NCAA Tournament odds: Picks for every first-round game
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 2022 NCAA Tournament is finally here, and the first round offers sports fans a ton of opportunities to make their viewing experience a little ... richer.
Throughout all of March Madness, from the first round until the final championship buzzer, we’re betting every single game in some way, shape or form. Whether it's against the spread (ATS), moneyline or an over/under, we have you covered.
You read that right: Every. Single. Game.
Last year, betting every game of the tournament, I went 36-26 (58 percent). Let’s try to run it back. Now, come get some winners (odds via FOX Bet).
RECORD THROUGH DAY 2: 14-17-1
Friday's Games
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Loyola was one of the first bets I made when I saw the bracket. The Ramblers are poised for another first-round win. They have the strength of an efficient offense (16th in 3-point shooting; 15th in 2s) and, as usual, a formidable defense (22nd in efficiency).
This Ohio State team is reeling due to injuries and has lost four of five, three of those coming against non-tourney teams.
PICK: Loyola-Chicago moneyline (Loss)
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
At the start of February, the Tigers were the No. 1 team in the country, but they suffered three road losses and then were bounced in the first game of their conference tournament. Another concern, the Tigers are a woeful 3-point shooting team, and they’ll see plenty of zone in the tournament.
I like Auburn a lot, but the ugly offense of late has me gravitating toward the total in this one.
PICK: Under 139.5 points scored combined by both teams (Win)
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Montana State (1:45 p.m. ET, TNT)
The best defense in the country belongs to the Red Raiders, but offensively they are terribly inconsistent due to turnovers (20.3 per game) and horrible 3-point shooting (282nd out of 358). That being said, Montana State hasn’t faced a team in the Ken Pom Top 140 this season.
Look for Texas Tech to pull away in the second half.
PICK: Texas Tech -15 (Win)
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Yale (2 p.m. ET, TBS)
Yale is in the dance after an upset of Princeton in the Ivy conference championship. The second-best team all season in the Ivy against a Big Ten team featuring three future NBA players? Seems like a tall order.
When Yale stepped out of the conference, they got pounded by Seton Hall (36 point loss), Auburn (22 point loss), and St. Mary’s (27 point loss).
PICK: Purdue -16.5 (Win)
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Delaware (2:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
Jay Wright has won two titles in the last five tournaments, but this isn’t one of his best teams. The Wildcats won three Big East tournament games by a combined 10 points. While a great free-throw shooting team (first in the country at 82%), their slow pace will let good offensive teams hang around.
If you want to take a flier on Delaware in the first half, go for it, but your best bet is the under.
PICK: Under 134.5 points scored combined by both teams (Loss)
No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Miami (Fla.) (3:10 p.m. ET, truTV)
Classic offense (Miami, 17th) vs defense (USC 49th) matchup, but I give a slight edge to the Trojans, who come in having faced UCLA twice and Arizona once in the last two weeks.
Small concern: It’s a travel nightmare for the Trojans and their body clocks going across the country and playing a game with a midday tip-off.
PICK: USC moneyline (Loss)
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers or Notre Dame (4:15 p.m. ET, TNT)
Alabama has the guards to make a deep run, but they’ve lost three straight games and are a pitiful 3-point shooting team (305th in the country). With wins over Gonzaga and Houston in December, the Tide peaked early. But they’ve got one more run in them.
PICK: Alabama -4 (Loss)
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech (4:30 p.m. ET, TBS)
Fun fact: 11 seeds have a winning record in the first round since 2010. The Hokies will be a far-too-popular pick to win a couple of games, but I’m riding with the public on this one.
The Longhorns’ last six losses were to tourney teams, but their lack of offensive output is troubling. Chris Beard has more talent on his roster than VT’s Mike Young, but give me a nice bounce-back for the Hokies after last year’s tough first-round overtime loss to Florida.
PICK: Virginia Tech -1 (Loss)
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Chattanooga (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
Six 13 seeds have won in the first round in the last five tournaments, including two last year. One of the first bets I made was Chattanooga on the money line, and also with the points. Both have moved my way.
Illinois usually has an advantage with Kofi Cockburn inside, but UTC has 6-foot-9, 250-pound Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa.
PICK: UT Chattanooga +8 (Win)
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Blue Devils cratered defensively down the stretch, and you have to wonder how much of it is having at least four first-round picks possibly thinking about the NBA. Is the burden of Coach K’s retirement too much for this core of three freshmen, a sophomore and a junior?
Either way, they should be able to roll in this game. I'm afraid of the backdoor, so I'll lay the points with the Blue Devils early.
PICK: Duke -11.5 1st half (Loss)
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State (7:20 p.m. ET, TBS)
LSU fired its coach, Will Wade, this week. Don’t think it matters much here, as Iowa State is a struggling team that has lost three in a row. The Cyclones have only one win over an NCAA tourney team (TCU) in the last two months.
I’d also look at the under, as the Cyclones have been held under 55 points four times in the last 10 games.
PICK: LSU -4 (Loss)
No. 1 Arizona vs. vs. No. 16 Wright State (7:27 p.m. ET, truTV)
I’ll be rooting for Peter Kiss and Bryant to prevail in the play-in, so we can have a scenario like last year, where Austin Reaves (now starting for the Lakers!) put on a heroic performance for Oklahoma in a loss to Gonzaga.
PICK: Arizona -21.5 (Loss)
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB (9:20 p.m. ET, TNT)
Jelly Walker, UAB’s diminutive and dynamic point guard, will attempt at least 25 shots. Houston’s defense is relentless, and this could be a "first to 50" wins kind of game.
I like Houston’s potential to make a run in the bracket, but this is a dangerous opener. And the Cougars have just one win over a team in the field (last week’s win over Memphis). The Blazers haven’t lost a game by double digits this season.
PICK: UAB +8 (Loss)
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson (9:40 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Wildcats should have a decided crowd advantage, playing this game just 90 minutes from campus. Davidson is a better shooting team from the field and the line, the only question is who wins the tempo battle. The Wildcats want to play at a snail’s pace; the Spartans are 91st in the country in tempo.
Tom Izzo gets caught looking ahead to Coach K. Give me Davidson!
PICK: Davidson +1 (Push)
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate (9:50 p.m. ET, TBS)
Colgate first half was a winner last year, and I’m going back to the well, even though the Badgers somehow got a home game in Milwaukee on Friday night.
The Badgers are by far the worst No. 3 seed, with the resume of a 5-6 seed. Johnny Davis (if healthy) is a great talent, but Colgate was here last year and played fantastic against a good Arkansas team for 30 minutes.
PICK: Colgate 1st half +4.5 (Win)
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 TCU (9:57 p.m. ET, truTV)
The Horned Frogs will have the best player on the floor in Mike Miles. When you have two Top 30 defenses faces off, two offenses that can’t shoot, and you’re playing the last game of the first round after watching basketball all day, you have to bet the under.
PICK: Under 129.5 points scored combined by both teams (Win)
Thursday's Games
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Michigan’s disappointing season — including five losses in their last nine games — could be erased with a March run, which is entirely possible.
The Wolverines have a significant size advantage here led by All-American Hunter Dickinson, but their point guard Devante Jones will miss the first weekend. Colorado State’s tallest starter is 6-foot-6, and if the Rams aren’t hitting from outside, it could be a long night for a team that doesn’t get many second chances (340th in offensive rebounding).
PICK: Michigan -1 (Win)
No. 4 Providence vs. 13 South Dakota State (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
Is Providence good or lucky?
The fact that the Friars are only favored by 2-points should tell you a lot. They were 12-2 in close games this year but rated just 31st in offensive efficiency and 79th in defense.
Providence is overseeded and must face a South Dakota State squad that hasn’t lost since Dec. 15. The Jack Rabbits are also the best 3-point shooting team in the country; so if they get hot, lookout.
The Friars were a fantastic story all season, but don’t call this an "upset."
PICK: South Dakota State +2 (Loss)
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis (1:45 p.m. ET, TNT)
Memphis is one of the toughest handicaps of the first round because of how different this team has been since star freshman Emoni Bates left the group. The Tigers are 10-2, with seven of those wins by double-digits. And two of those wins came against Houston. Bates is traveling with the team to Portland, but it’s unclear if he’ll play.
Boise is a terrific defensive team (17th in efficiency). So I see a low-scoring game here.
PICK: Under 133.5 points scored combined by both teams (Win)
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Norfolk State (2 p.m. ET, TBS)
The status of Baylor’s leading scorer LJ Cryer is still unknown, which has me sour on Baylor’s long-term prospects. The defending champs also lost in their first conference tournament game to Oklahoma, which historically has been a bad March omen.
But the Spartans are an average shooting team, so there’s no upset cooking here. Lay the points.
PICK: Baylor -22 (Win)
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Longwood (2:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Lancers have won 18 of 19 and have been a covering machine this season (19-9 ATS). And they’re sixth in the country in 3-point shooting. In what will be a slow-paced game, there’s a scenario where the Lancers keep this game reasonably close.
Tennessee’s coach Rick Barnes has struggled ATS in his last 13 NCAA Tournament games (1-11-1). The only cause for concern is that his opponent is from the Big South, and the Vols have smashed two teams from that conference this season by 42 and 40 points.
PICK: Longwood +17.5 (Loss)
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond (3:10 p.m. ET, truTV)
The Hawkeyes are one of the hottest teams in the field and have scored 80 plus points in seven of their last nine games. Richmond won't be able to keep up, even with explosive point guard Jacob Gilyard.
PICK: Iowa -10.5 (Loss)
No.1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Georgia State (4:15 p.m. ET, TNT)
Gonzaga is the favorite to win it all and the top overall seed in the tournament. This means their lines will be inflated all tourney long — just something to keep in mind.
The Panthers struggled in December and January with injuries and COVID-19, but they’ve won 10 straight since being fully healthy. Georgia State is a poor offensive team, so they’ll probably be down 20 plus much of the second half. Gonzaga will play backups for the final five minutes, which means the backdoor will be open.
PICK: Georgia State +23 (Win)
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Marquette (4:30 p.m. ET, TBS)
Good luck finding an edge in all of these 8-9 games. Marquette will try to push tempo; UNC has a significant advantage on the glass and inside with Armando Bacot.
PICK: Under 152.5 points scored combined by both teams (Loss)
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
The Huskies are a dangerous team, given their dominance on the offensive glass. This season, they’ve got wins over 2-seeds Auburn and Villanova.
While they may have problems with transfer Teddy Allen (19.3 ppg) — WAC player of the year — the Huskies will pull this one out.
PICK: UConn -6.5 (Loss)
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
John Calipari’s oldest team in Lexington features five impact transfers, but UK has one glaring weakness: Depth inside. We saw it against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and if NPOY candidate Oscar Tshiebwe is in foul trouble, points will be difficult to come by.
St. Peter’s is anemic offensively, ranking 317th in the country in 2-point shooting percentage, so I can’t pick them to win outright. But because they play such stingy defense (34th in efficiency), I'll take the points.
This season, the Peacocks are 20-9 ATS, fourth in college basketball.
PICK: Saint Peter’s +17.5 (Win)
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Indiana (7:20 p.m. ET, TBS)
Trayce Jackson-Davis was incredible against Wyoming with 29 points, which came on the heels of a 31-point game in the Big Ten semifinal. Can Matthias Tass slow him down?
The turnaround from the Midwest Tuesday night to Portland Thursday afternoon is tough, so that will be something to keep an eye on.
PICK: Indiana +3 (Loss)
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton (7:27 p.m. ET, truTV)
As nice as the run to the Sweet 16 was last year, the Bluejays aren’t nearly as strong this season. It’s a struggle offensively and will undoubtedly be difficult without point guard Ryan Nembhard (wrist injury).
SDSU ranks second in the country defensively.
PICK: San Diego State -2.5 (Loss)
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont (9:20 p.m. ET, TNT)
Arkansas got a huge scare last year in the first half — from Colgate — so you know they’ll be more ready this year.
But, Vermont starts five seniors and has won 22 of 23 — including each conference tournament game by 32 plus points. I love Arkansas' backcourt, but the Hogs lack last year’s frontcourt.
PICK: Vermont +5 (Win)
No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco (9:40 p.m. ET, CBS)
The favorite here has flipped, and there’s some mystery around the health of All-WCC center Yauhen Massaiski (13.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg). Murray State hasn’t lost since Dec. 22.
The side feels like a coin flip, so I'll take the under.
PICK: Under 136 points scored combined by both teams (Loss)
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Akron (9:50 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Bruins snuck up on everyone last year and made a run to the Final 4, but they have a target on their backs this tournament.
The matchup is a brutal opener for UCLA, given the game will be played at a pace that puts the score in the 50s. Ultimately UCLA’s defense will be too much, but if Johnny Juzang struggles, the Bruins could be in trouble.
PICK: Under 127.5 points scored combined by both teams (Win)
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (9:57 p.m. ET, truTV)
Jayhawks can pick the score here. I’m invested in Kansas to win the title, and Texas Southern puts up the resistance of a speed bump. Blowout city.
PICK: Kansas - 22 (Win)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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