Men's College Hoops Spotlight: Michigan Setback Sparks Lessons, Shot at Redemption

An unmistakable sense of grandeur radiated from Capital One Arena on Saturday when then-No. 1 Michigan battled then-No. 3 Duke in a rare, late-season non-conference game that felt like a legitimate Final Four preview. 

The former arrived in Washington, D.C., having blitzed through the regular season with just a single loss, boggling analytical minds across the sport with a profile of advanced metrics that is among the best in modern history. The latter is arguably college basketball’s biggest, most recognizable brand — five-time winners of the national championship — and has a singular talent in freshman forward sensation Cameron Boozer, the front-runner to win the Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year.

It was easy to understand why the winner of such a titanic clash would be labeled the best team in the country, an overwhelming favorite to claim the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

For now, and perhaps a good while longer, that anointment belongs to Duke, which muscled its way to a 68-63 win by dominating the glass, clamping down on Michigan’s guards and limiting the Wolverines to just 28.6% shooting in the second half of an exceptionally physical game. The guttural reactions from several Blue Devils’ players after the final buzzer sounded offered a window into how important such a victory was, both practically and psychologically, regardless of whether it took place in February or March. 

For the Wolverines, whose players have begun referring to themselves as the "best team ever assembled," the uneven nature of their performance invited questions about just how transferrable Michigan’s dominance might be when facing elite competition outside the Big Ten. 

"We know more about our team now," Michigan coach Dusty May said in the post-game news conference. "We’ll be better because of this game. Overall, we didn’t rebound the way we needed to and we made some timely errors. And when you’re playing someone like Duke, they make you pay for every mistake, and they did that tonight. 

"But I thought we fought, I thought we competed, we overcame some adversity, we stayed together. And like I said, there [are] several learning lessons that we’ll have from this film and from this game the way it felt live."

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Despite an uncomfortable cloud of introspection that seemed to linger over May and Michigan forwards Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. during Saturday’s media session, where they fielded numerous pointed questions about a performance that was uncharacteristically poor in several areas, it’s important to understand how strong Michigan’s résumé still is, the loss to Duke notwithstanding. 

At 26-2 overall and 16-1 in the Big Ten, the Wolverines remain entrenched as the strongest analytical team in the country across numerous databases: No. 1 in the NET Rankings, No. 1 in KenPom, No. 1 in Torvik, No. 1 on EvanMiya.com. Their overall adjusted efficiency margin of +38.41 is the third-highest of any team in the last 30 years, trailing only 2024-25 Duke (+39.29) and 1998-99 Duke (+43.01), though it’s worth noting that neither of those squads won national titles. After disposing of Minnesota with a 77-67 victory on Tuesday night, which secured at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title, Michigan is still the only team in the country ranked among the top five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

The Wolverines are more than worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, even if their chance of earning the top overall seed might have slipped away.

"Whether we won this or we lost it," May said, "it’s going to be [about] what can we learn from it and let’s turn the page. Obviously, we want the best seed, and we want more optionality across the board, but it’s over now. Am I glad we lost? No. Are there a lot of lessons we can learn? Absolutely."

So what are some of the uncomfortable truths that Michigan must sit with following its high-profile loss to Duke? In a macro sense, the Wolverines will continue to claw against the idea that their otherworldly predictive metrics and stunning margins of victory were built from a schedule largely devoid of elite competition. Only one of Michigan’s non-conference victories this season — a 101-61 bludgeoning of Gonzaga on a neutral floor — came against a team currently ranked in the AP Top 25 poll; and a power conference coach recently told me that he doesn’t believe this year’s Bulldogs, who now sit 10th on KenPom, are among the best handful of rosters head coach Mark Few has had during his storied career. 

Additional non-conference victories over Wake Forest, TCU, San Diego State and Auburn all aged poorly. That the Wolverines have also feasted on what KenPom deems the easiest conference slate of any team in the Big Ten is another point of concern entering Friday’s tricky road game against No. 10 Illinois (8 p.m. ET on FOX). 

Which is why several of the comments from May and his players following the loss to Duke were rather concerning when viewed through the prism of the Wolverines’ first championship-caliber test outside the Big Ten.

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May acknowledged that Michigan was unable to generate any semblance of offensive rhythm beyond the opening few minutes and said that the Blue Devils were "quicker to the ball and more physical than us," an opinion cemented by the Wolverines’ minus-13 margin on the glass. 

Lendeborg admitted that Duke’s defense was "a lot better than everybody else in the Big Ten so far" and said he was surprised at how easily Michigan’s own defense, which ranks second nationally in efficiency, conceded 34 points in the paint. Johnson suggested that everything about the Wolverines’ trajectory changed when center Aday Mara committed a third foul in the opening half, fundamentally altering May’s rotations and substitution patterns. 

"We’ve got a lot to fix," Lendeborg said. 

Those who have spent the preceding months searching for dents in Michigan’s heretofore impregnable armor often pointed to things like the absence of an elite guard, inconsistent 3-point shooting, the occasional laissez-faire moments from Lendeborg and the bouts of foul trouble for Mara as potential pitfalls. 

All of those issues seemingly surfacing on the same afternoon against Duke, a legitimate national championship contender, has to be at least mildly concerning for May and his staff. The Wolverines' five backcourt players produced just 19 combined points and shot 2-for-14 from beyond the arc. Lendeborg scored 15 points in the opening 11 minutes and only managed six more for the remainder of the game, while Mara finished with his lowest single-game rebounding total (four) in more than a month while fouls limited him to six minutes in the first half. 

All told, Michigan’s average of 1.02 points per possession made the loss to Duke its least-efficient offensive performance since Nov. 14 against TCU and its third-worst of the entire season.

But despite all of those ugly statistics — and despite an end result that left a sour taste in the Wolverines’ mouths — it’s worth remembering that Michigan only lost by five to perhaps the best team and best player in the country. May’s group proved that it can hang with anyone on any given night, even without playing high-quality basketball. And that’s why, come March and maybe even April, the Wolverines will likely have a shot at redemption against Duke or another team like it. 

"I’m sure there [are] a lot of things we can learn from, you know?" Johnson said. "And the loss, I think, is going to pull us together and let us know we got each other’s back because a lot of us made mistakes in the game. But we’ll be all right when the time comes to play them again."