In a wide-open college basketball field, who will rise to No. 1?

By Andy Katz and John Fanta
Updated Jan 4, 2023 2:21 pm EST

The college basketball season has been as unpredictable as it has been entertaining.

That was crystal clear in the past week when two teams that appeared ready to rampage their way into March — UConn and Purdue — both endured stunning upsets. And even that development came on the heels of less-than-impressive stretches for teams like Creighton and Indiana.

Given all of this, the fact that there are no undefeated teams remaining, and the field appears to be more wide-open than ever, it's time to ask: Who is the best team in the nation?

We break it down.

Who is your top dog, and why?

Andy Katz: Arizona. Just watch the Wildcats. They are something special. No team can match the depth, length and athleticism of the bigs, and the combo of Kerr Kriisa and Courtney Ramey gives the Wildcats toughness and defense on the perimeter. Arizona has had one blip — at Utah, following the Maui Invitational victory over a then-healthy Creighton. The Wildcats have wins over Tennessee at home and Indiana in Las Vegas, and have looked the part of a title contender in every game this season.

John Fanta: While I have zero objections to Dr. Katz’s opinion, and even have Arizona at No. 1 in our weekly power rankings, I’ll play the contrarian card and take a different avenue.

Kansas looks like a team capable of repeating as national champions. Bill Self has reloaded and adapted with a smaller, versatile roster that’s been powered by national player of the year candidate Jalen Wilson. Dajuan Harris has posted 91 assists to just 28 turnovers, serving as the steady point guard for KU yet again. Freshman Gradey Dick plays beyond his years, while KJ Adams’ production level has resulted in Self being able to play small ball that causes all sorts of matchup problems for opposing defenses. The Jayhawks remain the standard in a Big 12 that occupies 10 of the top 40 spots in KenPom.

Who is your second pick waiting in the wings?

John: Tennessee. The Volunteers own the best defense in college basketball and showed it Tuesday night, beating a previously 11-3 Mississippi State team, 87-53. But it’s not surprising to see Tennessee defending. What makes this Rick Barnes team different is that it has more of an offensive flow than previous teams in Knoxville. Senior guard Santiago Vescovi opens up a dimension on the perimeter, averaging 18.0 points per game over his last three contests and shooting 12-of-20 from beyond the arc in that span. Zakai Zeigler looks like the SEC Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner. Five-star wing Julian Phillips is one of four averaging in double-figures as well, and Olivier Nkamhoua provides real toughness in the paint. The Vols need Josiah Jordan-James back in their rotation, but overall, they have a great makeup.

Andy: Alabama. I’m starting to really fall for the Tide. Freshmen Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney are two of the best in the country. This team has proven it can handle any opponent, already winning at Houston, taking down then No. 1 North Carolina in four OTs in Portland and opening SEC play with a win at Mississippi State. There is enough of a veteran presence to balance the rookies.

Who is your third pick — a top team that has yet to put it all together? 

Andy: Gonzaga. The Zags are starting to put all the pieces together. Drew Timme is playing like a national player of the year. The point guard position is going to be by committee, but the Zags have turned a corner with their overall perimeter play. They took a few lumps early but the win over Alabama in Birmingham should be a strong indicator that they are going to be in this for the long run. 

John: UCLA. The Bruins have won 10 in a row, so the counterargument could be that they’ve put a lot together. That said, early losses to Illinois and Baylor coupled with just a one-point win over a 6-9 Washington State team lends itself to believing Mick Cronin’s team still has certain things to figure out. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell have been as advertised while Jaylen Clark has taken a leap. Will five-star freshman Amari Bailey get healthy from a foot injury that’s sidelined him in recent games? The other key piece is another freshman, Adem Bona, who’s tasked with holding things down in the frontcourt. That said, I think the Bruins could very well make a second Final Four in three seasons.

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Who is your fourth pick — a dark horse that can be on top in the end? 

John: So, a dark horse team in my opinion is a group that is currently ranked outside the top 15 that possesses high-end talent capable of competing and beating the best in the sport on a given day. With that logic in mind … I’m taking Duke as my dark horse!

Yes, I can feel all of your eyes rolling as you read the screen. That being said, Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils rank in the top 30 in KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Kyle Filipowski has been everything the coaching staff could have hoped for and more, as the freshman has averaged 13.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. The key player to Duke’s ceiling is Dariq Whitehead on the wing. If he gets going as more of a lead scoring option and Jeremy Roach can be consistent, yes, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Blue Devils go on a run, as they did winning the Phil Knight Legacy in November.

Andy: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a legit threat to compete for the title. Freshmen Brice Sensabaugh and Bruce Thornton are two of the best at their respective positions. Zed Key and Justice Sueing are proving to be tough matchups. This team played a strong slate in non-conference but has grown up and continues to improve. This team has as high a ceiling as any in the country. 

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John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.