NCAA Tournament odds: 3 reasons to bet on Duke against North Carolina

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels will square off Saturday night for the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament.

If that doesn't get you excited to bet, you may want to check your pulse.

FOX Bet opened Duke as a 4-point favorite with a total of over/under 150. After some solid back-and-forth action, the spread has settled at Blue Devils -4.5. The total is up a full point to 151, with a couple of offshore shops currently at 151.5.

So when it comes to betting on the Big Game taking place Saturday, I have you covered. Here are three reasons why the Blue Devils will win the game and cover — with odds via FOX Bet.

North Carolina's surprise run to the Final Four caused bookmakers to overcompensate the Tar Heels' rating and shorten this spread

In early March, Duke was a 3.5-point road favorite in Chapel Hill and an 11-point favorite in Coach K's last game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. I get adjusting but come on. Duke -4 on a neutral court seems shallow.

Home-court advantage in a power conference like the ACC is easily 3.5 or 4 points, which explains the gap between Duke -3.5 and Duke -11.

But if you take the Final Four line of Duke -4, that means that Duke would now be a 1-point favorite at the Dean Dome? And the Blue Devils would be -7.5 on its home floor? That doesn't even make sense.

You certainly give North Carolina tons of credit for playing above its potential, but if its power rating went up, Duke's should, too. This game's true line is probably closer to -5.5 or -6, but the sportsbooks obviously wanted to open shorter.

Duke's offense is the best in college basketball

The Blue Devils' offense has been all-worldly in the Big Dance, scoring 78, 85, 78 and 78 points in four games. They're a few biscuits in the basket away from averaging 80 a game, which is a rarity on this stage.

They're shooting an absurd 60% from two and 39% from three, and they're not settling for long jumpers. They've taken 157 twos, and 64 threes, which tells you the offense is living near the paint. Duke doesn't rely on threes. Also, Ken Pomeroy has Duke as the most efficient offense in the country.

I refuse to bet against the better team with the better players. Paolo Banchero could be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, and the Blue Devils have future lottery picks in A.J. Griffin, Jeremy Roach and maybe even Wendell Moore. That's a lot of firepower without even mentioning Mark Williams and Trevor Keels, who score over 10 points per game.

Good luck stopping all those weapons, North Carolina.

Mike Krzyzewski in the national title is better for business

Let's not ignore the elephant in the room.

Eyeballs help the NCAA's product, and nothing would bring more eyeballs to Final Four weekend than Coach K leading Duke to the national title game in his final season on the sidelines. Even Disney couldn't write a better script.

Settle down, I'm not implying that the officials will carry Duke to the final, but Krzyzewski obviously knows how to work the officials better than rookie head coach Hubert Davis does. Arguing that would be insanity.

I firmly believe that Duke will win this game, and even if the Blue Devils are up by two or three in the final minute, the odds are good that they'll cover this short number thanks to some late free throws. 

PICK: Duke (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by 4.5 points or more

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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