Vermont, Princeton, Iona could surprise in conference tourneys
By Andy Katz
FOX Sports College Basketball Analyst
Every season, the pressure on the one-bid conference favorites is immense.
They could have an impressive season full of dominant performances, but lose once in a three-day event, and the goal of March Madness vanishes.
A year ago, Oral Roberts, Abilene Christian and North Texas made their respective marks on the game, leaving Ohio State, Texas and Purdue in their wake.
A number of the one-bid conference tournaments begin later this week, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Only two teams — Murray State and North Texas — can sleep easy even if they fall before the final.
The Racers finished 28-2 overall and 18-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference. They obliterated rival Belmont by 33 in the final week of the regular season. At this point, Murray State is playing for a No. 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, not a bubble spot.
The Mean Green are 22-4 and 15-1 in Conference USA with two games remaining, against UTSA and UTEP. Win out, and it would be extremely difficult for anyone to leave North Texas out of the Dance.
Murray State and North Texas also have the goods to advance this season. Murray State has a stud in KJ Williams, who is averaging 18.2 points and 8.5 rebounds. The Racers have traditionally been a hot spot for guards, with Ja Morant their most recent NBA product. But the 6-foot-10 Williams will be next.
Also, guard Tevin Brown is hardly an afterthought, with 16.4 points per game. No high-major team is going to want to see the Racers in its bracket.
Meanwhile, North Texas has do-everything guard Tylor Perry, who will cause fits for opponents.
Those two teams could and should get into the NCAA Tournament on their own merit, but there are a number of other squads that, assuming they win their conference tournament and the automatic NCAA berth that comes with it, could win a game or two in the Big Dance.
Here are the teams that could surprise in the conference tourneys — and beyond.
Vermont: The Catamounts ran away with the America East title behind Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. This could be John Becker’s best overall squad in Burlington.
Princeton: If the Tigers can win the Ivy League playoff — a big if, especially with Yale lurking — they are more than capable of winning at least a game. This Mitch Henderson squad can put points on the board, slicing and dicing up opponents.
Iona: The Gaels have won 24 games so far this season. They will have a battle to get through the MAAC tournament, and if they do, Rick Pitino will have this squad prepared.
MAC champ: Take your pick: Toledo, Ohio and Kent State are all possible upset picks. Kent State has been the hottest team of late. But the conference tournament should be extremely difficult to get through.
The Valley champ: Loyola-Chicago, one of the more experienced teams potentially in the field, could get in as an at-large without winning Arch Madness. But the Ramblers' season-ending loss at Northern Iowa dropped them to the fourth seed in the conference tournament. Northern Iowa, Loyola, Drake and Missouri State would all be unwelcome NCAA first-round opponents.
Colgate: The Raiders, winners of 12 straight, likely still need to get past Navy and/or BU. But this squad is more than capable of pulling off a surprise.
Chattanooga: The Mocs have won 24 games and are penciled in as high as a 12-seed. They scream 12-5 upset pick in your bracket. Malachi Smith averages 20 PPG and could be a first-round star.
South Dakota State: Coaches change, but the Jackrabbits' ability to win the Summit title and be a thorn in the first round doesn't. They have won 18 in a row and 27 games overall. This team can make shots, plays to the final possession and will make every opponent earn a W.
New Mexico State: The Aggies are a traditional upset pick. They have had their moments and their chances, such as in 2019, when they nearly upended Auburn in the first round. NMSU already knocked off tournament-bound Davidson and one-time tournament hopeful Washington State. The well-traveled Teddy Allen is a bucket-getter who will show no fear against a Power 5 program.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on FOX Sports and Big Ten Network platforms, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.