NCAA Basketball: Best Bets as the top six navigate conference play

February 9, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Nigel Williams-Goss (5) moves the ball against the defense of Loyola Marymount Lions guard Jeffery McClendon (25) during the first half at Gersten Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

NCAA basketball is in full force this Saturday as the top six teams are all in conference match-ups.

Last Week: 3-1

Overall: 20-19

Check out past editions of this feature:

Week two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and ten.

With some reputation on the line last week, Best Bets needed a good week. Thanks to Tom Brady and the Patriots, our prayers were answered.

The improbable cover and win by the Patriots in Super Bowl 51 capped off a 3-1 week that saw the Hoosiers hit (even in a loss at Wisconsin) and Florida State take advantage of a bad line against Clemson. Two more points from North Carolina in a win over Notre Dame and Best Bets was looking at its second undefeated week in their last three. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, but a 75 percent win rate last week is still pretty good.

This weekend is a binge-worthy affair in college hoops. 23 of the 25 ranked teams in the AP Top 25 will square off on Saturday and Sunday. Best Bets will take a look at this week’s top six teams, their match-ups and where your money should go for a great Saturday of games.

Ready to dive in? It is off to the Big 12 in our first stop.

Jan 25, 2017; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears forward Johnathan Motley (5) celebrates with guard Manu Lecomte (20) after a foul against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

TCU Horned Frogs at No. 6 Baylor Bears (-8.5)

The Bears host the surging Horned Frogs at 2 p.m. from Waco in this surprise top-half Big 12 match-up.

I call it a surprise because neither team was expected to be this good in 2016-17. Coach Scott Drew built his team largely on three-star recruits but has five wins against top 25 opponents this season and the nation’s 6th best defense, according to KenPom.

Coach Jamie Dixon has begun to mold his style into the Horned Frogs, as TCU enters this affair as winners of three-in-a-row and in the middle of a potential NCAA Tournament bid.

Expect both coaches to be in the conversation for National Coach of the Year at the end of the season.

What can we expect from a gambling side of things on Saturday afternoon?

Beware of the Bears at home against the spread. Since the new year, Baylor has averaged a line of -10.3 at home and their record to show for it? 0-5. Baylor has not covered a home spread since December 14th against Southern. TCU is a more respectable 3-2 on the road against the spread over their last five games.

With this in mind, I think TCU keeps it close enough to cover the 8.5 points. I do not think they will necessarily win the game, but Coach Dixon’s crew, with scrap and fight, will keep this one close. Keep with the trends here and take the points.

Pick: TCU (+8.5)

Next: No. 5 Oregon Ducks (-3) at USC Trojans

Feb 2, 2017; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman talks with a referee during the second half of the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks won 71-70. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Oregon Ducks (-3) at USC Trojans

What a brutal loss for the Ducks on Thursday.

Clutch plays by Lonzo Ball and a blown 19-point first half lead doomed Oregon at Pauley Pavilion this past week. Less than 48 hours later, Oregon will face USC on the road.

The USC Trojans possess a gaudy record, 21-4, but have not earned the same respect as other teams with similar records. A key reason could be their strength of schedule. USC’s SOS, according to RPI, is ranked 120th in the country. Their non-conference SOS comes in at 167th. To give a comparison, Florida State, who has the same record, has a SOS rank of 25 and is comfortably in the AP Top 25. USC is still receiving votes.

Expect a raucous crowd at USC and a Trojan team that will give the Ducks their best shot. A victory over the Ducks today would give the Trojans their best win on the season and solidify them as a top 25 squad capable of competing with the best in the Pac 12.

Oregon has a lot to gain from a victory today as well. With their loss to UCLA, the Pac-12 standings put the Ducks a game behind Arizona, a team they destroyed at home last weekend. Arizona has a sneaky tough home game against Cal today, but the Ducks do not want to potentially fall two games behind with five games to go.

From a gambling side of things, it seems to favor the Ducks. Oregon is 8-2 overall against the spread in their last 10 games. The Ducks even have good marks on the road. Oregon is 4-1 on the road over their last five. In those five games, they were favored four times.

USC is a more pedestrian 8-8 at home this season. At home, the Trojans are 2-3 over their last five. Oregon has won the spread against USC over their last four meetings. All games they were favored in by an average of five points.

I think this will be a hard fought and close game throughout, but expect Oregon to pull away towards the end and in an end of game fouling situation, expect the Ducks to cover.

Pick: Oregon Ducks (-3)

Next: Miami Hurricanes at No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-10.5)

Dec 17, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino (R) talks with guard Tony Hicks (1) during the second half against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels at KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals won 87-56. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Hurricanes at No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-10.5)

Interesting match up here for two top half teams in the ACC.

Louisville is expected to be back at full strength with the return of guard Quentin Snider. Key players such as Deng Adel and Mangok Mathiang also return after a team suspension.

Their return is timely for a couple reasons. Earlier this week, the Cardinals were blown out at Virginia with three players absent. Also, their opponent today, the Miami Hurricanes, is red hot as of late.

The Hurricanes have won four out of their last five games, with victories over teams such as North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Coach Jim Larranaga has his squad playing their best ball of the season.

After the suspensions and injuries, this Cardinals team should have the attention from coach Rick Pitino this afternoon. Expect a crisp Louisville team, who probably got an earful after their loss to Virginia this week.

Louisville will try to speed up the Hurricanes and force them into some careless turnovers. Miami has the length and build to handle some of Louisville’s pressure, but the Hurricanes do average 13 turnovers a game. Their three-guard starting backcourt accounts for over half that average.

Even with Miami playing well, I think Louisville rolls today by around 15 points. The Cardinals are 3-1 over their last four home games against the spread. On the year, they are 11-4 against the spread at home. Take Louisville giving the points at home.

Pick: Louisville Cardinals (-10.5)

Next: No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Jan 21, 2017; Lawrence, KS, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Frank Mason (0) drives to the basket as Texas Longhorns guard Andrew Jones (1) defends during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks won 79-67. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

This line feels too low. Yes, the Jayhawks have not exactly lit up college basketball after a great win at Kentucky two weekends ago, yet I expected this line to be more in the -7.5-8.5 range.

Texas Tech is a decent team. Coach Chris Beard has greatly improved the Red Raiders this season and a victory today would give their NCAA Tournament hopes a jolt of energy for a team that is 16-8 overall and 4-7 in conference.

Still, I think the Jayhawks are a pretty safe pick here. Kansas is 5-1 against the spread against Texas Tech over their last six games. Five of those games were spreads that were double digits.

I see today’s game as one that Kansas mostly controls. I think they will maintain a comfortable lead (6-8 points) throughout. Texas Tech will make various runs to get the game within one possession, but players such as Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson will have answers. Expect Texas Tech to try and muddy up the game to keep possessions low, but it shouldn’t matter. The Red Raiders’ defense is not good enough (KenPom No. 63) to stand up to the multitude of offensive options Bill Self has at his disposal.

Pick: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-5) at No. 24 Xavier Musketeers

Things looked bleak for the Musketeers after a loss to crosstown rival Cincinnati a few weeks ago. The Musketeers were 14-6 and directionless. Shortly after, sophomore guard Edmund Sumner tore his ACL in a road win at St. John’s.

Even with these hardships, the Musketeers have reeled off four-in-a-row and now stand a chance to get within a half game of the Big East lead as the reigning champs roll into the Cintas Center this afternoon.

Xavier was one of the few teams to beat Villanova last season. It did so behind a raucous hometown crowd. Today, the crowd will return, but Xavier will need to rely on young pieces to hang with the Wildcats.

Villanova has also won four-in-a-row and look poised to regain their number one ranking should Gonzaga slip against Saint Mary’s. The veteran-laden crew is battle tested on the road and has proven they can handle any environment.

I think this one will start out well for Xavier in the beginning. The crowd will be rocking and the young Musketeers will use that energy to perhaps jump out on Villanova early. However, as the game wears on, expect the Wildcats to slowly take control. Xavier is 0-4 against the spread this season as an underdog.

I expect Villanova to cover, but it will not be easy. Kudos to the Musketeers for turning their season around under difficult circumstances.

Pick: Villanova Wildcats (-5)

Next: No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3.5) at No. 20 Saint Mary's Gaels

Feb 2, 2017; Provo, UT, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Nigel Williams-Goss (5) celebrates after scoring during the second half against the Brigham Young Cougars at Marriott Center. The Bulldogs won 85-75. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3.5) at No. 20 Saint Mary’s Gaels

Now for Saturday’s main event.

The Bulldogs are undefeated but face their toughest test tonight from McKeon Pavilion.