UNC Basketball: Breaking Down the ACC Race

Jan 26, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams reacts in the second half. The Tar Heels defeated the Hokies 91-72 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

ACC play is ramping up, as we are almost at the halfway point of the conference slate. The top-tier teams have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack in the league.

Currently, North Carolina is in sole possession of first place, sitting at 7-1. Right behind them is a slew of other teams in the conference, lead by Notre Dame.

Winning the ACC is all about how many road wins you can bank through conference play. But taking care of your business at home is just as good.

North Carolina is currently undefeated at home in ACC play, as is Florida State.

In the next few slides, we will be breaking down who are the contenders in the ACC.

Jan 25, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton (left) talks with guard Terance Mann (14) in the second half of their game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at McCamish Pavilion. The Yellow Jackets won 78-56. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State (6-2 ACC)

Florida State burst onto the scene following their big win at Virginia. FSU began the season 18-1, but have lost two of their last four. Both were road games at UNC and at Georgia Tech.

The loss to Carolina could be a crushing blow to them late in ACC play. Because of that, UNC now owns the head-to-head against FSU for seeding in the ACC Tournament.

Florida State should have a great shot at winning the ACC, because their favorable schedule.

FSU has only two more games against KenPom top 25 teams, Notre Dame, and Duke. The Noles have already ran through their ACC gauntlet. They have already faced off against UNC, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

But while their schedule may seem favorable, they have shown themselves that no game is easy.

On Wednesday, FSU went to Georgia Tech and lost by 22! No matter who they play, if the game is on the road, FSU will have to bring it every time.

Led by Jonathan Isaac, this is Leonard Hamilton’s best FSU team in a while. It is not a stretch to think this team could be a Final Four team.

Given their favorable schedule, I would give them a 20% chance to win the ACC.

Jan 24, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Deng Adel (22) is fouled as he shoots against Pittsburgh Panthers forward Sheldon Jeter (21) during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. The Cardinals won 106-51. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville (5-3 ACC)

Despite having an up and down season, Louisville has avoided the catastrophic upset this year.

The Cardinals worst loss is against a ranked Notre Dame team, on the road. And despite being two games out of first place, they have to feel they are in a good spot right now.

If you take away UNC and Virginia from their schedule, Louisville’s toughest opponent left is Notre Dame at home. If you offered 13-5 to the Cardinals at the beginning of the season, I am sure they would have taken it.

Louisville has shown they can hang with any team in the conference. And the regular season title could very well come down to their game against UNC, which is in Chapel Hill.

They have missed Quentin Snider in the last few games, but have stayed afloat without him. Once they get him back, they should be primed for a run at UNC down the homestretch.

I will give Louisville a 15% chance to win the ACC title.

Jan 16, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams with guard Kenny Williams (24) and forwards Theo Pinson (1) and Justin Jackson (44) after his 800th career win. The Tar Heels defeated Syracuse Orange 85-68 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina (7-1 ACC)

Imagine how this conversation could be going if the Heels had not lost to Georgia Tech.

The Heels have shown flashes of being a national title contender at times. But at times, Carolina has also rolled out some headscratchers.

Nonetheless, here they are, standing alone atop the ACC standings. Coach Williams has done an incredible job keeping UNC on top of the mountain, despite recruiting struggles.

Unlike Florida State, the Heels have played the weaker part of their ACC schedule to date. FSU is the toughest team they have faced so far. Six of the last ten games will be against currently ranked teams, including Duke twice.

Even with the hardest part of the schedule coming up, Carolina has already built a one game lead. And wins over Virginia, and Louisville down the homestretch could go a long way towards helping their cause.

This team is considered by many to be the favorite in the ACC with a healthy roster.

Continuing to avoid the upsets, and taking care of a few ranked teams would put the Heels in a good place in the end.

The tough homestretch gives them a 25% chance to win the ACC.

Jan 18, 2017; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward VJ Beachem (3) reacts during the second half of the game against the Florida State Seminoles at the Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame (6-2 ACC)

Notre Dame has been a pleasant surprise in ACC play this year. After losing a couple of stars in Pat Connaugton, and Zach Auguste, the Irish seem to be just fine.

This year, the Irish are led by a trio of great players, Matt Farrell, VJ Beachem, and Bonzie Colson. This Notre Dame team already has a win over Louisville, but their two losses are to Virginia, and FSU.

That does not help the Irish out if it comes down to a tie breaker situation. They already have those two losses to top contenders in the conference. If the Irish are going to win the conference, they will need help from others around them.

It is truly incredible how well Coach Mike Brey has done in the last few years. Brey is in his 17th season at the helm in South Bend, and is really now beginning to build an ACC contender. He has finished in the top five of the conference in two straight years, and looks primed to do it again.

Notre Dame will continue to rely on the rebounding prowess of Bonzie Colson, who is averaging 10 per game. On offense, they will go to both Colson, and Beachem, both of which are averaging 14+ points per game.

Based off their early losses, I will give Notre Dame at 15% chance to win the conference.

Jan 8, 2017; Charlottesville, VA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard London Perrantes (32) and Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett talk in the second half during a game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers defeated the Demon Deacons 79-62. Mandatory Credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

Virginia (6-2 ACC)

A year after losing the ACC player of the year, Tony Bennett still has his guys atop the ACC.

UVA has actually lost their best player in two straight seasons, Malcolm Brogdon, and Justin Anderson.

Tony Bennett has proved that he can coach with the best, and build programs with the best. This years Cavaliers team is led by London Perrantes.

Perrantes who seems to have been at Virginia forever, is averaging 12 points per game.

The Cavaliers seem to be in a good position to make a run at the ACC crown. They have two losses now, but they still play UNC twice, Duke once, and Louisville once. If they could manage to play well in that stretch, they could easily come away with the ACC championship.

This UVA team is no different from ones in past years. They try to slow the pace down on offense, and make the game low scoring.

According to KenPom, their average length of possession is 20.6 seconds, which ranks 351st among D1 teams.

There is no doubt this strategy is effective though. They continue to use this year after year, and they still remain atop the ACC. Having the same point guard over the last few years goes a long way in helping that offense flourish.

I will give Virginia a 20% chance to win the conference.

Jan 23, 2017; Durham, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Terry Henderson (3) blocks the shot of Duke Blue Devils guard Luke Kennard (5) in the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

The Field

The field consists of teams that are more than two games out of first place. While there is work to be done for these teams, there is plenty of time, and talent in these teams.

This section is headlined by Duke, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Miami, and surprisingly Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech has been a surprise in the ACC this season, gathering wins over UNC, and Florida State.

While Duke is off to a slow start, there is still enough talent on that roster to make a run at the ACC title. And with their schedule, they have plenty of opportunities to get wins over good teams.

In order for somebody in the field to win the ACC, they have to play good themselves, and also get help from the previous five teams mentioned on the list.

Sorry Carolina fans, but if anybody in this field has a shot at winning the ACC, it is going to be Duke.

I will give the field a 5% chance to win the ACC, based on their slow start.