SEC preview: Malik Monk should lead Kentucky to another league title
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the SEC, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
The Big Picture
No surprise here at the top: Kentucky, led by an outstanding stable of freshman prospects, is our projected No. 1 team. And there’s a familiar face in the second spot too, as Florida makes its return to the SEC’s elite in Year 2 of the Mike White era. As with previous years of SEC basketball, there may be only four NCAA tournament qualifiers from a league of 14 teams. SEC basketball fever isn’t quite here yet, but there’s hope for the future.
Player of the Year: Malik Monk, Kentucky
The Wildcats’ third-highest-rated recruit (and the nation’s ninth), according to the Ratings Services Consensus Index, projects as the SEC’s best player overall thanks in part to an expected sizable role in Kentucky’s offense. Some of the explosive backcourt playmaker’s toughest competition for the award will come from a pair of his classmates in Lexington, but as the central offensive piece on the league’s best team—and a top-flight national title contender—Monk gets the nod for the hardware.
Newcomer of the Year: Monk, Kentucky
So . . . how about that Malik Monk? Not only does he project as the conference’s best player—he’s also new, setting him up for a second superlative. Aside from John Calipari’s other superfrosh, Bam Adebayo and De’Aaron Fox, Monk’s challengers for this title will likely be the league’s newly eligible transfers, chiefly projected Alabama leading scorer Nick King (a forward who transferred from Memphis) or Ole Miss guards Deandre Burnett (Miami) and Cullen Neal (New Mexico), who project as the Rebels’ top two scorers.
All-Conference Team & Sixth Man
PG: J.J. Frazier, Georgia
SG: Malik Monk, Kentucky
PF: Bam Adebayo, Kentucky
PF: Tyler Davis, Texas A&M
PF: Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
6th man: PG: De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Kentucky | 16–2 | 13–5 |
| 2 | Florida | 11–7 | 9–9 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | 11–7 | 13–5 |
| 4 | Vanderbilt | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| 5 | Georgia | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| 8 | Mississippi State | 9–9 | 7–11 |
| 9 | South Carolina | 8–10 | 11–7 |
| 10 | Auburn | 8–10 | 5–13 |
| 11 | Alabama | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 13 | LSU | 7–11 | 11–7 |
| 14 | Missouri | 4–14 | 3–15 |
The Skinny on Each Team
1. Kentucky (16–2)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Malik Monk | Fr | SG | 16.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 117.1 | 25% | 77% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Fr | PG | 12.9 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 117.6 | 21% | 77% |
| Bam Adebayo | Fr | C | 12.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 116.3 | 24% | 63% |
| Derek Willis | Sr | PF | 11.1 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 125.6 | 16% | 68% |
| Isaiah Briscoe | So | PG | 10.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 109.1 | 20% | 80% |
| Wenyen Gabriel | Fr | PF | 7.2 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 110.3 | 20% | 45% |
| Isaac Humphries | So | C | 5.0 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 109.9 | 15% | 50% |
2. Florida (11–7)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Kevaughn Allen | So | SG | 12.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 116.1 | 20% | 72% |
| John Egbunu | Jr | C | 11.6 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 112.5 | 22% | 63% |
| Devin Robinson | Jr | SF | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 121.7 | 19% | 60% |
| Canyon Barry | Sr | SG | 10.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 104.7 | 23% | 52% |
| Kasey Hill | Sr | PG | 9.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 101.6 | 24% | 56% |
| Justin Leon | Sr | PF | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 115.1 | 17% | 55% |
| Chris Chiozza | Jr | PG | 7.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 108.9 | 20% | 59% |
3. Texas A&M (11–7)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Tyler Davis | So | C | 14.3 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 114.4 | 24% | 70% |
| Admon Gilder | So | PG | 13.1 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 113.1 | 19% | 83% |
| D.J. Hogg | So | SF/PF | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 20% | 73% |
| Tonny Trocha-Morelos | Jr | C | 10.9 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 106.1 | 21% | 68% |
| Eric Vila | Fr | SF | 7.6 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 95.8 | 19% | 58% |
| J.C. Hampton | Sr | PG/SG | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 99.8 | 21% | 40% |
| Robert Williams | Fr | PF | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 105.1 | 17% | 38% |
4. Vanderbilt (10–8)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Matthew Fisher-Davis | Jr | SF | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 120.4 | 17% | 78% |
| Jeff Roberson | Jr | SF | 12.3 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 122.8 | 19% | 77% |
| Riley LaChance | Jr | CG | 12.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 108.1 | 21% | 84% |
| Luke Kornet | Sr | PF | 10.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 109.5 | 22% | 65% |
| Nolan Cressler | Sr | SG | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 24% | 44% |
| Camron Justice | So | SG | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 103.9 | 19% | 47% |
| Joe Toye | So | SF | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 104.0 | 21% | 40% |
5. Georgia (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| J.J. Frazier | Sr | PG | 16.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 117.0 | 25% | 82% |
| Yante Maten | Jr | PF/C | 16.2 | 8.0 | 0.9 | 106.0 | 27% | 76% |
| Tyree Crump | Fr | SG | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 101.4 | 19% | 69% |
| Derek Ogbeide | So | PF | 6.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 96.4 | 20% | 50% |
| Jordan Harris | Fr | SG | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 100.3 | 18% | 43% |
| Juwan Parker | Jr | SG | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 100.3 | 18% | 43% |
| Mike Edwards | So | PF | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 91.7 | 15% | 41% |
6. Arkansas (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Dusty Hannahs | Sr | SG | 16.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 118.3 | 24% | 68% |
| Moses Kingsley | Sr | PF | 16.4 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 115.2 | 26% | 74% |
| Anton Beard | Jr | PG | 8.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 108.7 | 19% | 60% |
| Jaylen Barford | Jr | PG | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 103.8 | 19% | 56% |
| Daryl Macon | Jr | SG | 7.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 103.8 | 19% | 52% |
| Dustin Thomas | Jr | PF | 6.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 105.8 | 20% | 48% |
| Arlando Cook | Jr | PF | 6.6 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 103.8 | 19% | 45% |
7. Ole Miss (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Deandre Burnett | Jr | SG | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 104.4 | 23% | 72% |
| Cullen Neal | Sr | PG | 11.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 98.9 | 23% | 78% |
| Sebastian Saiz | Sr | C | 11.5 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 114.8 | 21% | 68% |
| Rasheed Brooks | Sr | SG | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 105.0 | 18% | 71% |
| Marcanvis Hymon | Jr | SF | 8.6 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 113.1 | 19% | 59% |
| Justas Furmanavicius | Jr | SF | 7.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 101.5 | 20% | 52% |
| Nate Morris | Fr | PF | 4.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 99.4 | 18% | 34% |
8. Mississippi State (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | So | SG | 13.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 111.7 | 23% | 73% |
| Tyson Carter | Fr | PG | 9.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 102.6 | 19% | 73% |
| I.J. Ready | Sr | PG | 9.6 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 108.9 | 20% | 73% |
| Mario Kegler | Fr | SF | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 105.2 | 20% | 56% |
| Schnider Herard | Fr | C | 7.4 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 103.1 | 19% | 51% |
| Abdul Ado | Fr | C | 6.2 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 102.6 | 19% | 43% |
| Xavian Stapleton | So | SG | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 104.8 | 21% | 35% |
9. South Carolina (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Sindarius Thornwell | Sr | PG/SG | 14.3 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 111.3 | 22% | 84% |
| Duane Notice | Sr | SG | 12.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 117.7 | 19% | 76% |
| P.J. Dozier | So | SG | 10.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 95.8 | 25% | 65% |
| Chris Silva | So | PF | 10.2 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 107.5 | 22% | 62% |
| Ran Tut | Jr | PF | 7.0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 102.6 | 19% | 48% |
| Sedee Keita | Fr | PF | 6.5 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 103.8 | 18% | 48% |
| Hassani Gravett | So | PG | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 100.4 | 19% | 34% |
10. Auburn (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Bryce Brown | So | SG | 10.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 105.9 | 20% | 60% |
| Mustapha Heron | Fr | SG | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 109.3 | 22% | 55% |
| Danjel Purifoy | Fr | SF | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 102.4 | 19% | 58% |
| Ronnie Johnson | Sr | PG | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 105.9 | 23% | 50% |
| T.J. Dunans | Sr | SG | 8.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 100.1 | 23% | 50% |
| T.J. Lang | Jr | SG | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 116.5 | 14% | 62% |
| Horace Spencer | So | PF | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 98.1 | 22% | 58% |
11. Alabama (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Nick King | Jr | SF | 10.6 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 105.4 | 24% | 64% |
| Shannon Hale | Sr | PF | 9.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 98.0 | 27% | 48% |
| Dazon Ingram | So | PG | 9.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 97.8 | 21% | 76% |
| Riley Norris | Jr | SF | 8.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 106.1 | 17% | 70% |
| Corban Collins | Sr | PG | 8.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 105.3 | 19% | 60% |
| Ar'mond Davis | Jr | SG | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 98.6 | 20% | 45% |
| Jimmie Taylor | Sr | PF | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 101.3 | 18% | 42% |
12. Tennessee (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Detrick Mostella | Jr | SG | 12.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 101.3 | 24% | 68% |
| Robert Hubbs III | Sr | SG | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 113.7 | 21% | 70% |
| Admiral Schofield | So | SF | 11.6 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 111.8 | 20% | 70% |
| Lamonte Turner | Fr | PG | 9.2 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 103.5 | 18% | 72% |
| Lew Evans | Sr | PF | 8.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 102.0 | 23% | 54% |
| Shembari Phillips | So | SG | 7.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 99.5 | 20% | 50% |
| Kwe Parker | Fr | SG | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 101.6 | 19% | 40% |
13. LSU (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Antonio Blakeney | So | SG | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 115.4 | 21% | 76% |
| Craig Victor II | Jr | PF | 12.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 105.5 | 24% | 67% |
| Brandon Sampson | So | SG | 9.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 100.7 | 20% | 67% |
| Branden Jenkins | So | SG | 8.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 96.7 | 21% | 63% |
| Duop Reath | So | PF | 7.4 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 96.7 | 21% | 48% |
| Jalyn Patterson | Jr | PG | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 110.6 | 14% | 57% |
| Aaron Epps | Jr | PF | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 102.9 | 19% | 33% |
14. Missouri (4–14)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Kevin Puryear | So | PF | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 101.3 | 24% | 74% |
| K.J. Walton | So | SG | 11.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 105.8 | 23% | 71% |
| Terrence Phillips | So | PG | 10.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 97.2 | 22% | 80% |
| Jordan Geist | So | PG/SG | 8.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 95.1 | 21% | 60% |
| Jordan Barnett | Jr | SF | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 96.0 | 20% | 34% |
| Mitchell Smith | Fr | PF | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 99.5 | 15% | 51% |
| Cullen VanLeer | So | SG | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 97.2 | 17% | 48% |