do know that quarterback Shedeur Sanders and all-purpose star Travis Hunter are explosive athletes capable of making plays, but who else can be counted on? I’m terribly worried about the team's trench play, which seems to be an under-discussed point for how important it is.  

TCU is reloading after a surprise CFP title game berth, but the health of its defense is intact. TCU returns 70% of its defensive production from last season, and with the 3-3-5 defense, I would expect Colorado’s offensive line to struggle blocking in the run game and preventing Sanders from getting hit. 

TCU is replacing Max Duggan at quarterback, a few offensive linemen and receiving weapons. Like last season, the Horned Frogs hit the portal hard for production and believe they are set on offense.  

Colorado might be good at some point this season — it just won’t be in Week 1 against TCU. 

PICK: TCU (-20.5) to win by more than 20.5 points

No. 5 LSU at No. 8 Florida State (Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

These two national powers meet again in Week 1 after a thrilling one-point victory for FSU over LSU to start the 2022 season. I’m on the Seminoles to run this one back with a slightly better quarterback and more depth on the defensive line. 

Florida State has one of the deepest defensive lines in the country, and I’m not sure LSU’s offensive line can be stout enough to stop the rush when it matters most. LSU’s quarterback Jayden Daniels is close to taking that next step into superstar status, but I still have questions about that leap occurring on Sunday night. Can he do enough from the pocket against this defensive line to win the game? I feel confident he can make plays with his legs, and he did cut down on his turnovers last season, but I’m just not totally sold on him yet. 

Florida State returns Jordan Travis at quarterback, a Heisman finalist from last year who I believe has a chance to win this year's award. Just like Daniels, he needs to play more consistently at the position, but he does have help with his outstanding crew of offensive weapons. The offensive line is just decent, but it will benefit from LSU’s best interior defensive tackle being suspended for this game. LSU is replacing a portion of its secondary with transfers, and I give a slight advantage to the Florida State offense here.  

I’m taking Florida State to cover and win this game.  

PICK: Florida State (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.