NCAA Tournament odds: Picks for every second-round game
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament is in the books, meaning it's already time to place your bets on the round of 32!
Throughout all of March Madness, we’re betting every single game in some way, shape or form. You read that right: Every. Single. Game. Whether it's against the spread (ATS), on the moneyline or picking an over/under, we have you covered.
First round upsets in the NCAA Tournament are great because brackets get busted, and everyone loves Cinderella. The problem? You look to the next round and wonder just how compelling a few of the matchups might end up being. Fortunately, every game can be an edge-of-your-seat thrill ride when you have a little pizza money invested.
So let's get to the second-round picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).
FIRST-ROUND RECORD: 14-17-1
SECOND-ROUND RECORD: 7-10
Sunday's Games
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 4 Illinois (12:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Illinois was lucky to survive UT-Chattanooga after leading for less than one minute in a 54-53 triumph. If they shoot 3-for-17 against Houston from deep — what they did Friday — they’ll lose by 20.
Houston is clearly the better team, but it has had problems with size, losing to Memphis twice. If Kofi Cockburn stays out of foul trouble, he could make life tough for Houston, which isn’t the 3-point team it was last year after losing guard Marcus Sasser to injury in December. Pick: Under 133.5 total points scored by both teams combined (Win)
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Villanova (2:40 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Buckeyes will have to play much better than they did against Loyola to take down Jay Wright’s Wildcats. OSU shot just 1-for-15 on 3-pointers, but Loyola had its worst 3-point shooting night of the season, so it didn’t matter.
OSU got Kyle Young and Zed Key back from injury, and they combined for 11 points and 14 rebounds. Burly forward EJ Liddell was able to score easily inside against Loyola and should have similar success against Villanova. But even if the Wildcats don’t shoot 13-for-28 from 3 like they did against Delaware, they shouldn’t have many problems here. Pick: Villanova (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points (Win)
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke (5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Let’s start with the obvious: Coach K owns Tom Izzo head-to-head, going 12-3. The Blue Devils really only play six guys, but they’re all really good, led by Paolo Banchero (17 and 10 versus Cal State Fullerton). He’s the type of player Davidson didn’t have down the stretch when it struggled to create offense versus the Spartans. Joey Hauser was clutch against the Wildcats with 27 points, but Duke will go on 12-2 runs, and the Spartans don’t have the offense to keep up. Pick: Duke (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points (Win)
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Wisconsin (6:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
The Cyclones are here because freshman Tyrese Hunter had the game of his life against LSU, making seven of 11 3-pointers for a career-high 23 points. Can he do that against Wisconsin? Well, the Badgers nearly lost to Colgate because the Raiders hit 10-of-22 from deep.
Wisconsin star Johnny Davis looked finally healthy from his ankle injury, taking over late against Colgate and finishing with 25 points. Ken Pom has this a 1-point game; the line is heavily shaded to Wisconsin, possibly because the game is being played in Milwaukee. Pick: Wisconsin (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points (Loss)
No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (7:10 p.m. ET, TBS)
Mike Brey’s Irish outlasted Rutgers in double overtime, and then caught a bit of a break; Alabama star point guard Jahvon Quinerly went down in the first half with an injury, and Notre Dame rolled the Tide. Meanwhile, junior guard Cormac Ryan scored a career-high 29 points — he’d only had one 20-point game all season!
The dream run comes to a screening halt against Texas Tech, with its vaunted No. 1 rated defense in the country. Pick: Texas Tech (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points (Loss)
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 2 Auburn (7:45 p.m. ET, truTV)
The underdog Hurricanes shot 1-for-14 on 3s and still managed to beat USC by two. How? They took care of the ball (three turnovers) and forced 18 by USC. If the Auburn guards don’t handle the pressure from guard Charlie Moore and Isaiah Wong, this could get interesting.
Then again, while you don’t want to overreact to Auburn bludgeoning Jacksonville State, Miami is tissue-thin inside, and Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith could own the paint. Pick: Auburn (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points (Loss)
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Purdue (8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)
The Longhorns shot 10 of 19 on 3s to beat Virginia Tech, as every starter scored in double figures. For a team that ranked 243rd in 3-point shooting this season, it was quite the night.
They’ll need another game like that, because they’ll be overwhelmed inside by 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams of Purdue. Purdue’s offense, when it runs through future NBA guard Jaden Ivey, is efficiently explosive. Chris Beard and Matt Painter are friends; this feels like a last possession game, perhaps needing more than 40 minutes. Pick: Over 133.5 total points scored by both teams combined (Win)
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Arizona (9:40 p.m. ET, TBS)
Sneaky dangerous game for the Wildcats, who face a strong TCU defense (15th in efficiency) that swallowed up Seton Hall in a Friday night bloodbath. The Big 12 has played extremely well through two rounds, and two of Arizona’s three losses this season came against Top 15 defenses (Tennessee, UCLA). The Wildcats are young; TCU has an NBA point guard in Mike Miles who could make this interesting. I might be the only gambler in America backing the Frogs. Pick: TCU (+9.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright) (Win)
Saturday's Games
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 8 North Carolina (12:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
The public loves offense, so they’ll look at UNC, which set a record for largest win ever in an 8 versus 9 game (32 points) in a 95-63 drubbing of Marquette.
The Tar Heels are much improved from early in the season, but they run hot and cold — 94 points against Duke this month, but only 59 in a loss to Virginia Tech a week later. When UNC faced strong defenses, they were destroyed by Purdue and Kentucky. Baylor, which could have problems inside, is still an elite defense (13th in efficiency).
If UNC goes bonkers from deep again, the upset is in play. Pick: Baylor (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points (Loss)
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Creighton (2:40 p.m ET, CBS)
This number feels light for a Bluejays team that needed a massive rally from 14 down to beat San Diego State. Creighton was extremely fortunate that the Aztecs shot 10-of-17 from the foul line. Worse yet, Creighton 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner appeared to suffer a significant injury in overtime, and there’s no update on his status.
Down two starters against perhaps the third-best team left in the field? As long as Bill Self’s Jayhawks don’t start thinking the path is clear because Iowa has been bounced, Kansas cruises. Pick: Kansas (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points (Loss)
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 3 Tennessee (5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
The game I’m most looking forward to, because it’ll be a slugfest in the half court. The Vols won’t shoot as well as they did versus Longwood (14-of-24 on 3-pointers). Michigan 7-footer Hunter Dickinson (8-of-9, 21 points vs Colorado State) won’t have a massive size advantage against Uros Plavsic and John Fulkerson of the Vols.
I think Michigan has the talent advantage, but my concern is if Tennessee guard Kennedy Chandler dominates Michigan freshman Frankie Collins, disrupting an already disjointed Michigan offense. Pick: Under 136 total points scored by both teams combined (Loss)
No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 4 Providence (6:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
I’m the guy who is picking against Providence — again.
South Dakota State had multiple chances late but couldn’t pull it off Thursday, as Friars point guard Al Durham had 13 points, 8 rebounds, and six assists. The website Shot Quality determined that given the shots attempted, South Dakota State wins that game 77 percent of the time. Providence, according to KenPom.com, is the luckiest team in America by a large margin. And Richmond has the best player on the floor, point guard Jacob Gilyard. Pick: Richmond (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright (Loss)
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 4 UCLA (7:10 p.m. ET, TBS)
This is a terrifying game for the Bruins, who have to face another opponent that wants to slow the game down. UCLA’s execution late against Akron saved Mick Cronin's team, but what happens when they face an opponent that looks better in the half court and shoots it better at every level (3s, 2s and FTs)? Or maybe the Gaels just ran a tired Hoosiers team out of the gym by 29?
As much as I want to pick the upset, I’m going to avoid picking against the Bruins, a team I have going far in multiple brackets. Pick: Under 126 total points scored by both teams combined (Loss)
No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
Murray State is so bad from the free-throw line (244th) that it’s difficult to bet them here. Their inability to close out San Francisco multiple times, including a woeful 24-for-35 night from the line, nearly resulted in a loss.
The Peacocks, meanwhile, somehow weathered a 30-16 night from Oscar Tshiebwe to outlast Kentucky in a historic upset, shooting better from the field, 3-point line, and foul line versus mighty UK. Lucky night from the 243rd most efficient offense in America? Probably. But give me the Peacocks and the points, and I will sprinkle a little on the moneyline. Pick: Saint Peter’s (+8.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points (or win outright); Saint Peter's to win (+275 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $37.50 total) (Win, Win)
No. 12 New Mexico State vs. No. 4 Arkansas (8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)
The Aggies rode the Teddy Allen show — aka Teddy Buckets — to an upset over UConn Thursday, as he scored 37 points including 13-of-13 from the foul line. Nobody else was in double-digits.
Allen, who previously played at WVU and Nebraska (and went to Wichita State but was kicked off the team before playing a game), will need another heroic performance to top the Razorbacks. The Arkansas backcourt duo of JD Not and Davonte Davis will be too much. Pick: Arkansas (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points (Loss)
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Memphis (9:40 p.m. ET, TBS)
Drew Timme (32 points, 13 rebounds) and Chet Holmgren (19 points, 17 rebounds, 7 blocks) dominated the smurfs on Georgia State, especially when their best big man went down with an injury. It won’t be nearly as easy against future NBA center Jalen Duren and Memphis. If Memphis can hang inside, and if point guard Alex Lomax controls the game, the upset could happen, as the Tigers rank 352nd in turnover percentage.
The public will gravitate toward Memphis and former star Penny Hardaway, but give me the Bulldogs, who should suffocate a below-average Memphis offense. The under is worth a look, too. Pick: Gonzaga (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points (Loss)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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