NCAA Tournament East Region bracket: Predictions, upsets, Purdue handed a tall task

There is one undeniably glorious thing about this year’s NCAA men's tournament: For the first time since 2017, Madison Square Garden will host the East Regional.

The Garden just brings out a different dimension to college basketball, as exemplified by the Big East Tournament over the past four decades. The last time the East Regional was at MSG, Frank Martin, Sindarius Thornwell and seventh-seeded South Carolina beat Baylor and Florida to shock the college basketball world and advance to the school’s first Final Four.

Who will cut down the nets in Manhattan two weeks from now? Here’s our preview of the East.

View the full bracket here.

How would you assess the 1-seed's path?

Purdue was the final 1-seed and the Boilermakers got hit with the hardest path of the four No. 1 seeds. Having to play Memphis — if the Tigers beat FAU — in the second round would be a tough matchup because Penny Hardaway's team would have the best guard on the floor in Kendric Davis. Then, whether it's Duke or Tennessee, the way that both those teams are defending could lead to Purdue's freshman guards getting trapped in tough situations.

I personally think it will be Duke at that point, and the Blue Devils are playing better than a No. 5 seed right now. On top of that, Marquette is 28-6 and the Big East champion, while Kansas State was one of the best teams in the Big 12 and has a terrific duo in Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. I think it's a fair path, but I think the Boilers could get challenged more than anybody.

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Of the top four seeds, who has the best draw?

The 3-seed, Kansas State … the formula to beat the Wildcats is to get into a rhythm on the perimeter and find a way to slow down the combination of Nowell and Johnson. Jerome Tang's team gets Big Sky Conference champion Montana State in the first round. The Bobcats have a big-time bucket-getter in RaeQuan Battle, but only averaged six made 3s per game and analytically was the second-to-worst 14-seed.

The Wildcats should advance and then get Kentucky or Providence next. If it's John Calipari's Cats, their variable has been the perimeter shooting of Antonio Reeves, Cason Wallace & Co. K-State's defense is flat-out better than the Wildcats', and UK has been so up and down. If it's Providence, on the other hand, the Friars have really struggled to guard as well. Because Purdue would have to go through AAC champion Memphis and Marquette would meet Michigan State in the second round, I'm going with Kansas State.

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Which team in 5-9 could be a dark horse?

Experience wins in March, right? Tom Izzo smashed Mike Krzyzewski's record of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances when it became official on Sunday night, as the Spartans were selected for a 25th straight year.

What about this Michigan State team could allow them to win multiple games? Tyson Walker. The senior has averaged 20 PPG over his last five contests and is the type of guy that can carry this team when needed. As a 7-seed, Michigan State has a solid challenge with Boogie Ellis and USC, but the matchup is manageable against a team out of the Pac-12 that hasn't been challenged outside of UCLA and Arizona.

Then, there's a potential date with Marquette, which is tough but doesn't have what Michigan State has had issues with all year: an elite, traditional big man. Avoiding Arizona and scalding hot Texas in their region is a small victory in my book, although if the Spartans don't find an answer for Tyler Kolek, they will lose.

The thing is, Michigan State doesn't get too rattled by backcourt play on the other side. Izzo is my dark horse because he's been too good for too long on this stage to not have him in that role, too.

Five must-see players in the region

For the record, I’d stack up the individual talent in this region with any of the other regions! And to think we’ll see some of these faces inside Madison Square Garden next week.

Zach Edey, Purdue: Well, this is the easiest choice among the region breakdowns. All the country's best player did in the Big Ten Tournament was post 78 points and 38 rebounds.

Tyler Kolek, Marquette: The Big East Player of the Year and conference tournament most outstanding player has totaled 261 assists to just 81 turnovers on the season. His ability to create is must-see college hoops.

Kyle Filipowski, Duke: The ACC Tournament Most Outstanding Player has been the best freshman in college hoops not named Brandon Miller, coming into Jon Scheyer’s first Blue Devils team and putting up 16 double-doubles. In the ACC Tournament, he averaged 19.7 points and 7.0 rebounds while shooting 24-of-36 (.667) from the field.

Keyontae Johnson, Kansas State: College basketball’s comeback player of the year has powered one of the best turnarounds in the sport. Johnson has averaged 19.2 points per game over his last five contests entering the tournament.

Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky: If the 6-seeded Wildcats are going to make a run, one would have to figure it starts with the defending national player of the year, who is the team's clear leader. Averaging 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds per game on 56% from the floor, Tshiebwe’s been a machine. Will he get help? Regardless, the pressure is on him for his legacy. The last thing he has yet to accomplish at Kentucky is a deep March run.

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Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek has the Golden Eagles on a roll.

Most interesting first-round matchup?

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence: Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET at Greensboro Coliseum.

It’s the Bryce Hopkins Bowl! The Friars' leading scorer and rebounder spent last year on the bench for John Calipari after coming into Lexington as a four-star recruit. After the Cats lost to 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s, Hopkins sprung into action to find a new destination, ending up with Ed Cooley. Now, the 6-foot-7 sophomore takes center stage in the tournament looking for redemption against his former school.

Nobody is dealing with more pressure to win his first-round game than Calipari. It’s always part of life at Kentucky, but especially when you compound being upset last year, missing the NCAA Tournament altogether the season before and not having a tournament due to COVID in 2020. On the flip side, there’s drama surrounding Cooley, who has been rumored to be a candidate for Georgetown’s head-coaching vacancy.

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What team should be on upset alert in the first round?

Tennessee, which plays 13th-seeded Louisiana, the Sun Belt Conference champion.

The Ragin’ Cajuns, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014, have a talented junior forward in 6-foot-11 Jordan Brown, who averages close to 20 points per game.

Rick Barnes' squad has the nation’s second-best defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. But losing two of their last three games to Missouri and Auburn, and being without star guard Zakai Zeigler (torn ACL) for the rest of the year, puts Tennessee in a tough spot in this region to begin with. If Louisiana can keep Santiago Vescovi from dictating the game, and if Brown and Terrence Lewis II can hold their own in the frontcourt, look for an upset in this one. Scoring can be so hard to come by for the Vols, and Barnes has accounted for four wins in the big dance over eight years at the helm in Knoxville.

Regional Final Prediction:

I’m going with Duke and Marquette. The Blue Devils haven’t even hit their ceiling yet and have a lead guard in Jeremy Roach who has NCAA Tournament experience to lead them. On the other side, Marquette’s draw is solid, and I believe the Golden Eagles’ improvement on the defensive end has made them a legitimate Final Four contender.

Prediction: Duke over Marquette.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

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