USC has a map to beating Gonzaga, but it won't be easy

Gonzaga entered the NCAA Tournament with zero losses, all the hype and the No. 1 overall seed.

When college basketball fans filled out their brackets and wondered if there were any teams out there that could stop the Bulldog buzzsaw, it was like considering a far-off dream – maybe someone, someday will eventually pull it off, like a Baylor or Michigan or Illinois.

But now things look a little bit more interesting, courtesy of the USC Trojans.

USC, an unheralded 6-seed out of the previously unheralded Pac-12 Conference, trounced conference rival Oregon on Sunday, setting up an Elite Eight matchup with Gonzaga on Tuesday.

The Trojans’ easy victory over Oregon came on the heels of an even easier victory over 3-seed Kansas in the round of 32. In three tournament wins, USC has beaten its opponents by an average score of 80-58. Gonzaga’s average tournament score, by comparison, is 89-64.

Suddenly, March Madness observers are wondering if USC might be the team to hand Gonzaga its first loss of the season.

The Trojans certainly believe — and understandably so.

"We believe we can beat anybody," USC’s Isaiah White said after dropping 22 points on the Ducks.

But can they get it done against Gonzaga, an experienced and skilled squad looking to become the nation’s first undefeated team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers?

The case for USC generally goes something like this:

First, they are led by a one-and-done super-talent in center Evan Mobley, a player with a combination of skill and size that the Zags have not faced this season.

As Kenny Smith argued Sunday on TBS’ postgame show, an NBA-caliber talent can carry a team in a big game.

"Give me 30 [points] and 20 [rebounds], and get me to the next round," Smith said of what USC should expect from Mobley.

Secondly, the Trojans have length and athleticism across the board. This is helpful on offense and perhaps even more so on the defensive end. With Mobley roaming the middle with his 7-foot-4 wingspan, the guards feel comfortable extending their zone defense and pressuring on the perimeter.

This was especially effective Sunday, as they held a normally hot Ducks team to 37.7% shooting from the field and 23.8% from 3-point range.

"[USC’s] 2–3 zone has been particularly tough to solve of late, with their guards often extending up higher to take away passing lanes and the corner men willing to sell out on shooters," Jeremy Woo wrote for Sports Illustrated. "They’re willing to move their personnel around based on matchups, which can be tough to diagnose in real-time."

A third thing that could fall in USC’s favor is 3-point shooting.

This was not an area of dominance for the Trojans this season, as they ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in total 3-pointers made (210) and fifth in 3-point percentage (36.3%). By contrast, the Zags made 221 3-pointers this season at a 37.3% clip.

But the Trojans have really focused on the long ball in the tournament, torching Kansas for 11 3-pointers and drilling 10 against Oregon.

"When we can shoot the ball at this level, we're tough to beat," USC coach Andy Enfield said after Sunday’s game. "Some of our losses this year, we've been very inconsistent from the perimeter. And we're shooting the ball well as a team right now."

Finally, the Trojans could use pace of play to give Gonzaga fits. This isn’t an inherent advantage, but it could be an edge if USC is able to impose a slower tempo.

The Zags love to play fast. According to KenPom.com, Gonzaga ranks sixth in the nation in adjusted tempo, which measures possessions per 40 minutes (adjusted for opponent). USC ranks 234th.

If the Trojans can keep the game close and keep the pace slow, that could play into their hands.

Given all of this, is it realistic to think USC can knock off the NCAA Tournament’s prohibitive favorite? While it’s true the Trojans present a unique challenge to Gonzaga, that cuts both ways.

Charles Barkley addressed that in responding to Smith on TBS’ Sunday postgame show. Asked if USC could beat Gonzaga, Barkley thought for a bit before responding:

"I really want to say yes. But the answer is a hard no. [Gonzaga] is one of the best offensive teams I’ve ever seen as far as movement – ball movement and body movement. I don’t see anybody beating them."

Gonzaga’s offense is indeed fierce, featuring an interesting mix of experienced players such as Corey Kispert, Andrew Nembhard and Drew Timme, plus a freshman NBA prospect in Jalen Suggs. They share the ball like a well-oiled machine and, according to KenPom.com, are the most efficient offense in the nation.

How do you stop a team like that?

"They’ve just got to pick their poison," Kispert said of the opposing squad in a recent interview. "Whatever they choose, we can exploit it. … It’s almost like a what-are-we-gonna-do type of feeling, and that doesn’t get old."

It’s a daunting task for USC, but the Trojans seem to have a map for success: Use their talent and athleticism, make 3s, keep the pace slow, and keep the score close. In a win-or-go-home situation, you never know what can happen.

Gonzaga hasn’t played in a lot of close games this season and arguably hasn’t played a remotely as talented foe since beating Virginia the day after Christmas. That said, the Bulldogs have met all comers and are sitting at 29-0.

The Trojans are on a roll, but so are the Zags. Beating them will be easier said than done. Either way, Tuesday’s matchup won’t be one to miss.