2023 College Football odds: How to bet USC-Oregon, other Week 11 picks
The second round of College Football Playoff rankings are out as we approach Week 11 of the season.
Eight teams control their destinies and we've yet to have a major change at the top after another weekend when the top teams won their games against ranked teams.
Georgia and Texas won at home without covering while Alabama and Washington took care of business while covering the spread.
RELATED: Arizona paying off for bettors, great against spread
Will that trend continue this weekend? I have some thoughts.
Let's dive into my picks for Saturday's Week 11 games, including two Pac-12 matchups and one contest I have my eyes on in the Big Ten — all on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
USC @ No. 6 Oregon (10:30 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)
Oregon is going to destroy USC. I feel comfortable stating that, and I know that if the Ducks don't, I will get embarrassed for writing this.
Even when things don’t go exactly right, like the first quarter of the Cal game last weekend, Oregon still manages to win big.
The Ducks' offense ranks first in points per drive and success rate, second in pressures allowed and third on third down. Bo Nix completes 78% of passes and that efficiency is not stopping against the Trojans.
On the other side is USC’s embarrassing defense. Even with a defensive coordinator change, I do not see things changing against this Oregon team. The Trojans' defense allowed a staggering 199 yards before contact to Washington running back Dillon Johnson.
USC’s run defense ranks 117th in success rate. Oregon has the most yards per rush in the country. The Trojans' pass defense isn’t any better, ranking 115th in points per drive. The argument that USC is going to simplify things on defense doesn’t change the fact they are small and the Ducks' offensive line will be able to move them out of the way for long gains.
The only way the Trojans can keep this game close is if USC's offense scores into the 40s, and I do not see that happening. Oregon’s defense ranks 13th in points per drive and 29th in third down success rate. The defensive line is big, physical and violent, and those guys match up well against USC.
Yes, Caleb Williams can make those special plays and will make some on Saturday, but the Ducks will have a plan to limit those. It is worth noting that USC played two defenses equal to Oregon. The Trojans scored 20 points against Notre Dame and 26 offensive points against Utah.
PICK: Oregon (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
PICK: Oregon team total Over 44.5 points scored
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No 18. Utah @ No. 5 Washington (3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Well, there’s always a first for everything. After taking Utah games to go under the point total nearly every week of writing this column, I’m taking the Utes and Huskies to go over 53.5 points in this game.
This game is about Washington’s offense being able to score against a Utah defense that I don’t think is built best to stop this offense.
Despite the Huskies recent rushing success against USC, they are a pass-first team, and I don’t think the Utes' secondary is equipped to slow them down enough. Their passing attack has slowed down this season when quarterback Michael Penix gets pressured from inside out, and Utah’s best pass rushers are on the edges. That's a matchup that favors Washington’s offensive tackles. I think Washington will score in the 30s.
Then there's Utah's offense. That unit has struggled since it has been navigating injuries. However, the Utes have shown a bit of a spark after their bye week, scoring 34, 34 and 55 points in three of their four games. Washington’s defense is a huge liability. The Huskies rank 96th on third down, 95th in havoc rate and 133rd in passing down sack rate.
They also rank 124th in rushing success rate defense and 121st in tackle success rate. It seems that Utah’s offense should be able to move the ball and score points. The more Utah scores, the more Washington will need to keep its foot on the accelerator.
Give me the Over.
PICK: Over 53.5 points scored by both teams combined
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No. 3 Michigan @ No. 10 Penn State (noon ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)
This is the first game all season in which the Wolverines are playing a team with a pulse, and I’m going to wager on Michigan starting slow.
The Wolverines are undoubtedly an outstanding operation. Big Blue ranks third in offensive points per drive and first on defense. However, Michigan hasn't played an offense ranked better than 53rd in efficiency.
Penn State ranks 10th in points per drive on offense and third in points per drive on defense, so on paper, the Nittany Lions match up with UM.
This game is at Penn State, and I cannot stress this enough — Michigan has played weak teams and hasn’t come close to playing in this environment. The Nittany Lions have played Ohio State and Iowa, and both teams are better than any Michigan has played.
There are concerns about Penn State’s inability to generate explosive plays against the Michigan defense. Still, that could be equally true of the Wolverines facing a real defense for the first time this season.
This is why I believe a Penn State first half wager is in play. Both teams will have a physical start to the game as they figure each other out before the talent of Michigan wins out. Give me Penn State +3.5 for the first half.
PICK: Penn State +3.5 1st half
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.