2023 College Football odds: Best early Power 5 conference futures bets

We're almost two months away from the first snap of the college football season and my juices are flowing for some action. 

So I'm taking a look at some win totals and a conference title pick from my beloved Pac-12.

Will Georgia continue its dominance or fall short of glory in 2023? What about the Texas Longhorns? Could this be the year they get over 10 wins in the regular season for the first time since 2009?

To hold us over until the season starts, here are my favorite futures wagers for every Power 5 conference.

Utah to win Pac-12 Championship

What has to happen for the Utes to get the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers? They won the Pac-12 Conference championship two consecutive years, taking down Oregon in 2021 and USC in 2022. They weren't the favorite in either of those years to win the conference but prevailed anyway. 

Utah wins because the team plays physically in the trenches, but more importantly, the Utes win with defense. In a conference loaded with offensive talent, having the best defense to tag along with the offense will win every year. And once again, they should have the best defense in the conference this season. 

On paper, Utah keeps improving overall in roster talent, and that is continuing to fuel success. For years, the squad won with players who were still developing. Essentially, they got it done with athletes who did not have high recruiting rankings. That is no longer the case.

I would imagine part of the lack of respect for the Utes is their quarterback situation, which is fluid at the moment. Cam Rising, the heartbeat of the offense, tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. While the football program believes he will play in Week 1 against Florida, I have my doubts he will be ready. But his playing status against Florida, Baylor or Weber State does not matter for this discussion. Those are not conference games. 

Rising needs to be ready by the end of September, which is nearly 10 months post-injury. That is a more doable timeline for recovery. There’s also a recent example where Utah started slow but won the conference anyway. In 2021, the Utes lost to BYU and San Diego State in nonconference games before winning the Pac-12.

PICK: Utah (+500, bet $10 to win $60 total) to win Pac-12

Texas Under 9.5 wins

Texas has not won more than nine games in the regular season since 2009, so fading the Longhorns each year has been profitable. They're coming off an eight-win season, which arguably could have been better if they had a healthy quarterback. However, when Quinn Ewers was in the lineup, he was just OK. After returning from an injury he suffered against Alabama, he threw for more than 197 yards only once in the regular season. 

Texas relied on its rushing attack with Bijan Robinson, who was just drafted No. 8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons, so his replacement will not be as good. There’s a fair argument to be made that Ewers will improve in Year 2 as a starter or be replaced by Arch Manning — the true freshman who's the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. A 10-win team rarely has question marks at quarterback before the season begins.

Let’s look at Texas' schedule. The Horns have road games at Alabama, Baylor and TCU, plus the annual game in Dallas against Oklahoma. If they go 2-2 in those road games, they cannot lose another game and get over 9.5 wins. Texas tends to have a stinker or two a season, and I’m going to wager on that happening this year. Sarkisian & Co. go 9-3 at best. Give me the Under.

PICK: Texas (+102, bet $10 to win $20.20 total) Under 9.5 wins

Penn State Over 9.5 wins

Building off a 10-win regular season in 2022, the Nittany Lions will get into double-digit wins again while threatening to win the conference in 2023. 

Drew Allar takes over at quarterback, and the Penn State coaching staff finally has a dynamic athlete to run the offense. Allar was a five-star recruit in 2022 and saw limited action last season. 

The Nittany Lions have the best-left tackle in the country (Olu Fashanu) and plenty of weapons for their new QB. Their defense was outstanding last season, only allowing 18.2 points per game. State did lose some secondary pieces to the NFL but still has enough players on the roster to fill those roles. 

This is a loaded squad with confidence in their quarterback. If they can split Ohio State and Michigan, Penn State will get over 9.5 wins.

PICK: Penn State (-138, bet $10 to win $17.25 total) Over 9.5 wins

Miami Over 7.5 wins

I watched Mario Cristobal coach for four seasons at Oregon, and his Hurricanes are going to follow the same path as Cristobal’s Ducks. 

In Cristobal’s first season in Eugene, the Ducks went 8-4 with a blue-chip roster and a young Justin Herbert. The next season, Oregon went 10-2 in the regular season and won a Pac-12 championship. Cristobal notched 10 wins again in 2021 before heading to Miami. 

Last season, his Hurricanes struggled and got just five wins in 12 games. It was not the season anyone expected, but Miami had injury and roster concerns. Now, Cristobal has turned over the roster and his two coordinators. We know he can identify talent and will win in the trenches this season like he did at Oregon. 

The Hurricane schedule features road trips to North Carolina and Florida and a home game against Clemson, but otherwise, it’s manageable. I’m taking them to win at least eight games.

PICK: Miami (+138, bet $10 to win $23.80 total) Over 7.5 wins

Georgia Over 11.5 wins

Yes, I’m wagering on Georgia finishing the regular season 12-0 for the third season in a row. When you combine UGA's talent, coaching and pedigree with its schedule, you will see this wager is the only way to bet on the team's win total. 

The Dawgs are once again the most talented team in the country, even with all the roster losses to the NFL Draft. They return one of the best offensive lines in the country — a talented offensive skill player core built around future first-round pick Brock Bowers, the best tight end in the country. Georgia continues to reload on defense, sporting a two-deep of only blue-chip players. I have no concern with the Bulldogs' performance being near the top of the country again this season.

If you want a good chuckle, go look at Georgia’s schedule for this upcoming season and find me the game where Georgia is going to be less than a 10-point favorite. You can’t find it. Maybe the Dawgs lose to Florida in the annual rivalry game against the Gators. Otherwise, there is none. Georgia has away games against conference foes like Auburn, and the Tigers have a new coach. Then the Dawgs face the mighty Vanderbilt Commodores and Georgia Tech, a team they beat last season by three touchdowns. 

The Bulldogs do travel to Knoxville late in the season, which will be their toughest game of the regular season. I do not see Georgia losing a game this regular season with their talent and schedule.

PICK: Georgia (+116, bet $10 to win $21.60 total) Over 11.5 wins

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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