NCAA Basketball: Best Bets for superb Saturday of conference play

By Fansided and Bryce Bennett/FanSided via Busting Brackets
Published

Nov 30, 2016; Bloomington, IN, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels coach Roy Williams with ESPN announcer Dick Vitale before a game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall. Indiana defeats North Carolina 76-67. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bets returns with an intriguing set of NCAA basketball games out of the Big Ten and ACC.

Last Week: 1-2

Overall 10-9

Check out past editions of this feature Week one, two, three, four, five and six.

Conference season is now in full swing and there are some great games this Saturday to pursue with your wallet. Last week, I ended up under water as Michigan State laid an egg at the Palestra against Penn State. Creighton was an easy money win over Providence. IN the night cap, Houston laid down at home against Cincinnati. I probably underestimated the power of the Bearcats in that match-up. That is a really good team.

Moving forward to this week, Best Bets went with picks for a set of three intriguing games, two from the ACC and one “sure fire” bet from the Big Ten.

The first ACC match-up is a barnburner from Louisville. The Cardinals will take on the Blue Devils from the KFC Yum! Center. The second game will feature one of the surprise teams in the country, Florida State, as they travel to Chapel Hill to face off against North Carolina. In the Big Ten, Minnesota looks to get back on track as they go to Happy Valley to play Penn State. Take a took at what I think will happen on the next couple of slides.

Feb 10, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Gophers head coach Richard Pitino in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota (Even) at Penn State

This one is the “sure thing” pick of the week. Despite a 15-3 overall mark and a road win at Purdue, Vegas still hasn’t adjusted its perceptions of the Golden Gophers. This is a line that might have been seen last season when both teams were struggling at the bottom of the Big Ten.

This season though? I am shocked that this line is even. Like previously mentioned, they’ve won 15 games and their only losses this season were to Michigan State (twice) and at Florida State. This is a young and talented team, who should make the NCAA Tournament.

Penn State stung us last week with a nice, emotional victory over Michigan State at the Palestra in Philadelphia. This week they return home to Happy Valley with a nice opportunity to get over .500 in conference play.

I don’t see it happening. I think Minnesota’s guards Nate Mason and Amir Coffey will have nice games and their big men Jordan Murphy and Reggie Lynch will alter shots and grab rebounds.

For Penn State, it will need a huge game from Shep Garner and Payton Banks to help spread the floor. Their bigs will need to size up against a talented front line, and that is where I see the weakness in the Nittany Lions.

I expect this game to be close through the middle of the second half with Minnesota pulling ahead to a comfortable 7-10 point win.

Pick: Minnesota (Even)

Next: 9 Florida State at 11 North Carolina

Feb 14, 2016; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton reacts during the game against the Miami Hurricanes at the Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

9 Florida State at 11 North Carolina (-7.5)

Well, here’s a fun one.

An early season battle for ACC supremacy goes down in Chapel Hill as the upstart Seminoles will test their road mettle by playing in one of the most intimidating places in all of college basketball.

What is fun about this match-up is not only that it’s a non-conventional top 10 opponent taking on the Tar Heels, but that these teams match up so evenly. North Carolina is often lauded for its length and athleticism, but the Seminoles have a squad that is just as athletic and long as the Tar Heels.

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    So how do the Seminoles beat North Carolina on their home floor? The key might actually be to slow them down.

    The Seminoles like to play fast, but so does North Carolina. There are only a select few that are able to match and beat North Carolina at its frenzied pace. As good as Florida State is, I doubt their ability to do that.

    Instead, if Florida State slows the game down, works the ball on offense for good shots and uses their length to disrupt on defense, they will have a chance today.

    However, if they are trying to take the game into the 80’s and 90’s, I think North Carolina will be able to handle them.

    Where should your money go on this one? North Carolina giving seven and a half points (eight in some books) feels like too much. I’d take Florida State to cover the spread, but North Carolina will win today in a closely contested game.

    Pick: 9 Florida State (+7.5)

    Next: 14 Louisville vs. 7 Duke

    Jan 7, 2017; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Grayson Allen (3) collides with Boston College Eagles guard Ky Bowman (0) as he drives towards the basket during the second half of their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

    14 Louisville (-4) vs. 7 Duke

    It’s still early, but this could be a “gut check” game for Duke as they travel into Louisville for this fiercely contested ACC match-up.

    The Blue Devils, who will be without Coach K for another three weeks, were blown out by Florida State earlier this week in Tallahassee. There, the Seminoles used their length and outstanding defense to defeat a more offensively talented Blue Devil team. Hmmm…what other team has outstanding length and suffocating defense?

      Louisville!

      The Cardinals, KenPom’s No. 1 defense, has annoyed teams all season with their excellent defensive ability; look at victories over teams like Purdue and Kentucky to see this on full display. Today, they will try to slow down players such as Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum.

      How will today’s game play out? Look no further than last year’s game from the KFC Yum! Center. Some of the players are not the same, but I think the outcome will reflect a similar result.

      In that match-up, Duke jumped out on the Cardinals in the first half with a blistering start offensively. Louisville took control of the second half with lock down defense, started hitting three-pointers and won the game 71-64. Today will probably follow a similar script.

      From afar, it looks like this Duke team is just keeping it together. Coach K isn’t coming back for a while, Amile Jefferson is hurt again and Grayson Allen is doing Grayson Allen things. Another blow out today could start some ugly conversations about where this team is at. I do not think it will be a blow out, but I do expect Louisville to cover.

      Pick: 14 Louisville (-4)

      Check back next week for a recap of how we finished this week and our overall record. Meanwhile, enjoy a great set of games!