2023 College Football odds: How to bet Colorado State-Colorado, other Week 3 picks

It's onto Week 3 of the college football season! 

Last week, I went 2-for-3 on my predictions, with Colorado and Oregon both covering and winning outright. 

I'm going into this week feeling good about the best bets I have for you.

Let's dive into my picks for Week 3!

All times ET Saturday

Colorado State at No 18 Colorado (10pm, ESPN)

This is a play on a situation and has less to do with the opponents. 

Colorado is coming off two straight Big Noon Kickoff contests against major Power 5 brands. TCU won a playoff game last season and Nebraska is Colorado's hated rival. Both of those games were victories for the Buffs, the latter of which is coming in a blowout. 

This week sees lowly Colorado State coming into town for a night game before the Buffs head to Eugene to play Oregon, followed by hosting USC the following weekend. It’s the perfect spot for a slight letdown. 

Colorado State entered this season with high hopes for a quick turnover in Jay Norvell’s second season. It added nearly 50 new players to a team that desperately needed an injection of life on offense. In its first game against Washington State, that offense did not arrive until the fourth quarter, but once it started having successful plays, things looked more sustainable. 

Colorado State’s defense was outstanding in 2022 but had to replace quite a few starters and struggled against Washington State as the game progressed. However, the Rams had a rare Week 2 bye and hopefully used that time to shore up some of the issues on that side of the ball.

I believe they will have some trick plays and be fired up early in this game. I can’t wager a full game on the Rams because Colorado is just too good, but it’s a perfect letdown spot for CU, and CSU can take advantage for a half.

PICK: Colorado State +13 in the first half

San Diego State at Oregon State (3:30pm, FS1) 

Oregon State is going to smash San Diego State, and this was one of the first wagers I made for this week. 

Oregon State’s offense is finally whole with new quarterback and Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei under center. The Beavers are not asking him to be the whole offense, but when he has thrown the ball, they’ve been money. He’s 28-of-38 for 346 yards with 11 adjusted air yards per attempt. The Beavers' offense is powered by its outstanding offensive line and run game. 

While San Diego State’s defense is its best quality, it hasn't shown the ability to remain stout all game long. The Aztecs allowed 254 yards to the Bruins on the ground and now face the Beavers' fourth-ranked rushing offense. 

The reason I’m so high on the Beavers in this matchup is their defense against the Aztecs offense. The Aztecs' offense is painful to watch. It scored 20 against Ohio and only 10 against UCLA. And there’s nothing there to provide hope. Quarterback Jalen Mayden is completing just under 60% of passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. The rushing attack is barely average. 

The Oregon State defense is ranked 24th after two weekends of ball. It plays a sound style of defense and does not allow explosive plays. I just don’t see how SDSU moves the ball. 

This game is going to end up 42-10. The Beavers cover with ease.

PICK: Oregon State (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points

Hawaii at Oregon (8pm, Pac 12 Network)

Oregon won a clunker this past weekend at Texas Tech. It had 14 penalties, gave up some explosive plays on defense and its offense played a C+ game. I could see the Ducks refreshed and ready for action this weekend against Hawaii before pulling all their starters. 

This Hawaii football team is not a good one, losing both its games against FBS opponents while only beating Albany 31-20. Hawaii is ranked 104th on offense and 120th on defense. 

Oregon is going to be up 42-7 at the half. This one doesn’t need more analysis.  

PICK: Oregon -23.5 in the first half

Fresno State at Arizona State (10:30pm, FS1) 

Fresno State is an average football team that has two wins this season, including a win on the road at Purdue. Yes, it struggled to beat Eastern Washington last weekend, but that is reasonable after a big road win and a trip to the Arizona desert looming ahead. 

Fresno State is breaking in some transfers on offense, including quarterback Mikey Keene, who is completing 65% of his passes through two games. The Fresno State defense has been bad, especially when opposing teams have scoring opportunities. Well, that might not be such a concern against Arizona State. 

Arizona State has 24 points against Southern Utah and then 15 against Oklahoma State. Arizona State is playing 18-year-old Jaden Rashada and predictably, it’s been up and down. The Sun Devil offense is 107th in yards per drive and 110th in points per drive. First-year head coach Kenny Dillingham is also breaking in a bunch of freshmen and other transfers, and they’ve just generally struggled through two games. Its defense has been slightly better, but it has not faced an offense like the Bulldogs.  

I like the Bulldogs to win and cover.  

PICK: Fresno State (-3) to win by more than 3 points