Why this is the year Northwestern (finally!) makes the NCAA Tournament
EVANSTON, Ill. — I think I am losing my mind.
That, or someone put something funny in those brownies.
Because here I am, about to make a preseason prediction that’s as crazy as it comes. And the craziest part is that I’m not trying for the hot take, and I’m not making dozens of wild predictions in the hope that one of them comes true — the craziest part is that I really, really believe it.
(Deep breath.) Here it is:
In the 2015-16 college basketball season, Northwestern will make its first-ever NCAA Tournament.
(Exhale.)
I believe it. I really do. Northwestern is the only longtime power conference school that has played in zero of the first 77 NCAA Tournaments. The streak will end before it reaches 78.
Hear me out.
Let’s start with last season, which was Coach K disciple Chris Collins’ second as Northwestern’s head coach. The Wildcats went 15-17 overall, with a 6-12 Big Ten record that included a 10-game losing streak and ended with them in 10th place.
Not exactly numbers that inspire hope.
Until you look deeper.
Six straight defeats during that 10-game losing streak were by a combined 25 points. In all, Northwestern lost five Big Ten games by five or fewer points. If the Wildcats had gotten lucky and won all five of those games, they would have gone 11-7 in conference play and made the tournament.
Now look at this year’s team.
Seven-footer Alex Olah and off-guard Tre Demps are returning seniors. Sophomore point guard Bryant McIntosh, whom Collins said he “fed to the wolves” by handing him the ball his freshman year, will have that year of experience under his belt. KenPom.com has Northwestern ranked 51st in the country in its preseason rankings.
Add to that a summer basketball team trip to Spain that included 10 practices and puts Northwestern ahead of the game.
“It got us into season mode,” Demps told me. “When we were starting up this fall, we were already in the rhythm of competing.”
So yes: I believe that, come Selection Sunday, there will be a great scene going on in Evanston.
Of course, what I believe matters absolutely zilch. All that matters is what these players believe — or, more to the point, whether these players believe.
I floated my “Northwestern gonna make the tourney” argument to another Big Ten coach. He told me that the program lacks any history of winning, and that sort of stuff feeds on itself. He said this program didn’t have a culture of belief, and you could tell from all those heartbreaking losses last year.
They have the talent. The Wildcats just need to believe.
“I dealt with this a little bit at Duke,” Collins said before a recent practice. “Kids always trying to play to the pressure of the program’s success. Ours right now is the opposite. It’s unfair to these guys to play for 77 years (of missing the tournament). If they feel that pressure we have no chance.”
“Part of it is belief,” Collins continued. “I was at a place where there was so much winning that when you were in those games, you believed you were supposed to win those. I think the mentality for us is you’re trying to get to that level. Instead of, ‘Man, we’re supposed to win this game,’ it is, ‘I hope we can.’ You play not to lose. But if you look at a lot of great teams, you have to go through that heartache to get where you want to go.”
There are so many examples. The Bulls had to get through the Pistons before they believed in themselves. Before that, the Pistons had to get through the Celtics.
Or even a different example, closer to home: This year’s Chicago Cubs played with a looseness that seemed out of place in the cursed Wrigley Field. They were so young they weren’t playing for history. They believed in themselves and shut out the noise.
No, the Cubs didn’t make the World Series. But they were in the mix.
And that’s all Collins wants.
“There’s a power in belief and confidence,” he said. “It’s great for people to say, ‘Are they a sleeper team? Are they going to make the tournament?’ But if you get caught up in all that stuff, you’re not going to win. That’s going to be our challenge.”
You may believe I’m losing my mind. You may point out that I myself am one of those Chicago Cubs fans who always says, “Wait till next year.” You may find the fact that my hope always springs eternal with teams like this to be juvenile.
But I believe. I really do.
Follow Reid Forgrave on Twitter @reidforgrave or email him at ReidForgrave@gmail.com.