NCAA Tournament odds: March Madness first-round betting trends and more
Spring is almost here which means college basketball gamblers everywhere are celebrating the return of March Madness!
In anticipation of this year’s tournament, we culled the data and, in addition to an historical analysis of past champions, discovered a few against the spread (ATS) trends that you should consider before dropping some cash on the opening round. As always, be sure to place your bets at FOX Bet.
When looking at seeds the first trend that stands out is the 5-12 matchup, namely the success of the 12-seed ATS. Per FOX Sports Research, since 1985, the 12-seed is 76-65-3 ATS versus the 5-seed in the first round.
Even more noteworthy, in the past 10 tournaments, the 12-seed is 24-15-1 ATS in these first-round matchups. You read that correctly, they have covered the spread 60% of the time over the past 10. And looking at the past five tournaments, they've gone 12-7-1 ATS.
In short, the 12-seeds are on a hot streak covering the spread in the opening round and there is a reason college basketball fans routinely pick this game as their upset special in the brackets.
The 5-12 matchups this tournament are:
— (5) UConn vs. (12) New Mexico State
New Mexico State last made the NCAA Tournament in 2019 (also as a 12-seed), losing but covering against Auburn in the Round of 64.
UConn lost to Maryland in the Round of 64 last year as 3.5-point favorites
— (5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) Wyoming/Indiana
Saint Mary’s has played in 15 NCAA Tournament games all-time, with 13 of them coming since 1985; in those contests they went 4-9 ATS and 4-9 straight up (SU)
Iowa went 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU in the tournament last year, beating Grand Canyon before losing to Oregon as 5-point favorites (favorites in both games)
Houston went 2-3 ATS and 4-1 SU in the tournament last season, defeating Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State before losing to Baylor as 5-point underdogs in the Final Four
If you think the 12-seed can continue this hot first-round trend, then make sure you place your wagers over at FOX Bet.
Keeping with the ATS theme, there are a couple of other matchups that have historically tilted towards the underdog. Since 1985, the 11-seed is 73-67-4 ATS while the 9-seed is 73-68-3 ATS. In addition, to further bolster its rep as being the toughest matchup to forecast, the 9-seed is also 73-71 SU in the first-round matchup over that time frame.
The applicable games this season are:
— (8) Seton Hall vs. (9) TCU
TCU has played in 13 NCAA Tournament games all-time, with four of them coming since 1985; in those contests, they went 2-2 ATS and 1-3 SU
— (8) San Diego State vs. (9) Creighton
Creighton has played in 37 NCAA Tournament games all-time, with 23 of them coming since 1985; in those contests, they went 7-14-2 ATS and 8-15 SU.
— (8) North Carolina vs. (9) Marquette
North Carolina lost as 2-point favorites to Wisconsin in the Round of 64 in last year’s tournament (also an 8-seed).
— (8) Boise State vs. (9) Memphis
Memphis has played in 60 NCAA Tournament games all-time, with 45 of them coming since 1985; in those contests, they went 22-23 ATS and 27-18 SU.
— (6) Alabama vs. (11) Rutgers/Notre Dame
Alabama went 1-2 ATS and 2-1 SU in the tournament last year, beating Maryland and Iona before losing to UCLA in the Sweet 16 (favorites in all three games).
— (6) Texas vs (11) Virginia Tech
Texas lost and did not cover as 8.5-point favorites against Abilene Christian in the Round of 64 last year.
— (6) LSU vs (11) Iowa State
LSU went 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU in the tournament last year, covering as 2-point favorites versus St. Bonaventure before losing and not covering as 4.5-point underdogs against Michigan.
— (6) Colorado State vs. (11) Michigan
Michigan went 2-2 ATS and 3-1 SU in the tournament last season, defeating Texas Southern, LSU, and Florida State before losing to UCLA in the Elite 8 (favorites in all four games).
So which of these ATS seeding trends do you like; the No. 9, No. 11 or No. 12 seeds? Regardless of which way you go, make sure to place your bets at FOX Bet.
Other quick March Madness tidbits:
- Since 1985, a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in every NCAA Men's Tournament except for two (1995, 2007).
- A double-digit seed has reached the Final Four in three of the last five NCAA Men's Tournaments (No. 10 Syracuse in 2016, No. 11 Loyola-Chicago in 2018 and No. 11 UCLA in 2021).
- A 10-seed has advanced in every NCAA Men's Tournament but one (2007) since 2005, including Rutgers and Maryland last season.
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