13 teams that can win the 2016 College Football Playoff
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers will meet in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday, capping off what’s been an incredible season. But we’re already looking ahead to the next season. We have a feeling that fans of every other team are, too.
Last February, we put together a list of 13 teams that could win the national championship. Three of those teams — Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State — reached this season's College Football Playoff. Of course, two are in the title game.
Now it's time to look ahead and tab 13 teams that could win it all next season. Unfortunately, given the tier system in college football regarding talent, the field is never wide open. Season over season, the same programs, more or less, are capable of putting together title contenders. In some sense, college football is more predictable than many of the other popular sports in our country.
Here are the 13 teams that have the best chance to raise the trophy next January.
SEC: Tennessee
Are the Vols back? That’s one of the more popular topics in college football the past week after Tennessee blew out Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who put together a fairly solid season, throwing for 2,291 yards, 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions, returns for his senior season. Sophomore stud running back Jalen Hurd is back, too. In fact, the Vols should only lose a handful of starters — combined offense and defense — before the 2016 campaign.
The 2015 season, while an improvement on 2014, was defined by what-if scenarios. The Vols seemingly beat every team that they were supposed to (save Arkansas), but lost a number of big matchups. Oklahoma stormed back to knock off UT in overtime, Florida scored two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter to eke out a win, and Alabama kept its playoff hopes alive with a late score against the Vols.
In 2016, the SEC East appears to be Tennessee’s for the taking. Florida has quarterback issues. Georgia and South Carolina are in transition. If the Vols can get through unscathed, they might just have enough to take down the SEC West champ. That would likely put them in the College Football Playoff.
SEC: LSU
Heading into their Nov. 7 matchup with Alabama, the Tigers were the No. 2 team in the College Football Playoff rankings. Three losses in a row later, LSU reportedly considered firing coach Les Miles. How’s that for a quick turnaround?
LSU, with Brandon Harris at quarterback, will still likely have issues in its passing game. But with Leonard Fournette in the backfield, the Tigers are still capable of winning the SEC West. Fournette, who was considered the Heisman Trophy favorite for much of the season, finished with 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns. He’s arguably the most talented player in the nation — at any position.
On top of returning talent — which LSU has a great deal of — the program has the top-rated recruiting class for 2016, according to Rivals.
At this point, it’s clear that whichever team wins the SEC will have a shot at the playoff. LSU, if it can get past Alabama, could be that team in 2016.
SEC: Alabama
The Crimson Tide's inclusion on this list is a no-brainer. It would be shocking if they weren’t. Why? Alabama, with a win on Monday, would be the national champions in four of the last seven seasons. The Tide are right there every single year.
Yes, Jake Coker is a graduating senior. Yes, Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry is likely headed to the NFL. But no, it won’t matter. Alabama, which has stockpiled talent since the day Nick Saban stepped on campus, has plenty of players waiting to get their shots. According to Rivals, Alabama finished with the nation’s top recruiting class in four consecutive seasons — 2011-14.
Simply put, Alabama is going to compete for the national title every year until Saban either retires or leaves. The Tide are one of four SEC teams on our list.
SEC: Ole Miss
The Rebels, who has beaten Alabama two years in a row, actually came incredibly close to winning the SEC West this season. If Arkansas didn’t pull off a miraculous 53-52 win in overtime, Ole Miss would have represented the division in the conference title game against Florida.
Ole Miss’ big Sugar Bowl win over Oklahoma State, which came without the Nkemdiche brothers, has fans feeling pretty optimistic about 2016. Chad Kelly, after a 4,000-yard season, appears to be the real deal. He won’t have Laquon Treadwell to throw to next season, but the Rebels still have plenty of talent on offense.
Since Hugh Freeze’s hiring ahead of the 2012 season, Ole Miss has improved its record by one win each year, reaching 10 wins this past season. Perhaps in 2016, the Rebels will finally get over the hump and win the SEC West.
ACC: Clemson
The Tigers are undefeated heading into the Monday's title game, running through the majority the regular season with ease before winning the ACC title against North Carolina and crushing Oklahoma 37-17 in the Orange Bowl.
Regardless of what happens vs. Alabama, Clemson is built to make another run in 2016.
Everything Clemson has done during its undefeated streak has relied upon quarterback Deshaun Watson, who will return for his junior season. This gives the Tigers a shot against anybody on next season’s schedule. Finishing third in Heisman voting this year, Watson is one of college football’s premiere players. Being surrounded by a plethora of talent only adds to the advantage.
It's still unclear whether running back Wayne Gallman will return, but the Tigers will have a trio of talented receivers in Artavis Scott, Hunter Renfrow and Deon Cain. Watson will have fun delivering the ball to this combination of speed and skill.
The Tigers also have Dabo Swinney, one of the hottest coaches in college football. Like him or not, there is no denying that Swinney has found a way to motivate his players to block everything out and focus on their goals. This cannot be undervalued.
Look out for the Tigers in 2016.
ACC: Florida State
The Seminoles are coming off a rebuilding year in which they won 10 games and earned a spot in one of the New Year’s Six Bowls, and things are looking even better in 2016.
Losing only defensive back Jalen Ramsey and kicker Roberto Aguayo to the NFL, the ‘Noles are locked and loaded to make a run next season with the only question coming at quarterback. Regardless, FSU will be undoubtedly more talented at the position than it was in 2015, with redshirt freshman Deondre Francois and true freshman Malik Henry battling Sean Maguire for the starting job. The best player will win the job, because somebody has to get the ball to all the talented playmakers on the roster. The offensive line will be much more experienced, too. Coming into 2015, only one lineman — left tackle Roderick Johnson – had started any games. This will make a world of a difference.
FSU returns running back Dalvin Cook, one of the most electric players in the game, and he will again be the centerpiece of an offense that does not lose a single player to the NFL. Cook rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns this past season, even after missing (practically) two games due to an ankle injury. Along with Cook, the ‘Noles bring back multiple four and five-star wide receivers in Travis Rudolph, George Campbell and company.
Also coming back will be a defense that only loses one player to the draft. The Seminoles put together the No. 16 defense in the country last season, with underclassmen all over the field. It will be a fun squad to watch in 2016.
Don’t sleep on the Seminoles.
Big 12: Oklahoma
The Sooners had an impressive, somewhat surprising run in 2015, capturing the Big 12 title and earning one of four spots in the College Football Playoff against Clemson. It was all about first-year starting quarterback Baker Mayfield for the Sooners, and their leader will return in 2016.
While a few key players will depart for the NFL, including wide receiver Sterling Shepard, the Sooners are primed to make another run next season.
This has everything to do with the return of Mayfield under center. The Sooners landed a good one when he decided to transfer from Texas Tech, and it didn’t take him long to make an impact once cleared to play. Mayfield threw for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns, taking college football by storm. Nobody saw it coming, and now people are looking forward to seeing what’s in store for him and the Sooners in 2016.
Oklahoma also returns a pair of freaks at the running back position in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, who will strike fear in Big 12 defenders throughout the season. Perine has rushed for 1,300-plus yards in his first two since arriving on campus, and Sooners fans can expect the same during his junior campaign.
The Sooners also return a stout defense, one that dominated the line of scrimmage throughout the Big 12 title run. This will be important when Oklahoma faces some potent offenses from the opening weekend until the last.
With Mayfield returning, keep an eye on the Sooners.
Big 12: Baylor
The Bears' recent campaign was plagued with injuries, leading to three losses in the final five games of the season, but coach Art Briles and staff were able to scheme in the Russell Athletic Bowl to overcome those injuries and defeat North Carolina 49-38. Baylor rushed for a staggering 645 yards in that game.
For this reason, the Bears have as good a chance as anybody to make a run, despite losing a number of players to graduation and the NFL Draft.
While star wide receiver Corey Coleman declared for the draft, wideouts KD Cannon and Chris Platt will be back, creating plenty of opportunity for quarterback Seth Russell. The QB will be eager to take the field after missing the final six games of the season to injury. He still managed to throw for 2,104 yards and 29 TDs.
Running back Shock Linwood will also return. After going down with an injury during the regular-season finale and missing the bowl game, Linwood is another player who will be eager to come out strong in 2016. Even without those final two games, Linwood rushed for 1,329 yards and 10 TDs on the season.
Baylor’s offense strikes fear in its opponents, and for good reason. Watch out in 2016.
Big Ten: Ohio State
As long as Urban Meyer is in Columbus, expect the Buckeyes to be in the national title conversation. In four years with OSU, Meyer is a stunning 50-4 with a national championship under his belt. At this point, a 10-2 season would be absolutely stunning, even in an improving Big Ten East.
Next season will be somewhat of a rebuilding effort as many of the players who were key to the 2014 championship, including a group of nine juniors led by Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliott and Cardale Jones, are headed to the NFL Draft. While the Buckeyes didn’t repeat, losing just one game — by a time-expiring field goal to Michigan State — they managed to grind out another 12-1 season, despite some pretty lackluster performances throughout the year.
However, even with the player exodus to the NFL, there’s a decent chance that next season’s Buckeyes put it all together earlier. As much fun as the rampant quarterback speculation was before the season, it's hard to argue that it was a good thing for the team, which dealt with that position battle well into the fall, when J.T. Barrett finally wrestled the starting job away from Jones. With a full offseason of preparation as the starter, expect big things from Barrett.
Barrett won’t be able to do it alone, but Ohio State is still stacked with talent. Since 2013, the Buckeyes' recruiting classes have ranked second, third, seventh and are second for 2016, according to 247Sports’ national composite team rankings. Few teams even come close to that consistent recruiting dominance. It may take Ohio State a little while to figure out life without Zeke, Braxton Miller, Bosa and others, but the Buckeyes have the coach and they have the QB. They will be a threat to win a title once again.
Big Ten: Michigan
When Jim Harbaugh took over at his alma mater, most believed he would turn Michigan around. Few probably thought Michigan would go 10-3 and absolutely throttle an SEC division champion in a bowl game. Next season may be a bit early to call for Michigan to go to the College Football Playoff and win a championship, especially with some uncertainty at quarterback following the graduation of Jake Rudock, but if there’s a coach that can elevate a team that way, Harbaugh’s a good candidate.
Michigan’s quick turnaround began at the defensive end. The Wolverines pitched three consecutive shutouts from Sept. 26 to Oct. 10 against BYU, Maryland and Northwestern — two of whom were ranked. Michigan held eight of 13 opponents under 20 points. While defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin is taking over the Maryland program, UM should not see much of a step back. Harbaugh is replacing him with Boston College coordinator Don Brown, whose Eagles had the top defense in the country. He will have far more talent to play with in Ann Arbor.
Michigan’s offense wasn’t the flashiest thing, but it was far more effective than in the last few years under Brady Hoke and was plenty good enough to win with the defense dominating. While Rudock put up solid numbers and managed the offense well, he isn’t an irreplaceable talent by any means. Harbaugh’s staff will have plenty of interesting talents to choose from, with Houston transfer John O’Korn, redshirt freshman Alex Malzone, blue-chip true freshman Brandon Peters and a pair of players with a bit of experience — Shane Morris and Wilton Speight — returning. We have faith that the Wolverines will piece together a workable offense in 2016.
Independent: Notre Dame
Last year, Ohio State’s quarterback controversy dominated offseason story lines. This year, Notre Dame will likely fill that role. Malik Zaire came in with a ton of excitement and hype and played well for the Fighting Irish before going down with injury against Virginia. In stepped DeShone Kizer, and the offense barely skipped a beat. Zaire and Kizer are both expected to return to South Bend, and based on performance to this point, it is a real toss-up as to who will be the starter.
Even with big-time playmakers like C.J. Prosise and Will Fuller leaving for the NFL Draft, if Notre Dame avoids falling into the trap of inconsistent quarterback play that Ohio State saw this season, there is plenty of talent on the roster to develop a top offense. Tarean Folston, who came into 2015 as the starting running back before an injury in the season opener, should be back, along with freshman back Josh Adams, who looked ridiculously explosive down the stretch this season.
The Irish won’t have an easy road to a championship — they never do — but with their schedule they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff committee. Texas, Michigan State, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech and at USC are all tough-but-winnable games, while the midseason game against Stanford could prove vital for both teams’ playoff hopes.
Pac-12: Stanford
Speaking of the Cardinal, after flying under the radar following an underwhelming 2014, Stanford re-emerged as the class of the Pac-12 this season. With the return of Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey, no one will doubt Stanford next season. Of course, avoiding a bizarre Week 1 loss is also important.
Kevin Hogan graduates after his long tenure as Stanford quarterback, but with McCaffrey back, it is hard to worry much about the Cardinal offense. This year’s team was designed to get McCaffrey the ball as much as possible — he registered 382 of the team’s 823 total touches, good for 46.4-percent. That number shouldn’t change much next year, and based on the metrics, Stanford should be very good because of it.
McCaffrey’s monster year helped cover up a young Stanford defense that took a sizable step back from where it usually is in the Harbaugh/Shaw era. In 2014, Stanford ranked second in scoring defense and third in total defense. This season, those numbers dropped to 32nd and 43rd, per CFBStats. The Cardinal should get better on that side of the ball in 2016, which is a scary notion, when combined with McCaffrey, who may be even better next season, if that is possible. Good luck with that, Pac-12 teams.
Pac-12: Oregon
As college football fans, we were robbed a bit of seeing what a full year of Oregon with Vernon Adams would have been like. Adams’ path to Eugene was fraught with academic issues, and he didn’t make it to campus until mid-August. Adams missed three games and only threw seven passes in a blowout loss to Utah. He was hobbled in the Ducks’ loss at Michigan State and left the crazy bowl loss to TCU early, which helped spark the Horned Frogs’ wild comeback. Oregon won every other game, and Adams was absolutely ridiculous in those games.
Most were aware of Adams heading into the season because of his amazing career at Eastern Washington. Dakota Prukop doesn’t come in with the same name recognition, but he was coveted by other huge programs like Alabama, TCU and Texas. Prukop is already on campus, which gives him an eight-month jump on where Adams was. If Prukop is close to as good and stays healthy, Oregon could be very good on offense once again. With Royce Freeman in the backfield and a slew of talented receivers, there's no reason to worry about the Ducks on that front.
The major concern for Oregon is on defense. Don Pellum’s unit this season was pretty atrocious. Oregon ranked 116th in scoring offense, surrendering 37.5 points per game. Only Indiana, Texas Tech and Kansas were worse among Power Five teams. Pellum has been demoted, and pretty much any defensive coordinator worth his salt should be able to improve. Even an average defense, paired with a normal, super-productive Oregon offense, should make the Ducks a title contender.
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